UFC 118 is Saturday.  Let’s make some picks.

I tried to spruce these up a bit, let me know what you think…

1) Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

How we got here:

After an impressive UFC welterweight debut against Rory Markham, Nate Diaz was ready for a bigger test and Marcus Davis is the man to give it to him.

Davis fell on hard times a few fights back, but recently returned to the win column with a victory over Jonathan ‘Glass Joe’ Goulet.  It’s now time for Marcus to try his luck against a big name opponent.

I also feel like there was some name calling that spawned this match-up, but I may just be imagining that given a Diaz is involved.

What’s at stake:

A win for Nate solidifies him as a legitimate player at 170 and may end his days at lightweight.

For Marcus, a victory puts him back in the middle of the pack where he was for the majority of 2006-2008.

The breakdown:

Despite what some are saying, I do not believe Nate holds an advantage wherever this fight goes.  Marcus is by far the superior boxer and should get the better of the stand-up, reach disadvantage notwithstanding.

On the ground, this is no contest.  While Davis has shown himself to be slippery on the canvas, he is not in Nate’s league.  Diaz’s main objective should be to shoot, trip or throw the Hand Grenade to the ground however he can.

I say:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

2) Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

How we got here:

Demian was originally scheduled to face Alan Belcher in the next Fight Night Main event, but injury sidelined the Mississippian.

Joe Silva did some shuffling and Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares is the Fight Night feature bout and Miranda was matched up with Maia.

What’s at stake:

Maia needs this win after getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva in the infamous UFC 112 main event.  He absolutely cannot afford to lose this fight to a relatively no-name fighter or he risks falling off the map.

Miranda on the other hand can go into this fight with nothing to lose.  Despite a UFC win and an impressive 10-1 record, very few fans know who Mario is.  He now has a chance to pull off the upset and make his presence known.

The breakdown:

Miranda has the striking edge, but Maia has shown improving hands as of late.  Enough to keep him out of trouble.

On the ground, Maia vs. Miranda is roughly equivalent to me vs. a 4-year-old.

I say:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

3) Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

How we got here:

This time last year Kenny Florian was getting trounced by B.J. Penn in his second lightweight title fight.  Since then, he has dominated Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi.  He is now one win away from his third shot at gold.

After his stint on TUF5, Gary Maynard has gone 7-0-1 in the UFC.  Credentials like that usually give a fighter a title shot, but lackluster decision wins have caused the Bully to take the long road to the championship and a fight against Kenny.

What’s at stake:

The next UFC lightweight title shot.

The breakdown:

Can Ken-Flo beat an elite wrestler?  The age-old question will get answered Saturday.

If Gray is smart he takes this to the ground quick and often.  Kenny’s stand-up has been on fire lately and Maynard would be smart to avoid it.

On the ground, Gray has shown the ability to stay out of subs with his smothering style.  It may not be the most exciting, but he is undefeated.  He will need to employ this to get the win – no matter how ugly it may look.

For Kenny, expect him to show the boxing which has looked so good in recent fights.  I don’t think he will be busting out those muay-thai kicks and risk getting taken to the ground.

If Maynard leaves even the slightest of openings for Kenny to score a takedown you can expect the Flo to go for it.  He has not been afraid to test his wrestling skills in the past.  Sometimes he’s successful – Guida.  And sometimes he’s not – Penn.  One thing is for sure, if Gray finds himself on the bottom at any point of this fight he is in deep, deep trouble.

I say:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Randy Couture vs. James Toney

How we got here:

A few months back, James Toney chased Dana White across the country until he got a contract.

Randy got here because he is a big name and probably one of the worst match-ups for the boxing champion.

What’s at stake:

Given how the UFC has promoted this as MMA vs. boxing, the legitimacy of the sport is somewhat on-the-line.  If the Natural gets knocked out, it fuels the fire of boxing fans who in the last 3 or 4 years have had very little to defend their dying sport with against MMA.

No pressure Randy…

The breakdown:

It doesn’t get much more academic than this:

If this fight stays standing longer than 3 minutes: Randy gets the lights turned off.
If this fight stays on the ground for longer than 3 minutes: Toney gets pounded out.

Simple.

I say:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

5) Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

How we got here:

Back at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, Frankie Edgar did the unthinkable when he outlasted then champion B.J. Penn to capture the UFC lightweight title.

