We’re a few days away from UFC 97 so here are some predictions from myself and my main-man Nick Braccia.

Check back for a Post-Mortem – as well as a renewed dedication to this blog – on Monday.

The Undercard

- Matt Wiman def. Sam Stout, decision - Stout goes to 2-5 in his last UFC for the foreseeable future.

- TJ Grant def. Ryo Chonan, decision – This is more a knock on Ryo than an endorsement for Grant – who I know nothing about, other than he’s beaten a few UFC alums.

- Mark Bocek def. David Bielkheden, decision – Man, I hope we get to see this one.  Got to go with Mark - dude is a gamer.

- David Loiseau def. Ed Herman, TKO, Rd. 2 – Welcome back, Crow.  Adios, Ed.

- Jason MacDonald def. Nate Quarry, submission, Rd. 2 – Another fight I would love to see broadcast.  The Athlete adds another win over Team Quest.

- Denis Kang def. Xavier Foupa-Pokam, TKO, Rd. 1 – Kang gets on the winning track in the UFC after stumbling against Belcher.

- Vinicius Magalhaes def. Eliot Marshall, submission, Rd. 1 – This ones interesting.  I want Marshall but my gut says Vinny’s grappling takes it.

The Main Card

Steve Cantwell vs. Luiz Cane

Great way to start the PPV - two up-and-comers who always bring the goods.

Cane has looked like a beast.  He has the hands and a great ground game to go with it.  His destruction of Sokoudjou was a thing of beauty and demonstrated that he’s a smart fighter – as well as a lethal one.

In Cantwell, we have the last WEC light-heavyweight champion who is young and very well-rounded.  He took care of business against Razak Al-Hassan and is now looking to cement himself as a player in the division with a win over Luiz.

Unfortunately for Cantwell, he won’t be getting that win.  Cane is better in all aspects of the game and will overwhelm from the start.  He will soften Cantwell up with strikes in the first and finish in the second by dropping Steve on the feet and following up with a TKO on the ground.

Prediction: Cane, TKO, Rd. 2

Cheick Kongo vs. Antoni Hardonk

I know Hardonk has won three in a row, but the UFC can’t keep spouting off how Kongo is only a few wins away from a title shot and then have him fight Antoni freaking Hardonk.  This was put together because both guys will stand and bang in what should be an entertaining brawl - nothing more.

Not that I think Kongo deserves a shot.  His last two wins were against stiffs, he lost to Herring in a God-awful fight and his win over Cro-Cop wasn’t exactly awe-inspiring.  He is improving, I’ll give him that – but any of the big wrestlers in that division would have their way with him.

Anyway, Hardonk’s stand-up is pretty good, but he’s going to get mauled.  Cheick will have a very nice outing by showing some well-rounded striking.  We’re talking kicks, punches, clinch-work – all that good stuff.  Eventually, the genetic monster drops Antoni and finishes with a TKO.

Prediction: Kongo, TKO, Rd. 2

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brian Stann

I don’t know how close they are to title contention, but if you are looking for two cool guys – you got them here.  Krzysztof came across great on TUF8 and Stann is a former Marine who always shows class – you gotta love it.

Stann hits hard and is tough, but his skills come into question once you get past that.  He needs more seasoning before he becomes a complete fighter and that’s going to be a problem against Soszynski, a certified veteran of the sport.

Look for Stann to come out like a ball of fire, but be unable to connect as Krzysztof refuses to brawl and picks his spots.  Eventually, at the will of Soszynski, it goes to the ground and the TUF8 alum will sink in a submission.

Prediction: Soszynski, submission, Rd. 2

Chuck Liddell vs. Mauricio Rua

If you say that you know what’s happening in this fight, you’re a filthy liar.  I for one am not afraid to admit that I have no clue.

In one corner, a former champ who has seen better days, but claims he still has it.  In the other, the one-time division king who - at age 27 - looks as washed-up as the 44-year-old he barely got by in his last fight.

To me, this fight comes down to which Shogun shows up.  At this point, it’s a safe bet to predict what kind of performance you are going to get from Chuck.  He isn’t totally done like some are saying, but he’s nowhere near the killer he once was.

