It’s a hectic week for me in the real world so I’m going to take it a bit easy and recharge the batteries, but here are some quick thoughts:

- UFC 119 was awful.
- My picks were terrible.
- Dunham was robbed.
- What possessed Lytle to get those tattoos at age 36?
- Contrary to my original thought, the bell may toll for Bader – and not Jon Jones.
- Main event was painful, but anyone who says worst ever hasn’t seen Sylvia/Arlovski 3.
- I strongly dislike Frank Mir.
- The Giants sucked.
- The Giants may just suck altogether.
- The KFC Double Down is amazing.

Here are some WEC picks for what should be a great card:

- Aldo over Gamburyan, TKO, Rd. 3
- Varner over Cerrone, Decision
- Torres over Valecia, submission, Rd. 2
- Korean Zombie over Roop, Decision
- Hominick over Garcia, Decision

I’ll be back Friday with some WEC thoughts, a review of Snooki vs. Angelina and Week 4 NFL picks.

Stay lucky,
Ken

You know, about a week ago I was ready to write this card off completely.  As usual though, I’ve talked myself into it being a barn-burner event with a ton of competitive fights.  I am a puppet and Dana is the puppeteer.

I’m skipping the prelims this time around because, well, I completely forgot to do them.  Much love to C.B. Dollaway though – haters gonna hate, son.

Here are my picks…

1) Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens

How we got here:

I forget who, but someone called someone out in this one. I think it may have been Stephens calling out Guillard after the Stout fight – but I could be wrong.

In any event, Joe Silva thought putting two exciting bangers against each other was a fine idea – so here we are. There has also been quite a bit of trash talk among these two going into Saturday. Pretty sure we can expect fireworks.

What’s at stake:

Both fighters are on a two-fight win streak against mediocre competition. The implications of this fight are identical for both men: Win and stay on the main card and get labeled a ‘contender’. Lose and it’s back to the prelims and continue to look like a fighter who chokes in big spots.

The breakdown:

If you’re a fan of grappling, you may want to run out for some dip during this one. This hits the canvas only because one man falls there as a result of losing touch with consciousness.

The funny thing is that trying to take this fight to the ground would be a sound strategy for both guys. I don’t see either being able to do much off their backs and whoever was on top would have a chance at some lethal ground ‘n pound.

Alas, such logic is beyond these two and we will instead see a highly entertaining brawl with each man swinging for the fences. We know they both have power and are planning on using it.

I say:

This is a tough one to call, but in the end I see Melvin landing something that puts Jeremy to bed.

Stephens is coming off a big win over the more technical Sam Stout, but the Canadian didn’t possess the power that Lil’ Heathen will be facing Saturday night. I think his time with Greg Jackson has helped Melvin seal up some of his deficiencies in his boxing and he should be able to avoid the heavy shots from Jeremy. Look for the Young Assassin to use his speed and catch the Iowa native in the second with a hook and follow up with punches on the ground to end it.

Prediction: Guillard, TKO, Rd. 2

2) Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

How we got here:

Evan Dunham has been on an absolute tear taking out four straight UFC opponents in impressive fashion. He is 11-0 and is in need of a top-level name.

Enter Sean Sherk who has not been seen in over a year since being shocked by now UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar.

What’s at stake:

For Dunham, a win would mean just one or two more victories until he challenges for the gold.

For Sherk, defeating Dunham would show the world that the 37-year-old still has something left in the gas tank and has what it takes to challenge the young lions who are quickly filling up the division.

The breakdown:

Evan will have an enormous reach advantage which will be a problem for Sherk who has favored his boxing in recent years. On the wrestling front, Sean should have the advantage. However, putting Dunham on his back is always a scary thought given his grappling prowess.

Injuries are a huge question for the Muscle Shark. He has pulled out of three consecutive fights due to injury and if he is not 100% on Saturday he has virtually no chance.

I say:

I don’t know why I keep picking the old guys in these ‘grizzled vet vs. young gun’ fights, but I’m going to do it again. Look for some old-school Sherk who repeatedly double legs Dunham and shows vintage top control in route to a decision win.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

3) Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

How we got here:

These two fought four years ago to a controversial decision in the finals of TUF4. Serra was given the nod in a fight where there wasn’t a clear cut winner. The decision would end up changing the UFC Welterweight division forever. (I won’t get into details since as far as I’m concerned TUF4 never happened.)

Anyway, both are coming off wins and since there isn’t much else for them to do at the moment, the UFC decided to run a rematch. Not a bad idea.

What’s at stake:

Not a whole lot to be terribly honest.

I think both men are winding down their careers and we know where both stand at this point. Lytle will be an experienced gamer for years to come. He will put up a fight against anyone in the division and make a nice living off ‘…of the night’ bonus checks. Serra will be a part-time fighter who has a chance no matter who he’s in there with thanks to heavy hands and top-level BJJ. He’s also going to give great sound bites for as long as he’s involved in the sport.