The result was controversial so we are now running this thing back in Boston.

What’s at stake:

For B.J.: The opportunity to reclaim his place as the lightweight king.

For Frankie: The opportunity to show the world Abu Dhabi was no fluke.

For both: The UFC lightweight title.

The breakdown:

This is pretty similar to the first fight in the sense that it would appear B.J. is better in all aspects.

So how did Frankie win the first fight?

He won by sticking and moving.  He went inside and was out before B.J. could get a word in edgewise.  He mixed in some well-timed takedowns to score points and was the more aggressive fighter.  Basically, he made it appear like he was the winner and fought the perfect fight.

It will be tough to do that again.

I say:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I will be watching this one in Baltimore with 14 of my peeps after our fantasy football draft.  Big fight atmosphere baby!

Enjoy the fights all.

Stay lucky,
Ken

It’s Monday, so let’s take a look at the mailbag:

1) Flowjobs wrote:

This has nothing to do with the boxing match but I just saw this article on ESPN and thought you’d have some sort of comment on it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/extra/mma/news/story?id=4119724

“I have no idea if I can do it,” Canseco said Thursday night. “It’s a tough sport.” The match is on May 26th…dude better figure it out real quick.

In a way, I admire Jose Canseco.  There is something I respect about a guy who will do anything to make money so long as it’s not an honest living.  Just look at his track record: he juiced in order to dominate the big leagues, sold out his peers in ‘tell all’ books, went on the ‘Surreal Life’ and is now trying his hand at MMA.

That ESPN article glances over Jose’s fight with former child star, and current nutjob, Danny Bodaduce.  I have no clue what the rules were, but, from what I understand, Bodaduce smoked a cigarette on the way to the ring and then fought Canseco to a draw.

Now, rumor is that Canseco is going to Japan to fight Hong Man Choi – which boggles my mind.  If you don’t know who Hong Man Choi is take a look at the picture of him standing next to Fedor:

This guy is straight up freak of nature standing 7 foot 2 inches and weighing over 300 pounds.  He reminds me of the Korean version of Happy Gilmore’s boss that got shot with a nail gun.

Hong Man has an MMA record of 1-2 because he packs no ground game whatsoever, but his background is in kickboxing where he carries very impressive credentials.   If this fight does go down I will be shocked because Canseco will get demolished as soon as Choi gets his hand on him.   Jose has to know this and is going to back-out — unfortunately.

There has to be a Japanese pro-wrestler or some other sideshow Canseco can fight instead of a legit competitor.

2) Ryan writes in regarding the Demian Maia/Nate Marquardt showdown at UFC 102:

Ken,

Normally I would agree w/ your pick of marquardt. But, since I have an affinity for BJJ much like Ace Venture does for animals, I am going to pick Demian. Reasons (other than the fact the maia is one of my fav fighters):

1. His stand-up is better than people think. He does have a background in karate and he trains with chute box. Meaning, if he hang with chute box fighters while training, he has a chance to hang in there with nate.

2. Maia also has a pretty extensive background in judo (black belt I think). And if he cant take you down he will just pull guard.

3.He may not submit marquardt but he will most likely get the dominant positions (side, back, mount). I believe his BJJ is good enough for him to do that for 3 rounds.

Cons:
- He may underestimate marquart’s ground game and not train on the mat.
-Greg Jackson is a master planner.

All valid points, Ryan – I think we can both agree that this is going to be a great bout.  Plus, as I said, I will probably change my mind on this fight roughly ten million times before it happens.

Maia’s stand-up is a big question mark in this one.  You seem to think he will do just fine and, if he does, he will probably get the win.  We haven’t seen much of what he can do on the feet yet, but as you said, if he is hanging in the gym with the Chute Box guys then there is a good chance he knows what he’s doing.  His motto of “I want to show that you can win without hurting your opponent” kind of scares me though.

I’d say Nate is the biggest test Maia has faced and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to adversity should Marquardt get the upper-hand.  If Maia wins convincingly, it will be hard to argue against him being the number one contender to the middleweight title.

Also, nice tidbit on the Jude black belt – I was not aware of that.

3) Brett had this to say about the Pacquiao vs. Hatton showdown:

I think boxing has been losing a lot of its popularity to MMA because of a few reasons. First, the heavyweight division has been weak (in terms of quality) for quite some time now, and even weaker when it comes to compelling characters. Secondly, I don’t think they’ve been as wise marketing as MMA has.