Rua is harder to figure out.  He was an animal in Pride and has looked completely flat in the UFC.  The excuses have been endless: first time in the Octagon, not focused on training, ring-rust, knee injury… the list goes on.  Thing is, I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt because there has to be a reason for such a downfall.

Coming into this fight it appears the excuses for Shogun are done with and this will be the real indicator of where he is.  In the end, I say the true Rua shines through.  He will be patient and not chase the Iceman.  Once he gets the clinch midway through the first he will start unleashing like he did in Pride and it will be the beginning of the end.

Prediction: Rua, TKO, Rd. 1

Bonus prediction: Liddell announces retirement in Octagon afterwards… and then returns less than a year later.  Can a brotha get a Vegas line on that?

Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites

Remind me again why this is Leites and not Okami?  Whatever, I give up.

I’ll keep it short: Anderson is pissed off about looking like a chump against Cote.  He is out for blood.  There won’t be any dancing or other such nonsense like last time - just a straight-up beatdown.

And for the five of you out there who say Leites can give him problems with his BJJ, let me remind you that Thales failed to submit Pete Sell.  Yea, you may want to re-think your stance.

Prediction: Silva, TKO, Rd. 1

This is a fun little event with some real good main card fights, some juicy undercard scraps and one of the best fighters in the world in the main event.  It will hold us over nicely before an absolute onslaught of great cards in the world of MMA starting May 23rd.

And, as promised, here are Nick’s picks:

Undercard:

Vinicius Magalhaes vs. Eliot Marshall - Marshall, TKO, round 2
Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs. Denis Kang - Kang KO, round 1
Jason MacDonald vs. Nate Quarry - MacDonald, sub round 2
Ed Herman vs. David Loiseau - Louiseau UD
David Bielkheden vs. Mark Bocek - Bocek UD
Ryo Chonan vs. T.J. Grant - Chonan UD
Sam Stout vs. Matt Wiman - Wiman SD

Main Card:

Middleweight champ Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites - Silva by tons of strikes Rnd 2
Chuck Liddell vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua – Rua by KO Rnd 2
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brian Stann – Stann by U Decision
Cheick Kongo vs. Antoni Hardonk – Hardonk by Ugly Split Decision
Luis Cane vs. Steve Cantwell – I predict a war. Cane by TKO round 2

Enjoy the fights!

-Ken
http://IntelligentlyDefending.com

Good freaking Lord, that’s a lot of spam awaiting approval in the comments section.

I don’t know whats worse - that I’ve accumulated that much junk due to inactivity, or the fact I’m so out of touch that I don’t recognize half the names of the women I can supposedly see naked.

In any event, time to get back to business around here.  Let’s take baby-steps and start with some quick picks for tomorrow nights UFC Fight Night 18.

Carlos Condit def. Martin Kampmann vis decision

I would love nothing more than my main main Martin to pick up the big win, but I don’t see it.  The superior grappling of Condit controls the fight.

Ryan Bader def. Carmelo Marrero via decision

The great wrestling cancels itself out and Bader shows more stand-up prowess in picking up the decision.

Tyson Griffin def. Rafael dos Anjos via TKO rd. 2

It’s been 2.5 years since Tyson has finished a fight - he’s due.  Griffin drops dos Anjos with a big punch and finishes with strikes on the ground.

Cole Miller def. Junie Browning via submission rd. 2

Won’t bother debating whether or not Browning deserves to be on the main card because, fact is, I don’t care.  Miller takes it fairly easily with far superior BJJ.

Gleison Tibau def. Jeremy Stephens via submission rd. 2
Ricardo Almeida def. Matt Horwichvia via submission rd. 1
Brock Larson def. Jesse Sanders via TKO rd. 1
Tim Credeur def. Nick Catone via submission rd. 1 (I’m really becoming a Credeur fan)
Jorge Rivera def. Nissen Osterneck via decision
Rob Kimmons def. Joe Vedepo I have no idea
Aaron Simpsondef. Tim McKenzie via TKO rd. 2

It should be a fun little night of free fights followed by the new season of TUF which I will be watching as always.

Enjoy.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Things have been quiet over here thanks to a week at work that didn’t see me get home before 2:30am on any night - and had me actually sleep at the office one night.

Still, I wanted to get these picks up before the show - no matter how abbreviated they are.  I’m also happy to have picks from my main man - and person somewhat responsible for my terrible week at work - Nick.  This will hopefully be Nick’s first of many contributions to Intelligently Defending.