Still, a win or loss here isn’t going to change either man’s standing in the division. If nothing else, at least it will give some closure to a decision that left a bad taste in a lot of fans mouths four years ago.

The breakdown:

Given there is little on the line here as opposed to last time, you can expect both men to open up a bit more this time around. It should lead to an entertaining scrap.

Lytle is the more technical boxer of the two and will likely look to overwhelm Serra on the feet. Chris is a black belt in BJ, but not at the level of Matt. He would be a fool to want to take his chances on the ground with The Terror.

Matty is no slouch in the boxing department himself and probably has the heavier hands of the two. He looked great in knocking out Frank Trigg, but my instincts tell me he would rather get this to the canvas to give himself a better chance at victory. I just hope that strategy doesn’t lead to 100 foot stomps like last time did.

I say:

Finishing Chris Lytle is about as hopeless an endeavor as it gets, but I think Serra can grind a decision. Lytle will get the better of the stand-up and after not finding his home run shot, Serra will look to take things to the ground. My fellow Islander will get things to the ground easier this time around and grind to a decision.

Prediction: Serra, Decision

Fun Fact: Number of Fights since the TUF4 Finale – Lytle 11, Serra 4

4) Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

How we got here:

After an impressive knockout of Keith Jardine, Ryan Bader was in need of a ‘next step’ fight.

Perennial top-ten light-heavyweight Lil’ Nog will give him this fight. Antonio is coming off an uninspired performance against Jason Brilz where he scored a decision win in a fight that many people say he lost. He will look to re-cement himself as a contender in this bout.

What’s at stake:

The winner will most likely fight Jon ‘Bones’ Jones.

If Bader wins, a Jones vs. Darth fight would showcase two of the hottest young talents in the sport. And, if Nog is victorious, a clash with Greg Jackson’s star pupil will mark the biggest test for Jones to date.

Most importantly, a battle with Angry Jonny would likely be a #1 contender’s fight.

The breakdown:

Nogueira has the more technical boxing of the two, but Bader could put you to sleep at any time. Ryan is also improving his stand-up with each fight – the same can’t be said for the Brazilian.

The wrestling advantage will go to the All-American from ASU. He should be able to take Nog down at will, but playing on the mat with a Nogueira Brother is always a dangerous proposition.

It will be interesting to see where Bader decides he has a better chance of winning.

I say:

In the end, I think Ryan decides he would rather win this on the canvas than on the feet. He will bring down Rogerio early using his superior wrestling to score the takedowns along with his strength and underrated BJJ to stay out of submission attempts. Look for this to go on the full 15. Darth will apply some serious ground ‘n pound throughout as he notches his biggest win to date and announces his presence to the division with authority.

Prediction: Bader, Decision (Listen for the bell, Bonesy. It told for thee.)

5) Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipovic

How we got here:

This one was originally scheduled to be Frank Mir vs. Big Nog which would have given me a chance at vindication. Unfortunately, an injury to Antonio forced him to pull out of this fight.

Joe Silva put in a collect call to Croatia and got everyone’s favorite politician/fighter, Mirko CroCop, to step up to the plate. (Note: it’s not that hard to get that title when your only competition is Matt Lindland and Chael Sonnen.)

What’s at stake:

Surprisingly a lot.

It’s arguable that whoever wins could be set-up for a number one contender fight to be third in line after Cain and JDS.

The loser, however, will find themselves at a crossroads of their career. If Mirko loses, I can’t imagine him fighting again. And if Mir goes down, it will be a long time before he has another relevant fight.

The breakdown:

CroCop wants this on the feet at all costs. Finding himself on his back with Mir on top is basically a death sentence. He hasn’t been as sharp as he once was, but Mirko is still dangerous with his hands and I’m willing to bet the left-high kick still packs a wallop.

Mir has a bit more versatility on where he can be in this fight. While being on the ground would give him a decided advantage, he has shown some pretty good stand-up skills lately. Given that we are looking at an older, more injured CroCop, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Frank can hang with him standing.

I say:

I’m looking for some Croatian violence in this one. Mir will get cute with his stand-up early on to show he can go toe-to-toe with the most feared striker in MMA history. This will get him in trouble as CroCop finds a home for his left hand on Frank’s cranium in the second round. From there, Mir will realize he needs to get things to the mat, but it will be too little too late as a now confident Mirko stuffs a takedown and gives a brutal stand-up beating to end things. And, for old time’s sake, let’s say he finishes with his patented LHK.

Prediction: CroCop, TKO, Rd. 2

Enjoy Saturday everyone!

Stay lucky,
Ken

UFC 118 is Saturday.  Let’s make some picks.

I tried to spruce these up a bit, let me know what you think…

1) Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

How we got here:

After an impressive UFC welterweight debut against Rory Markham, Nate Diaz was ready for a bigger test and Marcus Davis is the man to give it to him.

Davis fell on hard times a few fights back, but recently returned to the win column with a victory over Jonathan ‘Glass Joe’ Goulet.  It’s now time for Marcus to try his luck against a big name opponent.