However, I think this fight might very well re-intrigue the nation with boxing. First off, it features two of the most compelling competitors in the sport right now, and it’s been a thrill for me to watch the lead up to this fight on HBO’s 24/7 sports. Seeing Manny from a behind the scenes perspective makes me that much more confident in his abilities.

This past week was a great episode. I’m glad they used the song “The Goin’s Great” by Sammy Davis, Jr. to start the episode….such a great mood setter - makes me think of Las Vegas, which of course makes me think boxing. Check out the clip at : http://displacedbrett.wordpress.com/2009/04/26/pacquiaohatton-madness/

Thanks for the comment, Brett.

I basically agree with everything you said about why boxing is on the skids.  I also think you were right about Saturday’s fight having the potential to give it some life, however, I don’t think that happened due to how fast it ended.  Of course, the fashion in which the PacMan won was so impressive that it perfectly sets up Pacquiao vs. Mayweather Jr. – so maybe that will be the fight to give boxing the energy it needs

Truthfully though, after watching Saturday’s event, I don’t see boxing coming to life anytime soon.  Obviously, I am an MMA fan and not a boxing fan, so my views may be biased, but here were the major issues I had with the event and state of boxing in general:

1) The undercard

This was my biggest beef.

When you pluck down $45 for a UFC event you are guaranteed at least five fights – one main event, one heavily promoted co-main event and three other fights between contenders that have ramifications on their respective weight classes.  Then, if there is extra time you get bonus fights from the prelims.

On Saturday, I also got five fights, the main event, an invisible co-main event and three showcase fights for up-and-comers.   In these showcase fights the results were a foregone conclusion.  I don’t know much about boxing, but I know that the opponents for the hired-guns had absolutely no chance in hell of winning their fights.  I kid you not when I say that this was the near verbatim announcing for the first three fights of the card:

Announcer A: Man, you would never tell that (insert up-and-comer’s name) has only been fighting pro for two years. He looks like a seasoned pro.

Announcer B: You are correct. (Insert chump who has been thrown to the lions name) is doing all he can to compete, but he is just overmatched.

There were maybe 200 people in the stands for the first two televised fights. It looked pathetic.  With such a huge talent pool of boxers out there couldn’t they get competitive bouts to fill the main card?

When you buy a UFC you get a complete card and if the main event fizzles there is a good chance the other fights will save it.  When you buy a boxing PPV, you are buying the main event only - and if it sucks you’re screwed out of $50 – like I was Saturday night.

2) The production values

Before the main event we had the singing of three national anthems.  On top of this, there was all kinds of other hoopla and about fifty trillion people standing in the ring for reasons unknown to me.

With everything going on I was expecting some killer fighter entrances to set the ‘big fight atmosphere.’  There was none of it though.  Hatton and Pacquiao came out just like the fighters on the UFC prelims come out.  In fact, the UFC prelim fighters probably have better entrances because at least you can hear their music being played.

I’m not saying we need a stage, fireworks, and dancers like Pride had – but, can’t we get some cool lights and pump up the music.   It sounds trite, but it does wonders for setting the stage for what’s on the line.

3) Too many belts.

This is an obvious one.

After Manny won, I counted five different belts in his possession.   FIVE BELTS!?!?!?!  I know some are in different weight-classes, but that’s still absurd.   This is the problem when there is no central party running the show – you get all these different organizations making their own belts to the point of none of them meaning anything.

In North American MMA, the UFC champion is recognized as the true champion (with the current exception of heavyweight).  In boxing, everyone and their grandmother has a title belt – it looks so bush league.

Those were the major problems I noticed.  In boxing’s defense, the list of celebrity’s on-hand killed the UFC – I’ll give them that.

I can appreciate a great boxing match, but they are few and far between these days.   I won’t be ordering another event until PacMan (hopefully) destroys Pretty Boy Floyd.

Again, I know I’m an MMA fan whose views are completely skewed – so no need to point that out, anyone.

Thanks for the comments everyone - keep them coming.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

There’s a lot going on in the world of MMA, so let’s take a quick look at some of the bigger stories.

Props to MMAjunkie and MMAmania where these stories are being reported.