Here we go…

Ken’s Picks

MAIN CARD

• Quinton Jackson (205) vs. Keith Jardine (204)  Jackson, TKO, Rd. 2
• Shane Carwin (259.5) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (257.5) Carwin, TKO, Rd. 3
• Matt Brown (170.5) vs. Pete Sell (170) Sell, Submission, Rd. 2
• Matt Hamill (205) vs. Mark Munoz (204.5) Hamill, Decision
• Gray Maynard (155) vs. Jim Miller (154.5) Maynard, Decision

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Ryan Madigan (169) vs. Tamdan McCrory (170) McCrory, TKO, Rd. 2
• Jason Day (184.5) vs. Kendall Grove (185) Grove TKO, Rd. 2
• Tim Boetsch (205) vs. Jason Brilz (204) Boetsch, TKO, Rd. 1
• Michael Patt (204.5) vs. Brandon Vera (205) Vera,TKO, Rd. 1
  
• Shane Nelson (155) vs. Aaron Riley (155) Riley, Decision

Nick’s Picks

MAIN CARD

• Quinton Jackson (205) vs. Keith Jardine (204)  Jardine, Split Decision
• Shane Carwin (259.5) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (257.5) Gonzaga, Submission, Rd. 2
• Matt Brown (170.5) vs. Pete Sell (170) Matt Brown, Split Decision
• Matt Hamill (205) vs. Mark Munoz (204.5) Matt Hamill, TKO, Rd. 3
• Gray Maynard (155) vs. Jim Miller (154.5) Maynard, Unanimous Decision

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Ryan Madigan (169) vs. Tamdan McCrory (170) McCrory, Submission, Rd. 2
• Jason Day (184.5) vs. Kendall Grove (185) Grove TKO, Rd. 2
• Tim Boetsch (205) vs. Jason Brilz (204) Boetsch, TKO, Rd. 1
  
• Michael Patt (204.5) vs. Brandon Vera (205) Vera, Unanimous Decision
  
• Shane Nelson (155) vs. Aaron Riley (155) Riley Submission, Rd. 1

I’ve criticized this show in the past, but I’ll be watching like a good fanboy should.  Maybe it will surprise me.

Come back for the Post-Mortem Monday-ish.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

UFC 95 is tomorrow night so let’s try to figure out the card. Post-Mortem to follow Monday-ish.

The Undercard:

Paul Kelly vs. Troy Mandaloniz:

Prediction: Kelly, TKO, Rd. 2 – Kelly is going to eat him on the ground.

Per Eklund vs. Evan Dunham:

Prediction: Eklund, Decision – why not?

Mike Ciesnolevicz vs. Neil Grove:

Prediction: Grove, TKO, Rd. 2 – I have no idea and I don’t want to type the other guy’s last name again.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Sefan Struve:

Prediction: Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 1 – Have I ever mentioned how I predicted Dos Santos knocking out Werdum?

Terry Etim vs. Brian Cobb:

Prediction: Etim, Submission, Rd. 2 – I’m using the “British fighter set-up for a win on his home turf” logic on this one.

Good Lord, this has to be one of the worst prelims in a long time. On any undercard there is usually one or two – maybe three if it’s an England show – guys that I know nothing about, but there are about six on this one. Oh well, it is the undercard after all and with all the Brits on it I’m sure we’ll see some spirited battles.

The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

Some people have been complaining about Kos fighting an unknown, but take a look at his last 6 fights: Sanchez, GSP, Hazelett, Lytle, Alves and Yoshida. Good grief, the guys deserves a lay-up fight.

Of course, with an unknown fighter, such as Paulo Thiago, you never know if you’re getting a lay-up. Thiago apparently has submissions and is currently undefeated. Still, Kos has got this. Josh has really been fighting well, even in his loss to Alves he put up a fight and showed some real toughness.

I feel a stand-up battle in this one. People say Josh may take it to the ground because he doesn’t want to trade with an unknown fighter, but I say he keeps it standing because he doesn’t want to test the submission skills of an unknown fighter. Look for Josh to control things on the feet and eventually catch Paulo with a big punch. From there, he goes to the ground and finishes with ground and pound.