I also feel like there was some name calling that spawned this match-up, but I may just be imagining that given a Diaz is involved.

What’s at stake:

A win for Nate solidifies him as a legitimate player at 170 and may end his days at lightweight.

For Marcus, a victory puts him back in the middle of the pack where he was for the majority of 2006-2008.

The breakdown:

Despite what some are saying, I do not believe Nate holds an advantage wherever this fight goes.  Marcus is by far the superior boxer and should get the better of the stand-up, reach disadvantage notwithstanding.

On the ground, this is no contest.  While Davis has shown himself to be slippery on the canvas, he is not in Nate’s league.  Diaz’s main objective should be to shoot, trip or throw the Hand Grenade to the ground however he can.

I say:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

2) Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

How we got here:

Demian was originally scheduled to face Alan Belcher in the next Fight Night Main event, but injury sidelined the Mississippian.

Joe Silva did some shuffling and Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares is the Fight Night feature bout and Miranda was matched up with Maia.

What’s at stake:

Maia needs this win after getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva in the infamous UFC 112 main event.  He absolutely cannot afford to lose this fight to a relatively no-name fighter or he risks falling off the map.

Miranda on the other hand can go into this fight with nothing to lose.  Despite a UFC win and an impressive 10-1 record, very few fans know who Mario is.  He now has a chance to pull off the upset and make his presence known.

The breakdown:

Miranda has the striking edge, but Maia has shown improving hands as of late.  Enough to keep him out of trouble.

On the ground, Maia vs. Miranda is roughly equivalent to me vs. a 4-year-old.

I say:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

3) Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

How we got here:

This time last year Kenny Florian was getting trounced by B.J. Penn in his second lightweight title fight.  Since then, he has dominated Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi.  He is now one win away from his third shot at gold.

After his stint on TUF5, Gary Maynard has gone 7-0-1 in the UFC.  Credentials like that usually give a fighter a title shot, but lackluster decision wins have caused the Bully to take the long road to the championship and a fight against Kenny.

What’s at stake:

The next UFC lightweight title shot.

The breakdown:

Can Ken-Flo beat an elite wrestler?  The age-old question will get answered Saturday.

If Gray is smart he takes this to the ground quick and often.  Kenny’s stand-up has been on fire lately and Maynard would be smart to avoid it.

On the ground, Gray has shown the ability to stay out of subs with his smothering style.  It may not be the most exciting, but he is undefeated.  He will need to employ this to get the win – no matter how ugly it may look.

For Kenny, expect him to show the boxing which has looked so good in recent fights.  I don’t think he will be busting out those muay-thai kicks and risk getting taken to the ground.

If Maynard leaves even the slightest of openings for Kenny to score a takedown you can expect the Flo to go for it.  He has not been afraid to test his wrestling skills in the past.  Sometimes he’s successful – Guida.  And sometimes he’s not – Penn.  One thing is for sure, if Gray finds himself on the bottom at any point of this fight he is in deep, deep trouble.

I say:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Randy Couture vs. James Toney

How we got here:

A few months back, James Toney chased Dana White across the country until he got a contract.

Randy got here because he is a big name and probably one of the worst match-ups for the boxing champion.

What’s at stake:

Given how the UFC has promoted this as MMA vs. boxing, the legitimacy of the sport is somewhat on-the-line.  If the Natural gets knocked out, it fuels the fire of boxing fans who in the last 3 or 4 years have had very little to defend their dying sport with against MMA.

No pressure Randy…

The breakdown:

It doesn’t get much more academic than this:

If this fight stays standing longer than 3 minutes: Randy gets the lights turned off.
If this fight stays on the ground for longer than 3 minutes: Toney gets pounded out.

Simple.

I say:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

5) Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

How we got here:

Back at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, Frankie Edgar did the unthinkable when he outlasted then champion B.J. Penn to capture the UFC lightweight title.

The result was controversial so we are now running this thing back in Boston.

What’s at stake:

For B.J.: The opportunity to reclaim his place as the lightweight king.

For Frankie: The opportunity to show the world Abu Dhabi was no fluke.

For both: The UFC lightweight title.

The breakdown:

This is pretty similar to the first fight in the sense that it would appear B.J. is better in all aspects.

So how did Frankie win the first fight?

He won by sticking and moving.  He went inside and was out before B.J. could get a word in edgewise.  He mixed in some well-timed takedowns to score points and was the more aggressive fighter.  Basically, he made it appear like he was the winner and fought the perfect fight.

It will be tough to do that again.

I say:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I will be watching this one in Baltimore with 14 of my peeps after our fantasy football draft.  Big fight atmosphere baby!

Enjoy the fights all.

Stay lucky,
Ken

UFC 118 is a few days away so let’s take a quick look at the prelims:

Spike TV Prelims

1) Nik Lentz vs. Andre Winner

Lentz has the wrestling advantage for sure coming out of Minnesota Martial Arts Academy. Winner will be the better striker, but his problems will be keeping the fight upright.