1) Voting is underway for “UFC’s Ultimate 100: Greatest Fights”

Spike TV will air the 100 greatest UFC fights based on fan voting the Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday leading up to the historic UFC 100 PPV.

This idea is straight-up money.  Just awesome.

I went to the voting site and it looks like Spike has narrowed the field down to 177 and you can go through the entire list and rank the fights on a scale of 1-10.  This system is going to highly favor the more recent fights since I can’t imagine many people making it through the entire 18 page list.

Anyway, Griffin vs. Bonnar from the TUF1 Finale is a mortal lock for first place – and given how good it was, along with its historical significance, you would be hard-pressed to argue.

Hughes/Trigg 2 and one of the Chuck/Randy fights will definitely be in the top 10.  After that, I’m really curious to see how this list unfolds.

2) Okami injured – Sonnen to replace him against Dan Miller at UFC 98

Damn, my man Yushin Okami is forced to withdraw from a fight again.  He is going to get lost even further in the middleweight shuffle now.

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen does nothing for me on the excitement meter.  It could be a decent fight, but I won’t be holding my breath in anticipation.  I suppose it gets to stay on the main card - which is fair.  However, it baffles me that the newly signed Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam bout gets main card status instead of Phillipe Nover’s fight.

UFC 98 has been the biggest plague for injuries since UFC 85.  Mir, Rampage, Koscheck, Okami and Irvin have all pulled off the card since it was announced.  I may be forgetting a few too.

3) Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt set for UFC 102

Dear MMA gods,

I asked for this awhile back and its nice to know you were listening.  Thank you.

Signed,
Ken

Hell yes!  I wanted this fight as soon as UFC 95 was over and it has been delivered.  And really, it makes perfect sense since whoever wins could now justify getting a title shot because, as it stands now, I think both their recent resumes are just a shade under deserving of a chance at the gold.

This is going to be a great fight and right now I’m leaning towards Marquardt stopping the Maia freight train.  Demian had trouble submitting Jason MacDonald and I believe Nate’s grappling is a touch above The Athlete’s.  On top of this, Nate is the most well-rounded fighter to face Maia to date and it’s going to be tough for the BJJ master to get this to the ground.

As always, I reserve the right to flip-flop approximately 100 times before this fight happens.

4) Anderson Silva to face Forrest Griffin at UFC 101

Dear MMA gods,

Wow, I didn’t even ask for this one – you just decided to surprise me.

Thanks!
Ken

Oh baby, baby, baby!

I seriously did not see this coming – no one did - but I can’t wait!

Silva wanted a challenge and now he’s got one.  Forrest is as legit as they come and, more importantly, he is a HUGE light-heavyweight.  We will see how well Anderson can do at 205 after this fight because I think Griffin will give him all he can handle.

I don’t think he’s the best or anywhere near it – but, Forrest is a gamer and he is one man I would never feel comfortable betting against.  If he wins this fight, his legacy as a ‘giant killer’ is going to be cemented.

B.J. vs. Kenny AND Anderson vs. Forrest?  Yea, you’ll be seeing me in Philly.

5) Joe Stevenson to train at Greg Jackson’s Camp for upcoming fight with Nate Diaz

Good move by Joe as a change of scenery was needed.

This guy was such a blue-chip prospect after TUF2, but it seems like he has hit the ceiling on his potential.  Don’t get me wrong, he has had a lot of success in the UFC, but it seems like he has remained stagnant in his skills.  It looks like they will only be good enough to bring him to his current role as a gatekeeper of sorts.  Hopefully, the new camp will change things around.

It all goes back to what I’ve always said.  The fighters that become the biggest stars from TUF are the ones with potential – like Florian, Evans and Forrest.  Not the ones who win their season because they are so far ahead of the other competitors in terms of experience – like Joe Daddy and Danzig.

That wraps up this week at Intelligently Defending.  Check back for a mailbag on Monday - I am chomping at the bit to talk about Jose Canseco’s MMA career, but I’ll save it.

Also, if anyone would like to make some money, I Want Revenge is winning the Derby tomorrow.  You can take that to the bank.

Have a good weekend – leave some love and/or hate in the comments section.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

The top of the ladder is getting awfully crowded in the UFC middleweight division. There are no less than five fighters in contention for the next shot at middleweight champion Anderson Silva after he takes on – and destroys – Thales Leites at UFC 97.