Prediction: Koscheck, TKO, Rd. 2

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

This is a rough return to the UFC for Chael Sonnen. Maia has been unstoppable thus far in his, and Sonnen has been tapped by far less caliber of grapplers. No matter, feeding Sonnen to the lions isn’t a big deal because I personally don’t think he’s that good to begin with. Yeah, he beat Paulo Filho, but that wasn’t Paulo Filho he was fighting – it was a nutjob.

The only time Maia has looked human thus far was against Ed Herman of all people. Herman won the first round if memory serves correct and Maia was gassed by the second. Of course, he still found a way to tap Short Fuse, but it wasn’t easy.

This will be Sonnen’s only chance – he needs to use his superior wrestling to keep it standing and wear Demian out. It won’t happen. Maia will find a way to bring Chael down, even if it means pulling the former WEC champion on top of him. From there its academic as one of the best BJJ practitioners in the world seals the victory with a submission.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

Wilson Gouveia vs. Nate Marquardt

Super-amped for this one.

Nate is a beast and looked great in his last fight against Martin Kampmann. He is one of the best middleweights in the division and if he can string together a few more wins he will have his name right near the top of title contention.

Wilson Gouveia is a fighter I’ve always liked. He hits like a mac-truck, has awesome leg-kicks and is a Black-Belt in BJJ. That’s my kind of guy. I also loved his move to the 185lb division because it is a much better fit for him. The problem has always been his gas tank, in fact, if it weren’t for his cardio problems he probably would have beat Keith Jardine in his UFC debut and his career would have taken an entirely different path.

In any case, Wilson’s tank won’t be an issue Saturday. He will be ready to roll and I see him scoring the mild upset. Marquardt will look for the takedown early, but not get it. Wilson will chop away at his legs and eventually slow Marquardt’s relentless onslaught. From there Nate will be a sitting duck for one of the bricks Gouveia carries around with him. Wilson catches him and The Great is out cold.

Prediction: Gouveia, TKO, Rd. 2

Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham

I won’t believe that this fight is the co-main event until I see it Saturday night. I know Hardy is a local guy, but come on – he just won a split decision over Akihiro freaking Gono in his first UFC fight. Hardy’s record also includes loses to Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Forrest Petz and 2 to David Baron. As for Markham, he had that amazing head-kick against Brodie Farber, but if I remember correctly he was losing the fight to that point.

Well, in any case, this is by far the fight I’m least looking forward to on the main card. Should be a nice brawl, I guess.

Look for Hardy to be the more technical of the two and pick Markham apart and eventually drop him with strikes in the second.

Did you smell my conviction in that pick?

Prediction: Hardy, TKO, Rd. 2

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

This really isn’t main event quality, but I’m pumped for this fight.

I love Diego’s drop to lightweight and am very interested to see how he does. If the weigh-in is any indication, he should be good to go because he was ripped to shreds.

Joe is, and will continue to be, a solid lightweight - but I think he loses another in this one. He just hasn’t progressed enough since The Ultimate Fighter.

Sanchez will come out like a mad-man, as always, and apply the early pressure. He gets the better of the stand-up with his reach advantage and eventually scores the takedown. He won’t finish it in the first, but Stevenson will be hurt. When the second starts, Nightmare gets the early takedown and eventually pounds out the win.

Prediction: Sanchez, TKO, Rd. 2

There you go. Not an amazing card, but if you look at it as a Fight Night since it’s free (in the States) you can appreciate it for a nice, inexpensive Saturday night.

Enjoy all, and check back here for a Post-Mortem

-Ken

http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Let’s do it right this time and get the picks in before the event. Post-Mortem to follow Monday-ish.

Undercard:

Steve Bruno vs. Matt Riddle: Riddle, decision. Got to love the Riddle – I’m banking on some nice progression to his game.

Nick Catone vs. Derek Downey: Catone, decision. No freaking clue.

Gleison Tibau vs. Rich Clementi: Clementi, decision. Here we go, Rich.

Matt Grice vs. Matt Veach: Veach, Submission, Rd. 2. Not positive, but Veach may be the first fighter from Matt Hughes’s HIT Squad in the UFC since Tommy Spear.