In the end, Lentz grinds to a decision.

Prediction: Lentz, Decision

2) Gabe Reudiger vs. Joe Lauzon

I’m pumped for this one as my maaaaain man Joe Lauzon makes his return to the Octagon to take on Gabe Reudiger who hasn’t fought in the UFC in four years. Unless you count his stint on TUF5 – which I’m sure Gabe tries to forget everyday.

Joe took a beating at the hands of Sam Stout in his last fight, but I am confident he will be much better in his second bout back after a year on the shelf due to injury. Gabe has won six in a row in the minor leagues, but he will not be able to handle Joe’s grappling in this one.

Prediction: Lauzon, submission, Rd. 2

By the way, this card has four TUF5 fighters (Lauzon, Reudiger, Maynard and Diaz) and one TUF5 coach (Penn). That might be a record for a PPV– though I am too lazy to research it.

Under card

3) Nick Osipczak vs. Greg Soto

Osipczak – though a complete dick – isn’t half bad. He gave Matt Riddle his only loss and took the highly touted Rick Story to a split decision.

I see the Brit outclassing Soto wherever the fight goes and eventually ending things with some dynamic striking and ground ‘n pound.

Prediction: Osipczak, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Dan Miller vs. John Salter

After 3 straight victories to start his UFC career, Miller has dropped a trio of fights. This is do or die time for the Dirty Jerz native. If he losses this one, the pink slip will be waiting in the locker room.

And you know what? I think Salter has got this.

These will be two similar styles, but Salter will get the better of what turns into an ugly kickboxing match to score the decision.

Prediction: Salter, Decision

5) Amilcar Alves vs. Mike Pierce

I really don’t know a lot about either guy, but Pierce put up a helluva fight against Jon Fitch in December and then beat Julio Paulino next time out.

So I’ll go with the American to use his wrestling to win the decision. Even though I think he may be the underdog according to Vegas.

Prediction: Pierce, Decision

Check back tomorrow for some new and improved main card picks.

Stay lucky,
Ken

Alright I haven’t had a chance to do this and don’t anticipate getting another opportunity before Saturday – so let’s try something new in the interest of time.

I’m going to predict each main card fight… in haiku.

God help us…

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

Anderson’s elite
Chael is bozo maximus
Chael’s nose gets C-shaped

Prediction: Silva, TKO, Rd. 1

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves

These two battled once
Different story this time
Alves cleans Jon’s clock

Prediction: Alves, TKO, Rd. 2

Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida

Old dog meets ‘Big Dog’
Matt goes old-school with takedowns
Top control for win

Prediction: Hughes, Decision

Junior two Saints vs. Roy Nelson

Big chance for Nelson
Junior looks untouchable
But Roy shocks the world

Prediction: Nelson, Submission, Rd. 2

Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Santos

This one should be good
Ugliest fighters alive
Clays gas tank too much

Prediction: Guida, Decision

Prelims:

- Tim Boetsch vs. Todd Brown: Boetsch, TKO, Rd. 2

- Dennis Hallman vs. Ben Saunders: Saunders, TKO, Rd. 1

- Dustin Hazelett vs. Rick Story: Hazelett, Submission, Rd. 1

- Johny Hendricks vs. Charlie Brenneman: Hendricks, Decision

- Christian Morecraft vs. Stefan Struve: Struve, Submission, Rd. 2

- Rodney Wallace vs. Phil Davis: Davis, TKO, Rd. 1

Closing Haiku

Can’t wait for this card
Gonna eat so many wings
Post-mortem next week

Stay lucky,
Ken

It is almost upon us – August 2010 – one of the most jam-packed months of MMA in recent memory.  And how are we kicking things off?  Try a free event showcasing the hottest prospect in the game today and a tremendous middleweight match-up that will propel one man into contention.

In the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas – ‘we’re there, man!’

Let’s make some picks for UFC on Versus 2.

Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

Like any good MMA fan, I get a chubby at the mere mention of the name Jon ‘Bones’ Jones.  What he has done since entering the UFC has been nothing short of awe-inspiring.  The scary part?  He just turned 23 and this is only his second fight under the tutelage of Greg Jackson.  Oh… mah… gawd.

Bonesy has a chance to grow his legend even further on Sunday when he takes on wily veteran Vlad Matyushenko who is riding a two fight UFC win streak.

Too bad for Jones, his legacy takes a hit on Sunday. Matyushenko is going to take the young buck behind the woodshed and wrestle him to a decision win.

Sikkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkke!

Look, we all know there are no sure things in MMA – but I would feel very comfortable wagering a toe or two on the Bonesman.  There is absolutely no logical way Vlady wins this fight.  Jones is a better wrestler, better striker, is going to have roughly a 75 inch reach advantage and does ‘Mortal Kombat’ fatalities.

Jon out-strikes the Janitor, takes it to the ground and finishes with a TKO.  Case closed.