The five fighters in question recently went before the UFC high counsel and each gave their arguments as to why they deserve the next shot at the title. Here is what they had to say.

Note: These 100% fictional arguments do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Intelligently Defending - they are merely the arguments that were presented to the high counsel.

Michael Bisping:

I am one of the most popular fighters in the UFC and by far their most popular overseas. A title fight between Anderson and me, if held in England, would shatter all revenue records for a United Kingdom MMA event.

Silva vs. Maia?  Yea, that will really put asses in the seats.  Not.

Apart from being a smart business move, I have earned the right to fight for the gold. I’m 7-1 in the UFC with my only loss being a hard-fought decision to the current Light-Heavyweight Champion. Since dropping to middleweight, I’m 3-0 and have looked great. A win over Dan Henderson will finally give me a victory over a top name and cement me as the #1 contender.

Dan Henderson:

As far as MMA legacies go, I trump all of these guys. I held the Pride Welterweight and Middleweight Titles at the SAME TIME. What’s the biggest accomplishment among these Ham & Eggers? King of Pancrase? Give me a break

I know Silva beat me the first time – but may I remind you that I’m the only person in the UFC to win a round against him (except for Lutter, but that chump didn’t even make weight). I also just beat the fighter widely considered the second best in the division - and after I trash Bisping I’ll have two wins over top contenders.

Anderson got the best of me the first time, but I deserve another crack at the champ.

Nate Marquardt:

Did anyone see that beatdown I gave Wilson Gouveia at 95? All I’ve been doing since losing to Silva is handing out beatdowns – three wins and three decisive finishes. I whooped Kampmann so bad that he dropped to welterweight. Yea I know, I lost a split-decision to Leites, but we all know the second point deduction was garbage - I owned that fight.

Fact is, I’m a terrible match-up for Silva. I took him down at will in our first fight and I’ll do it again. I made one little mistake and he capitalized, but it wont happen this time. He has holes in his game and I will expose them.

Unlike some of these other guys *coughHendersoncough*, I’m in the prime of my career and have earned a right to another shot.

Demian Maia:

Forget about the rest of this group. I am the wave of the future at middleweight.

I’m 5-0 in the UFC with 5 submission victories. Jensen, Herman, MacDonald, Quarry and Sonnen – those are some good names. Who cares if they’re not top contenders? They’re all respected middleweights and I dominated every last of one them.

These fighters aren’t on my level, plain-and-simple.

I’m not one of the best BJJ practitioners in MMA – I’m one of the best in the world. Silva has never been in there with someone like me. If I get him to the ground it’s over – new champion. That’s why I have the best chance at beating him, and thus, am the #1 contender.

Yushin Okami:

Has the whole world gone and forgot about me? I can’t blame them since the UFC doesn’t want anyone to know about me in the first-place. Enough is enough.

I’m 7-1 in the UFC with my only loss to Franklin. Do I get rewarded with a main card fight at 92? No, I get a prelim with Dean freaking Lister whose main goal was to lie on his back and avoid having me pepper his face with punches on the feet.

Let’s also not forget that the last man to beat Silva was me. DQ or not, a win is a win - and it would be a great marketing tool to promote our fight.

Hell, I don’t even know why we’re having this conversation. I was already supposed to get my title shot at 90, but got injured. Well, I’m back now so I deserve to fight for the gold, as promised. This isn’t rocket science.

Conclusion

It’s a tough call - they all present interesting arguments and raise some good points.

In the end, two of the three will most likely get title shots in the somewhat near future – the winner of Henderson/Bisping and the winner of a Marquardt/Maia bout since neither has a signature win on their resume.

My main man Yushin Okami is going to get screwed again, unless Silva beats Leites in less than two minutes and they can squeeze in a Silva/Okami showdown around the same time these other bouts are taking place – which isn’t out of the question.

And yes, I am 100% writing off any chance Thales has at beating Anderson at 97. If you want to call me an idiot for doing so, please do. Just remember, Leites couldn’t submit Pete Sell, I wouldn’t hold out much hope for him subbing Silva.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

UFC 95 is in the books.  Let’s take a look at how smart/stupid I am and also give some thoughts.

The Undercard:

I said:

Paul Kelly vs. Troy Mandaloniz:
Prediction: Kelly, TKO, Rd. 2 – Kelly is going to eat him on the ground.