Dan Miller vs. Jake Rosholt: Rosholt, TKO, Rd. 2. Rosholt’s a beast – keep an eye on him.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Rob Emerson: Pellegrino, Sub, Rd. 1. Emerson is perhaps my least favorite fighter in MMA – and it doesn’t help his cause that he’s fighting a guy I like. Let’s go Kurt.

Main Card:

Luigi Fioravanti vs. Anthony Johnson

One of the most exciting welterweights in UFC takes on one of the blandest. I’ll leave it up to you to decide which is which.

Unlike most of his fights, Luigi will be the smaller man here. He doesn’t want to stand with Johnson, but he’ll be forced to since “Rumble” has both a wrestling and reach advantage. It’s going to be another addition to the Johnson highlight reel as he catches Luigi late in the second with strikes to drop him for the win.

Prediction: Johnson, TKO, Rd. 2

Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer

I tell you, Danzig has not been handed anything since winning TUF6 - Mark Bocek, Clay Guida and now Neer. That’s a tough line to tow. It’s understandable though, Mac was a seasoned veteran after winning the show and the UFC typically throws those guys right into the mix. Joe Stevenson, for example, had Neer, Yves Edwards and Dokonjonosuke Mishima in his first 3 fights off the show.

Anyway, this should be good. Both are well-rounded with a ton of fights and are desperate for a win. Danzig gets it after a stand-up fight by securing the takedown and working in a submission in the 2^nd.

Prediction: Danzig, Sud, Rd.2

Cain Velasquez vs. Denis Stojnic

Oh baby! My main man Cain Velasquez is back in action.

The guy is a monster and the hype is well-deserved. The UFC seems to be perfectly happy with bringing him along slowly. Shane Carwin came in at the same time as Velasquez and is already fighting Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96 which has raised the ire of some – but not me. Carwin, another absolute beast, is much older and more experienced than Cain so let him get the big spots now and let Velasquez build his name on Fight Nights.

As for this fight, there is no reason to believe that it won’t be a severe mauling of Mr. Stojnic. Cain has said that he may want to test his stand-up against the kickboxer, but smarter heads will prevail. Stojnic goes on his back early in this one and get pounded out in epic fashion.

Prediction: Velasquez, TKO, Rd. 1

Joe Lauzon vs. Jeremy Stephens

Are you telling me I get my main man Cain Velasquez, followed by my main man Joe Lauzon in back-to-back fights? This is going to be a nice little Saturday.

I’m not going to lie: if this were Lauzon vs. Hermes Franca I would have been scared. Joe isn’t ready for a veteran with the grappling prowess of Franca. But, Lauzon vs. Stephens? Fuhgeddaboutit. J-Lau has got this one.

I’ve said before that I think Jeremy is a bit overrated and my opinion hasn’t changed. He may have a power advantage on the feet, but from a technical standpoint I don’t see that as much of a mismatch. On the ground, Joe has a decided advantage and will control the fight once it reaches the canvas.

Look for a stand-up exchange in the beginning with Joe unsuccessfully working for a takedown. In the second, he finally gets to the ground and goes to work. He rains down punches and eventually passes guard where he gets a submission.

Prediction: Lauzon, Sub, Rd. 2

Injuries to Amir Sadollah and Hermes Franca have really taken this card down a few pegs in terms of star power. As I said though, two of my guys are on it so I’m looking forward to it.

Enjoy!

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

I wanted to get these in real quick – Post-Mortem to follow on Monday.

WAMMA Heavyweight Title Fedor Emelianenko vs. Andrei Arlovski

I got love for Andrei and I really hope that the true Pitbull shows up Saturday night. Unfortunately, even Arlovski at his best can’t beat Fedor.

Look for Fedor to do just fine on the feet before taking it to the ground and securing a submission.

Prediction: Fedor, Submission, Rd. 1

Josh Barnett vs. Gilbert Yvel

Yvel has finally been cleared to fight, so this thing is on.

Barnett will cruise to an easy win by taking it to the ground and working a submission. In the process, he will avoid Gilbert’s eye gouges and attempted shots to the nuts.

The win will set-up a long-awaited showdown with Fedor at the next Affliction event.

Prediction: Barnett, Submission, Rd. 2

Vitor Belfort vs. Matt Lindland

This is a tough one to figure. On the one hand, Lindland is getting old and looked like garbage in his first Affliction fight against Nascimento. On the other hand, who the hell knows which Vitor is going to show up?