Prediction: Jones via TKO Rd. 1

Mark Munoz vs. Yushin Okami

After a disappointing drubbing two fights back at the hands of Chael Sonnen my main man Yushin Okami is looking to make it two wins in a row.

Standing in his way is Mark Munoz who recently was seen dropping weapons of mass destruction on the cranium of Kendall Grove in a come from behind TKO victory at UFC 112.  The former NCAA champion is now looking for his fourth win in a row in the middleweight division.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one quite a bit – in the end though, Yushin has got this.

In his last fight Okami displayed some really nice boxing which will give the still-developing striking of Munoz fits.  Kendall was able to drop the Pilipino with an uppercut and I imagine Yushin can do the same.  The wrestling department is a huge advantage for Mark, but Okami is elusive and large enough to stuff a few takedowns while constantly hitting Munoz with strikes.

Munoz will slow down towards the middle of the fight while Okami stays strong and outpoints his way to a decision.

Prediction: Okami via decision.

Jake Ellenberger vs. John Howard

These guys may not have the name recognition, but this is a juicy little fight.  Ellenberger is coming off a TKO of Mike Pyle to follow-up a razor thin decision loss to division contender Carlos Condit.  Meanwhile, Howard is an under the radar 4-0 in the UFC.  This should be good.

In the end, I like Ellenberger.  He looked great in the Condit fight and I think he gets the better of the stand-up and eventually drops Howard midway through the fight.

Prediction: Ellenberger via TKO Rd. 2.

Takanori Gomi vs. Tyson Griffin

It’s a real shame we are seeing a shell of his former self Takanori Gomi in the UFC.  I’m not quite ready to dismiss him based on his fight with Florian because Kenny makes a lot of guys look bad – but still, it’s hard to ignore his last five or so fights.

As for Tyson, his lose to Evan Dunham was a huge hit.  If he won, he would be sporting a solid three fight win streak and looking to break into contention.  Instead, he is a pedestrian 2-2 in his last four fights and finds himself in the middle of the pack once again.

Alright this is a first.  Going into this fight I picked Tyson and then switched to Gomi and actually wrote an explanation for it.  However, I forgot about the Kid’s gas tank – or lack thereof – and remembered that Griffin has cardio for days.  So I’m going back to my original pick.

Anyway, point is, Gomi may look good at the start, but Tyson will take over in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to score the win with some crisp stand-up and later some ground ‘n pound.  I think…

Prediction: Griffin, decision.

Prelims:

- Paul Kelly vs. Jacob Volkmann:
Kelly via decision – love me some Paul Kelly.  He gets the better of the stand-up and the ground.

- James Irvin vs. Igor Pokrajac:
Irvin via TKO, Rd. 2 – they will stand and bang and Igor falls first.

- Mike Massenzio vs. Brian Stann
Massenzio via decision – just a feeling.  I always find it hard to back Stann with any confidence.

- DaMarques Johnson vs. Matthew Riddle
Riddle via decision – I may be going too much with my heart here.  I love the Riddler, but Johnson has been a beast.  Still, I think Matt uses his wrestling to stay out of trouble and pick up the W.

- Darren Elkins vs. Charles Oliveira
Oliveira via TKO, Rd. 2 – this could be good.  Oliveira has the hype coming into this and I reckon he lives up to it.

- Rob Kimmons vs. Steve Steinbeiss
Kimmons via submission, Rd. 1 – Kimmons has way too much seasoning for Stevie.

Stay lucky,
Ken

We’re only a day away from UFC 116 which happens to take place on the night of the 25th anniversary of the birth of yours truly. I look forward to spending the ol’ birfday watching two mastodons try to tear each other apart in one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history.

Let’s try to pick some winners:

Heavyweight Championship Brock Lesnar © vs. Shane Carwin

I really hope they reinforce the cage for this one.

I’ve flip-flopped on this fight roughly 3,345 times since it was announced and I still don’t feel very confident. In the end though, I’m going with Brock.

Carwin throws those quadruple XLs with deadly intentions and anytime this is on the feet he has a chance to knock Brock limp. Problem for him is the more I learn about the difference between a D-I National Champion and a D-II National Champion I get the sense that Lesnar’s wrestling advantage is a vast one. Add in the fact that Lesnar is bigger, faster and more athletic and I think Brock gets this to the ground easier than expected.

From the ground he’ll land a decent amount of damage which will hurt Carwin, but more importantly, work his untested gas tank. The longer this goes on the less deadly Shane will be and the better Brocks chances will look.

In the end, Lesnar wears Shane down for the first few rounds and then ends things with a ground ‘n pound TKO late.

Prediction: Lesnar, TKO, Rd. 4

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

Every time I think I’m out of the Chris Leben business he does something to bring me back in.

The latest example of my love/hate relationship came when Leben beat Aaron Simpson in a gutsy performance at the TUF11 Finale and then agreed to this fight on two weeks notice. Atta boy, Chris.