Per Eklund vs. Evan Dunham:
Prediction: Eklund, Decision – why not?

Mike Ciesnolevicz vs. Neil Grove:
Prediction: Grove, TKO, Rd. 2 – I have no idea and I don’t want to type the other guy’s last name again.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Sefan Struve:
Prediction: Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 1 – Have I ever mentioned how I predicted Dos Santos knocking out Werdum?

Terry Etim vs. Brian Cobb:
Prediction: Etim, Submission, Rd. 2 – I’m using the “British fighter set-up for a win on his home turf” logic on this one.

I had Kelly winning, but didn’t have it going to a decision.

Way off on Per Eklund and Grove.

Right on the money with Dos Santos.  The dude has hands.

Had Etim and the round, but not the means of victory.  Etim looked great, by the way.

Overall, I was hit or miss, but I hit more than missed.  Let’s go above average.  Grade: B+ (3.3)

The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

I said:

I feel a stand-up battle in this one. People say Josh may take it to the ground because he doesn’t want to trade with an unknown fighter, but I say he keeps it standing because he doesn’t want to test the submission skills of an unknown fighter. Look for Josh to control things on the feet and eventually catch Paulo with a big punch. From there, he goes to the ground and finishes with ground and pound.

Prediction: Koscheck, TKO, Rd. 2

I’m pretty pissed at myself for not smelling one of my patented “trap-fight upsets.”  Oh well.  Grade: F (0.0)

Dammit, Josh.  That’s not what you needed.  He was throwing some real bombs and it was a matter of time before he connected.  Too bad Thiago connected first (with the only good punch he threw the entire fight.)  Next time out, Kos will go back to his wrestling and get a win.  His stand-up is ten times better than it used to be, but it still has holes as evident on Saturday.

He will stay on the main card for his next bout.  I would like to see Karo fight Fitch, but Karo/Koscheck would work too.  Parisyan is getting a beatdown either way - that’s all that really matters.

Welome to the UFC Paulo Thiago.  I don’t really know what to make of that debut.  His stand-up looked horrible and then he ends it with a knockout – go figure.  This guy is all about submissions so I’m interested to see what he’s got on the ground.  Unfortunately, he will get booted to the prelims for his next fight and I smell Akihiro Gono in his future.

And for the record, I thought the stoppage was a tad too early, but I will never knock a ref for doing that.  Their job is harder than I could ever imagine and all they do is get criticized. Talk about thankless work.

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

I said:

This will be Sonnen’s only chance – he needs to use his superior wrestling to keep it standing and wear Demian out. It won’t happen. Maia will find a way to bring Chael down, even if it means pulling the former WEC champion on top of him. From there its academic as one of the best BJJ practitioners in the world seals the victory with a submission.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

I was spot on here. Grade: A (4.0)

How long is it going to take before someone gets on top of Maia and just stands up? Seriously, what was Sonnen doing? I know it wasn’t what caused the end of the fight, but still, he was playing around too much on the ground – there were a few different times when his move should have been to back off and get to his feet and instead he sat around in an open guard.

As I said, it wasn’t what ended the fight. Maia’s takedown, which kicked 20 different kinds of ass, was what did it. As a fan that has always been partial to watching great BJJ, it is a treat every time I get to see this guy fight. That was another beautiful submission.

I’ll have more on these guy’s next opponents in a bit.

Nathan Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia

I said:

In any case, Wilson’s tank won’t be an issue Saturday. He will be ready to roll and I see him scoring the mild upset. Marquardt will look for the takedown early, but not get it. Wilson will chop away at his legs and eventually slow Marquardt’s relentless onslaught. From there Nate will be a sitting duck for one of the bricks Gouveia carries around with him. Wilson catches him and The Great is out cold.

Prediction: Gouveia, TKO, Rd. 2

I’m looking for any kind of credit to give myself on this one, but can’t find it. Grade: F (0.0)

A great performance by Nate. Wilson really had nothing for him outside of a guillotine attempt and a few hard punches that he was never able to follow up on. Marquardt dominated every aspect and finally ended with some moves straight out of Mortal Kombat. Kudos, sir.

So Nate says he is ready for, and deserves, another title shot. In the words of Judas Priest “you got another thing coming.” He has gone 3-1 since losing to Silva, but needs another big win to earn a shot. The solution is to put him against Maia with the winner earning a chance at the gold.