In the end, I’ll say Matt’s wrestling is enough for him to take this to the ground and control the action to a decisions win.

It should be interesting to say the least.

Prediction: Lindland, Decision

Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Rameau Thierry Sudoku err.. Sokoudjou

If you don’t know who I’m picking here, you aren’t a personal friend of mine – in which case, thanks for reading.

The bubble has burst for Sokoudjou. Just wait for a few minutes while he blows his load looking for the knockout and then pick apart the pieces when he gasses. The kid will eventually be a beast – but, not now.

My maaaaaaain man, Babalu, employs this method by keeping his distance in the first and then takes an already gassed Sokoudjou down and submits him soon after.

Prediction: Babalu, Submission, Rd. 2

Jay Hieron vs. Jason High

Hieron is seasoned and comes from a great camp. Plus, he’s from Long Island

Jay uses his wrestling to get the win here.

Prediction: Hieron, Decision

Paul Buentello vs. Kiril Sidelnikov

Honestly, I know nothing about Sidelnikov other than he’s young and trains at Fedor’s camp – which is the only reason he is on the show.

Buentello is a vet who will catch the young-gun with a KO punch late in the 2^nd.

Prediction: Buentello, KO, Rd.2

I am super-upset that Chris Horodecki wasn’t cleared to fight because I was looking forward to my man Dan Lauzon showing him what’s up. Oh well, this should be a great card nonetheless.

-Ken
http:www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Only a few days away from the UFC 92 blockbuster card so here are my picks. Be sure to check out my UFC 92 Post-Mortem after the show to see how much of a genius and/or dumbass I am.

Undercard

• Dan Evensen vs. Pat Barry: Barry, TKO, Rd. 2
• Ryo Chonan vs. Brad Blackburn: Chonan, Decision
• Matt Hamill vs. Reese Andy: Hamill, TKO, Rd. 2 – probably the last fight I can hold out hope for Hamill until I give up.
• Antoni Hardonk vs. Mike Wessel: Hardonk, TKO, Rd. 1
• Yushin Okami vs. Dean Lister: Okami, Decision

Cheick Kongo vs. Mostapha Al Turk

Yea, I would much rather see this fight than Okami/Lister… And yes, I realize it’s hard to sound sarcastic in print, but I assure you I’m being just that.

In any event, the only fight in the UFC that Kongo got taken to the ground on a regular basis was against Carmelo Marrero who is an excellent wrestler. I know very little about Al Turk, but from what I can see his wrestling credentials aren’t anything to speak of and I can’t imagine standing with Kongo ending well for him.

Look for Kongo to unleash some gnarly strikes and drop Mostapha in the first and follow it up with strikes on the ground.

Prediction: Kongo, TKO, Rd. 1

C.B. Dollaway vs. Mike Massenzio

This is hard to admit in public, but here it goes: I, Ken Kobel, am a fan of C.B. Dollaway.

Now that that’s off my shoulders let me tell you why. He got a lot of flack on the show for being cocky, but I found it to be more confidence than anything else. I think he has all the tools to be great – his wrestling is excellent, his submission game is good and his striking is always improving. At age 25, he has yet to reach anywhere near his full potential.

And, for the record, him trying to pretend he didn’t tap at the TUF7 finale was disgraceful, but I’m letting it slide – deal.

With all this said, after doing some research on Mike Massenzio this may be a tough fight for Dollaway. Mike is another excellent wrestler whose only loss in junior college was ironically to C.B. He has a bunch of submission wins on his resume and, as we saw against Amir, Dollaway is susceptible to the armbar.

Still, I think Dollaway takes the fight in a surprisingly stand-up affair by landing the cleaner strikes. It will go to the ground a few times by Dollaway’s choosing where he will avoid submissions, but fail to do much damage.

Prediction: Dollaway, Decision

Wanderlei Silva vs. Quinton Jackson

I’ve been flip-flopping on this fight and still don’t have a strong feeling – which I suppose I should be happy about.

Wanderlei is perhaps the most violent man in the history of the sport – his nickname is the Axe Murderer for Christ’s sake. He has already destroyed Rampage twice. All signs would point to him winning and solidifying his place in the title mix.