Tell you something else… he’s going to win this fight.

Akiyama suffers from the same problem that many overseas stars have – they’re incredibly overrated by MMA message boards. (For another example see Aoki, Shinya.) Akiyama’s biggest wins are either Melvin Manhoef or Dennis Kang – take your pick. Outside of that he has beaten the likes of Masanori Tonooka (1-2), Taiei Kin (3-3) and Tokimitsu Ishizawa (1-5-1). He also stole one over Alan Belcher at UFC 100.

Two weeks off or not, Leben is going to put it on the Sexy One. I don’t think Chris is the best the UFC has to offer, but he is formidable enough and hits hard enough to put Yoshihiro on Dream Street.

After a feeling out process early, Akiyama takes the first round with his top control. However, just like in the Simpson fight, Leben comes back in the second with a knockout.

Prediction: Leben, KO, Rd. 2

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown

I love me some Chris Lytle and I don’t mind me some Matt Brown. Still, I have to question how this one got on the main card. No matter, it should be highly entertaining.

I don’t have a whole lot to say here as I think Lytle is simply better in every area.

I think these two will give us a show on the feet, but Lytle will win every exchange in route to a decision victory.

Prediction: Lytle, Decision

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar

Another questionable main card choice…

I don’t see this going much differently than the first time around. Krzysztof will get the better on the feet and Bonnar doesn’t have what it takes to get it to the ground.

It will be a sad day for Bonnar as he drops his fourth in a row. One has to wonder if the UFC would ever cut him.

Prediction: Soszynski, Decision

George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Oh baby! Can’t wait to see my maaaaiiin man Georgey S. steps back in the cage after his tremendous performance against Joe Daddy at UFC 110. It will be a tough test though as Kurt Pellegrino is on a roll, has decent stand-up and is a BJJ Black Belt. No matter, as much as I like Pellegrino I will be planted in the corner of George and the saucy-Aussie is taking home a win.

I expect this one to play out much like the Stevenson fight with George getting the better of the stand-up causing Kurt to take this one to the ground. As soon as this happens you can expect George to once again make a fellow black belt look like an amateur. He will sweep Pellegrino from the bottom and work his way to a submission win.

Prediction: Sotiropoulos, Submission, Rd. 2

Prelims:

- Brendan Shaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer:
Shaub, TKO, Rd. 1 - I like this Shaub cat.

- Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero:
Petruzelli, TKO, Rd. 2 – Seth shows good hand improvement here.

- Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic:
Reljic, TKO, Rd. 2 – Kendall’s pink slip is waiting for him in the locker room.

- Gerald Harris vs. Dave Branch:
Harris, TKO, Rd. 2 – Don’t look now, but Harris has a nice three fight win streak.

- Daniel Roberts vs. Forrest Petz:
Roberts, Decision – Petz is back, how about that?

- John Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola:
Vemola, TKO, Rd 2 – I got a feeling Vemola is a bad man.

There you go. Enjoy the fights and the holiday weekend!

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

UFC 115 is this Saturday and will be hosted by our friends to the north in Vancouver.

The main event will feature legend Chuck Liddell and quasi-legend Rich Franklin in what would have been a superfight about 5 years ago.  However, now it is merely a clash between two aging former champions on one of the most poorly promoted PPVs in quite sometime.  The bout also caps off one of the bizarre seasons of TUF that we’ve had, well, maybe ever.

Let’s make some predictions…

Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin

You know, I always hated Liddell but I’ve really come around to him since he started his downfall and given how well he came across on this season TUF.  Three years too late I guess – oh well.

As for Rich, I have always been a fan.  In my first live UFC PPV I saw him leave Nate Quarry limp on the canvas and for that he will always hold a place in my heart.  It’s a shame that the recent beatings have left him as one of MMAs most tragic figures.

Call me crazy (or a shmuck, jackass, gullible, etc.), but I have 100% bought into the Chuck ‘I am in the best shape I’ve been in years’ hype-machine.  The long layoff has done him good and he will come into this fight showing flashes of his old self.

Smart money may be on a Franklin decision win, but I think Chuck uses his classic counterpunching skills to catch Rich early and drop him.

Prediction: Liddell, TKO, Rd. 1

Mirko CroCop vs. Pat Barry

Speaking of tragic figures in MMA, former Croatian sensation Mirko CroCop will try to notch his first relevant win in about 4 years when he takes on hard-hitting kickboxer Pat Barry.

(Side note: I’m looking at Barry’s fight finder entry and 3 of his 5 career wins have come via TKO due to leg kicks.  That, my friends, is bonafide badass.)

Call me dumb (or a mark, naïve, sucker, etc.), but I have 100% bought into the CroCop ‘I am going to prove in this fight that I still have more fights in me’ hype machine.

Honestly, I don’t have much logic to back this up other than a gut feeling and I realize smart money is on a Barry KO, but CroCop has this one – mark my words.  We have a grizzled vet vs. a young upstart and CroCop is going to do Barry like Randy did Tito and Tanner did Terrell.