Of course, you still have the winner of Bisping/Henderson likely gaining a crack at the champ too. Plus, there is always my main man Yushin Okami who I fear is getting lost in the shuffle. Needless to say, there is no shortage of people to get added to the Anderson Silva highlight reel – some for their second time.

As for Sonnen, the UFC will pull the old winner vs. winner/loser vs. loser and put him up against Gouveia in what would be a pretty good fight.

Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham

I said:

Look for Hardy to be the more technical of the two and pick Markham apart and eventually drop him with strikes in the second.

Did you smell my conviction in that pick?

Prediction: Hardy, TKO, Rd. 2

I had the winner and means of victory. Wrong round, though. Let’s keep it moderate since I really didn’t have strong feeling either way. Grade: B+ (3.3)

Terrible mohawk aside, I like Hardy. I don’t know why exactly, just seems like a cool guy. I don’t think he’s particularly good or anything, but he has the right attitude. He also hits pretty hard, apparently.

It looks like with the help of some friendly trash-talking he has set himself up for a showdown with Marcus Davis. Marcus can’t be happy about this since the guy has been itching to get a crack at a top welterweight. If this fight does go down I cant see it being too competitive. If he is smart, Marcus will take it to the ground and easily submit Dan, who is just a Blue Belt. On the feet, Davis would still win – but it wouldn’t be as easy.

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

I said:

Sanchez will come out like a mad-man, as always, and apply the early pressure. He gets the better of the stand-up with his reach advantage and eventually scores the takedown. He won’t finish it in the first, but Stevenson will be hurt. When the second starts, Nightmare gets the early takedown and eventually pounds out the win.

Prediction: Sanchez, TKO, Rd. 2

I had the winner, but gave Diego a little too much credit. We’ll stay moderate. Grade: B (3.0)

I hear a lot of people calling this fight boring, but I thought it was a decent scrap. The second round, in particular, had some good action.

Diego just outclassed him, though he didn’t look spectacular doing it. I hope it was because of the weight cut because I was really looking forward to a re-energized Nightmare at lightweight. He didn’t look “bad” on Saturday by any means, but it wasn’t what I was hoping for.

For his next fight, Sanchez can take on anyone in the lightweight division and have it be a fresh match-up - so take your pick. I wouldn’t mind seeing him fight Josh Neer. That could headline a Fight Night easy.

Welcome to the Gate Joe - keep it well.

I touched on this in my last Reader Response post and Rogan talked about it during the fight – Joe still fights the same way he did on TUF2. Given how long he has been around, you got to figure he is as good as he will ever be – and that is a solid lightweight who will never be champion.

His role as a gatekeeper will be an upper-echelon one. If you want a title shot, you got to go through Daddy. Unlike a guy like Clementi, who was a gatekeeper for the up-and-comers.

Before he assumes this role, Joe will get a nice rebound fight. It will probably be an import fighter that Joe will welcome to the UFC on a prelim.

Ken’s GPA: C (2.22) That’s actually not as bad as I expected.

Overall, a super-fun show. Some sweet KO’s, some slick submissions and one awesome fight (Marquardt/Gouveia). You really cant ask for more on a free show. Plus, we saw like 9 fights – that’s unprecedented.

A great effort from all involved.

Anyone else have some thoughts?

-Ken
http//:www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

UFC 95 is tomorrow night so let’s try to figure out the card. Post-Mortem to follow Monday-ish.

The Undercard:

Paul Kelly vs. Troy Mandaloniz:

Prediction: Kelly, TKO, Rd. 2 – Kelly is going to eat him on the ground.

Per Eklund vs. Evan Dunham:

Prediction: Eklund, Decision – why not?

Mike Ciesnolevicz vs. Neil Grove:

Prediction: Grove, TKO, Rd. 2 – I have no idea and I don’t want to type the other guy’s last name again.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Sefan Struve:

Prediction: Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 1 – Have I ever mentioned how I predicted Dos Santos knocking out Werdum?

Terry Etim vs. Brian Cobb:

Prediction: Etim, Submission, Rd. 2 – I’m using the “British fighter set-up for a win on his home turf” logic on this one.