For some reason though, I feel like Jackson is going to surprise a lot of people here and not show any signs of being affected by the events of the last few months.

Decisions decisions…

Ok, in the end  Wandy beats him again. Look for the leather to fly for the first couple of minutes before Jackson gets a takedown to close the round. In the second, they will go toe-to-toe again, but this time Silva hurts him with a punch and grabs the clinch to finish him off with knees.

Prediction: Silva, TKO, Rd. 2

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir

I’ve written at length about how Mir has no chance – and I will not be backing off this claim. If you want a good synopsis of why this is going to be lop-sided you can check out my Mythbusters from last week.

Nog will open up with strikes right off the bat and continue to for the entire first round. Mir will helplessly try to take this to the ground and eventually attempt pulling guard to no avail. His will to win will be broken by the second round where Nog will continue to land strikes, eventually dropping Frank and finding a submission soon after.

Prediction: Nogueira, Submission, Rd. 2

Forrest Griffin vs. Rashad Evans

Here is another one where I’ve gone back and forth for the last month in my head.

This is such a close fight, but a great one as well and anyone who says differently is a jackass. And yes, I got into MMA by watching TUF 1 & 2, so I am completely biased. Still though, one of these guys has consecutively beat Shogun and Rampage and the other damn near ended Liddell’s career. They fully deserve to be in this spot.

Here is how I see it going down: Forrest starts winning the stand-up which causes Rashad to try and take him to the ground. While he may score a takedown or two, they wont be with any kind of consistency (he couldn’t takedown Bisping regularly and Forrest is much bigger than the Count). Evans is going to use a lot of energy by doing this and will be gassed by the 4^th while Forrest is still fresh. From here Forrest ends up taking Rashad down and working in a submission to retain his title.

Prediction: Forrest, Submission, Rd. 4

It should be an excellent night of fights – enjoy everyone!

Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Time is short, but I want to get these in so let’s rock…

Junie Browning vs. Dave Kaplan

I actually started to feel bad for Junie towards the end. Dude isn’t right in the head.

Who knows, or cares, about this fight – but, I’ll say Junie stops him early in the first with strikes after catching him on the feet.

Predcition: Browning, TKO, Rd. 1

Kevin Burns vs. Anthony Johnson

See, THIS is a deserved rematch – unlike some other fights we’re getting in the near future – Faber/Pulver 2 I’m looking your way.

Anyway, I think Johnson takes it early this time around with some of that explosive striking of his.

Prediction: Johnson, TKO, Rd. 1

Wilson Gouveia vs. Jason MacDonald

Two of my main men in the middleweight division. I won’t know who I’m rooting for until it starts and my emotion takes over.

Wilson hits like a brick and has some sweet jits. I think he rattles MacDonald with a punch and follows up on the ground with a sub.

Prediction: Gouveia, Sub, Rd. 2

TUF8 LHW Final: Vinny Magalhaes vs. Ryan Bader

These two guys have potential but are very raw, don’t look for them to be contending anytime soon, but don’t be surprised to see them near the top later.

Halfway through the first Bader forgets who he’s dealing with and makes the terrible decision to take Vinny down and get subbed less than a minute later.

Prediction: Magalhaes, Sub, Rd. 1

TUF8 LW Final: Efrain Escudero vs. Phillipe Nover

Here it is - my upset special…

I’m not saying the hype is undeserved on Nover – the kids a stud – but it’s a bit much when you consider how little of a chance people are giving Efrain in this fight.

• FACT: Efrain is the far superior wrestler
• FACT: Efrain has ended 9 of his 10 career fights by submission – 11 of 12 if you count the show
• FACT: Efrain fought tougher opponents on the show (Nelson, Browning vs. Kaplan, Roop)
• FACT: Efrain has fought tougher competition his whole career – don’t have time to get the exact stats, but trust me.

Don’t come crying to me when Escudero takes this via a hard fought decision where he controls the fight from the top.

Prediction: Escudero, Decision

And for the record, both these guys are going to be great.

Enjoy the fights and check back Monday for my TUF8 Post-Mortem (thanks Scoozna!) and Self-Grading.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

One of the most anticipated events in MMA history is just a few days away – so let’s get some predictions…

Heavyweight Championship: Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar

Find me a person who knows exactly what is going to happen in this fight and I’ll find you a person who is full of shit.