Prediction: CroCop, TKO, Rd. 2

Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann

I’ve read a few ‘Paulo Thiago is in no rush for his title shot’ articles this week.  Did I miss something?  Title shot?  We’re a long way from title shot talk for Paulo.

This isn’t to say Paulo isn’t good and he may very well be the most badass man in MMA given his day job as a Special Forces officer in Brazil, but Fitch tooled him and his wins over Koscheck and Swick could both be called fluky (the win over Kos more so).

In any event, the Thiago bandwagon takes a serious hit on Saturday because my maaaaain man Martin Kampmann is taking home the victory.

Martin can take a punch.  Daley caught him, but Paulo doesn’t hit like Daley and Kampamann took roughly 5,000 hard punches against McFedries and still won that fight.  So I can safely say that Thiago won’t find his patented homerun shot in this one.  As for the ground, Marty is very slippery there and he isn’t getting caught in a sub.

Despite popular opinion, the Dane’s stand-up is sounder than the Brazilians and he is going to out-strike him for three rounds and score a big decisions win.

Prediction: Kampmann, Decision

Ben Rothwell vs. Gilbert Yvel

Not much to say on this one other than it should be pretty entertaining if you like guys swinging.

I’m going to go with Yvel just because I have never been impressed with Rothwell and I want to continue my trend of picking the fighters no one is picking.

Prediction: Yvel, TKO, Rd. 1

On another note, I am not responsible for any gambling losses you incur from reading this.

Carlos Condit vs. Rory MacDonald

Dig this stat – of the 34 wins between these two men, only 1 has gone to decision.  One decision out of 34 wins!!!  That is insane.

Personally, I can’t wait for this one.  The best bet of the night is this one winning Fight of the Night because both of these guys come out guns blazing.

After a rocky start to his UFC career, Carlos Condit notched a very hard fought decision over Jake Ellenberger in his last fight and now looks to get some momentum by putting together back-to-back wins.  Standing in his way is the very highly-touted Canadian welterweight Rory MacDonald.

Carlos has this.  He is more seasoned that MacDonald and being on the main card in front of a hometown crowd is going to rattle Rory - he will not be as sharp as he usually is.

Condit will get the better of the stand-up before taking things to the ground for a TKO win via ground n’ pound.

Prediction: Condit, TKO, Rd. 3

Spike TV Prelims

Tyson Griffin vs. Evan Dunham

Don’t be cute and pick Dunham.  He looked good against Efrain Escudero, but don’t forget that Efrain had him on Dream Street and was one more solid punch from ending things.

Tyson is one of the most reliable fighters in that division.  He is solid in all areas and is going to box his way to a decision.

Prediction: Griffin, Decision

Mac Danzig vs. Matt Wiman

A very solid fight here.

Basically, Mac does everything ever so slightly better than the Handsome one.  It’s anything but guaranteed, but Danzig will get the win that vaults him back to respectability.

Prediction: Danzig, Decision

Prelims:

- David Loiseau vs. Mario Miranda: Loiseau, Decision
- James Wilks vs. Peter Sobotta: Wilks, Submission, Rd. 2
- Ricardo Funch vs. Claude Patrick: Funch, Decision
- Mike Pyle vs. Jesse Lennox: Pyle, Submission, Rd. 1

Enjoy the fights.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Many apologies for the lack of action around here. The Man has been keeping me down, but I’m back and this time I got some friends with me…

Anyway, Fight Night 19 is upon us, lets get to some picks…

Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard

This is an important fight for both men in terms of staying relevant in the division. The winner will be back on the main card while the loser will find themselves on the prelims – in Guillard’s case, possibly on the unemployment line.

It’s going to be tough for Guillard to knockout Nate, which is his only chance to win this fight. As soon as it hits the ground, even with Melvin on top, it’s over. Look for Diaz to get it to the ground midway through the first and lock in the sub.

Prediction: Diaz, Sub, Rd. 1

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta

It’s been over a year since Roger stepped inside the cage and he is going to run into a buzzsaw in what could be his last UFC appearance.

Maynard will consistently take this to the mat and smother Huerta for 15 minutes. He will work in a decent amount of ground n’ pound, but it won’t be enough to finish the tough-as-nails Matador.

Prediction: Maynard, Decision

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

I admit, I know very little of Ellenberger, but a quick look at his record shows all of his losses are to men Condit would beat (except possibly Hieron, though I think Carlos has that one).

Anyway, Carlos dominates this one with a well-rounded game and finishes with a sub in the second.

Prediction: Condit, Sub, Rd. 2

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

I have become a huge fan of Timmy since TUF7. He seems like a cool dude with a good ground game.

I think he’s in over his head here, though. Quarry is coming off a big win over Jason MacDonald. Look for the heavy-handed Nate to land midway through the second and end things.