There are too many x-factors to count: Randy’s age, Brock’s size, Randy’s ring rust, Brock’s chin, Randy’s gas tank, Brock’s gas tank – the list is never ending.

I have gone back and forth on this about 8 billion times and will probably flip-flop another 20 times between Saturday. At the moment though, I feel like Randy is going to pull out another shocker and finish Lesnar early. He is going to keep moving and avoid the takedown which will frustrate the challenger. Once Couture gets to work his dirty boxing he will overwhelm the behemoth and finish the fight.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 2

Kenny Florian vs. Joe Stevenson

This is another one that can go either way and I wouldn’t be surprised.

Kenny is unproven against good wrestlers which is an obstacle he must get past to win this fight. I think he has it in him based on his fight with Roger Huerta where he was able to both avoid and dish out takedowns. Obviously, Joe is a better wrestler than Huerta, but I think Kenny will be OK.

Look for Florian to win the stand-up and eventually score a takedown of his own and secure a stoppage.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 3

Demian Maia vs. Nate Quarry

The Demian Maia bandwagon has been steadily growing in recent months due to his outstanding submission skills. My problem with this is, as with most BJJ specialists, Maia’s takedowns are unproven. On top of this, we have yet to see Demian get hit hard.

Jason MacDonald inexplicably took his fight with Maia to the ground and paid the price. Nate Quarry won’t make the same mistake and he will tag the Brazilian with strikes. I haven’t seen a betting line on this fight yet, but I’m guessing you can get a nice value on Quarry - so I’m making this my upset special.

Prediction: Quarry, TKO, Rd. 2

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Josh Hendricks

I honestly don’t know much about Hendricks and a glance at his record shows that he has lost to the only names I recognize. Not a good sign.

Look for Gabriel to take this one easy.

Prediction: Gonzaga, Submission, Rd. 1

Dustin Hazelett vs. Tamdan McCrory

I like Amir Sadollah and wish him a speedy recovery, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t get excited when this bout got promoted to the main card. Both of these guys have a world of potential and have been very exciting to this point.

McCrory isn’t going to enjoy a lengthy reach advantage here like he does against most welterweights. Look for Hazelett to showcase his always improving stand-up to set-up a takedown and finish it from there with a submission.

Prediction: Hazelett, Submission, Rd. 1

For the record, the people saying that this card is “one big fight card and a bunch of lame match-ups” aren’t happy unless they’re complaining. Randy/Brock may be premature -but is a huge fight for many reasons and has a great story, Kenny/Joe is number #1 contender caliber, Maia/Quarry is a solid test for Demian and a chance for Nate to get a big win, Gonzaga/Hendricks will give us a chance to see if Gabe is really back and Hazelett/McCrory is a showdown between two future stars.

I can’t wait for Saturday!

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Featherweight Champion Urijah Faber vs. Mike Brown

Mike Brown is very well-rounded and riding a seven fight win streak. Unfortunately for him, Urijah is fighting at a different level right now, especially after displaying great stand-up to go along with his grappling in his fight with Jens Pulver.

Brown will bring it – but the champ retains here.

Prediction – Faber, Decision.

Middleweight Champion Paulo Filho vs. Chael Sonnen

The first fight ended in controversy, but this one will be a decisive win for the champ.

Sonnen is tough, but fought way above his head in the first meeting. It will be tough for him to replicate that performance and not get caught in a submission which he has a penchant for doing.

If Filho’s head is on right for this one, he will take it.

Prediction – Filho, Submission, Rd. 2

Jens Pulver vs. Leonard Garcia

I can’t wait for this one and, to be honest, I have no clue how it’s going to go.

Pulver got whooped, but fought his heart out against Faber. I think he still has a few wins left at 145.

As for Garcia, he has great submission and improving stand-up. It looks like 145 is a great fit for him.

Its close, but I’ll go with the wily vet to stop the takedowns and land the big punch.

Prediction – Pulver, TKO, Rd 2

Jake Rosholt vs. Nissen Osterneck

I know very little about either of these two as mixed-martial artists, but Jake Rosholt is a two-time NCAA Champion wrestler so I’ll go with him.

Prediction – Rosholt, Decision

As Always, it should be a sweet night of action from these guys.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com