Prediction: Quarry, TKO, Rd. 2

That’s it. Check back Thursday for afterthoughts and some UFC 103 picks.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Note: I had about a 1,500 word predictions post ready to roll and lost the entire thing last night around 11pm. I am so freaking frustrated by the whole thing that I can’t bring myself to type it all again and will instead do abbreviated picks. Just thinking about this is making me want to throw a brick through my computer… Always periodically save your work kids.

Not since UFC 85 has a card been as injury-prone as UFC 98. However, unlike 85 where the whole thing felt slapped together at the last second, 98 still looks like an awesome event – injuries be damned.

Lets give out some predictions and be sure to check back Monday for a Post-Mortem to see how I did.

The Undercard:

- George Roop def. Dave Kaplan via decision: I honestly don’t see myself ever being less interested in a fight for as long as I live.

- Yoshiyuki Yoshida def. Brandon Wolff via submission, Rd. 2: Good to see Yoshida back. He outclasses Wolff in this one.

- Krzysztof Soszynski def. Andre Gusmao via TKO, Rd. 2: I’m becoming a big fan of Krzysztof.

- Phillipe Nover def. Kyle Bradley via submission, Rd. 1: Phillipe was supposed to win TUF8, but Efrain had other plans. Still, Nover will start a very successful post-TUF career on Saturday.

- Pat Barry def. Tim Hague via TKO Rd. 1: Barry looks legit.

- Chris Wilson def. Brock Larson via decision: Just a feeling.

Main Card:

Frankie Edgar vs. Sean Sherk

Frankie is a bit too small, but has heart for days – watch Tyson Griffin put him in a kneebar for 30 seconds during their fight if you don’t believe me. A move to the WEC 145-division may be forthcoming.

Sherk is one of the best lightweight in the world no matter what anyone thinks – ‘nuf said.

I’m going to be boring and say that Sherk wins a somewhat lopsided decision through an aggressive top game and more technical boxing when things are standing.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen

Miller is an excellent grappler and has a 3-0 UFC record in less than a year with the company. The signing of the Miller brothers was a great move.

I am in no way sold on Sonnen being anything special. The only win he has against a top guy was a decision over a clearly imbalanced Paulo Filho.

It will be a stalemate on the feet and eventually Sonnen scores a takedown. This will prove fatal as the spry guard of Miller catches him in a submission.

Prediction: Miller, Submission, Rd. 2

Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Something-Pookam

I care so little about this fight that I’m not even going to find Xavier’s last name so I can paste it in. Nover or Barry should be on the main card instead.

I’ll say, for no particularly good reason, that McFedries scores the TKO in the second while getting the better of the stand-up throughout.

Prediction: McFedries, TKO, Rd. 2

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra

In one corner, a loud-mouth from Long Island. In the other, a farmboy from Illinois. Both are former champs and they are the only two men to hold victories over the greatest fighter in the world today.

Call me crazy, but I think Serra takes it. I can see Hughes having taken him lightly and not coming in on top of his game. His knee that he had surgery on will not be at 100% and his takedowns will be affected because of it. Serra drops him with a haymaker in the second and gets a submission from the top.

I know, logic says otherwise, but sometimes you need to go out on a limb.

Prediction: Serra, Submission, Rd. 2

Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida

This is going to be great – no matter what anyone says. I see it being like a great defensive battle in football. Significant offense will be at a premium and the person who makes the first mistake will likely lose.

Machida has been invincible so far and I see it continuing. He will frustrate Rashad for the first two rounds and the champ will resort to his wrestling without success. As the fight continues Machida starts pouring on the offense and eventually scores a late stoppage.

Prediction: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Rd. 4

Here are some picks from my maaaaain man, Nick:

PRELIMINARY CARD

- Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson - Larson, TKO, Rd 1
- Pat Barry vs. Tim Hague - Barry, TKO, Rd. 2
- Kyle Bradley vs. Phillipe Nover - Nover, UD
- Andre Gusmao vs. Krzysztof Soszynski - KS, submission (kimura), Rd. 1
- Brandon Wolff vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - NC. Double Knockout, Round 2
- David Kaplan vs. George Roop - Roop, TKO, Rd. 2

Main Card:

- Frank Edgar vs. Sean Sherk - I’d love to pick Edgar here, he’s one of my faves, but common sense tells me Sherk by UD

- Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen - Miller by UD

- Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs. Drew McFedries - I don’t know enough about XFP, I just don’t think D-Mac has been right his last few fights.

- Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra - I love Matt Serra’s personality. He’s still an average welterweight and isn’t explosive enough to TKO Hughes. Hughes, by an ugly UD

- Champ Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida (for light-heavyweight title) - So, so tough. I think Machida is too smart. I see him winning a very, very close decision. Machida by SD, new champion.

Nick picking the double knockout in Yoshida/Wolff — we like to live dangerously here at Intelligently Defending, folks!

Enjoy what should be a great card!

Check out the UFC 100 Dream Card Contest to win an MMA prize package.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com