Good Lord, this has to be one of the worst prelims in a long time. On any undercard there is usually one or two – maybe three if it’s an England show – guys that I know nothing about, but there are about six on this one. Oh well, it is the undercard after all and with all the Brits on it I’m sure we’ll see some spirited battles.

The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

Some people have been complaining about Kos fighting an unknown, but take a look at his last 6 fights: Sanchez, GSP, Hazelett, Lytle, Alves and Yoshida. Good grief, the guys deserves a lay-up fight.

Of course, with an unknown fighter, such as Paulo Thiago, you never know if you’re getting a lay-up. Thiago apparently has submissions and is currently undefeated. Still, Kos has got this. Josh has really been fighting well, even in his loss to Alves he put up a fight and showed some real toughness.

I feel a stand-up battle in this one. People say Josh may take it to the ground because he doesn’t want to trade with an unknown fighter, but I say he keeps it standing because he doesn’t want to test the submission skills of an unknown fighter. Look for Josh to control things on the feet and eventually catch Paulo with a big punch. From there, he goes to the ground and finishes with ground and pound.

Prediction: Koscheck, TKO, Rd. 2

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

This is a rough return to the UFC for Chael Sonnen. Maia has been unstoppable thus far in his, and Sonnen has been tapped by far less caliber of grapplers. No matter, feeding Sonnen to the lions isn’t a big deal because I personally don’t think he’s that good to begin with. Yeah, he beat Paulo Filho, but that wasn’t Paulo Filho he was fighting – it was a nutjob.

The only time Maia has looked human thus far was against Ed Herman of all people. Herman won the first round if memory serves correct and Maia was gassed by the second. Of course, he still found a way to tap Short Fuse, but it wasn’t easy.

This will be Sonnen’s only chance – he needs to use his superior wrestling to keep it standing and wear Demian out. It won’t happen. Maia will find a way to bring Chael down, even if it means pulling the former WEC champion on top of him. From there its academic as one of the best BJJ practitioners in the world seals the victory with a submission.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

Wilson Gouveia vs. Nate Marquardt

Super-amped for this one.

Nate is a beast and looked great in his last fight against Martin Kampmann. He is one of the best middleweights in the division and if he can string together a few more wins he will have his name right near the top of title contention.

Wilson Gouveia is a fighter I’ve always liked. He hits like a mac-truck, has awesome leg-kicks and is a Black-Belt in BJJ. That’s my kind of guy. I also loved his move to the 185lb division because it is a much better fit for him. The problem has always been his gas tank, in fact, if it weren’t for his cardio problems he probably would have beat Keith Jardine in his UFC debut and his career would have taken an entirely different path.

In any case, Wilson’s tank won’t be an issue Saturday. He will be ready to roll and I see him scoring the mild upset. Marquardt will look for the takedown early, but not get it. Wilson will chop away at his legs and eventually slow Marquardt’s relentless onslaught. From there Nate will be a sitting duck for one of the bricks Gouveia carries around with him. Wilson catches him and The Great is out cold.

Prediction: Gouveia, TKO, Rd. 2

Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham

I won’t believe that this fight is the co-main event until I see it Saturday night. I know Hardy is a local guy, but come on – he just won a split decision over Akihiro freaking Gono in his first UFC fight. Hardy’s record also includes loses to Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Forrest Petz and 2 to David Baron. As for Markham, he had that amazing head-kick against Brodie Farber, but if I remember correctly he was losing the fight to that point.

Well, in any case, this is by far the fight I’m least looking forward to on the main card. Should be a nice brawl, I guess.

Look for Hardy to be the more technical of the two and pick Markham apart and eventually drop him with strikes in the second.

Did you smell my conviction in that pick?

Prediction: Hardy, TKO, Rd. 2

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

This really isn’t main event quality, but I’m pumped for this fight.

I love Diego’s drop to lightweight and am very interested to see how he does. If the weigh-in is any indication, he should be good to go because he was ripped to shreds.

Joe is, and will continue to be, a solid lightweight - but I think he loses another in this one. He just hasn’t progressed enough since The Ultimate Fighter.

Sanchez will come out like a mad-man, as always, and apply the early pressure. He gets the better of the stand-up with his reach advantage and eventually scores the takedown. He won’t finish it in the first, but Stevenson will be hurt. When the second starts, Nightmare gets the early takedown and eventually pounds out the win.

Prediction: Sanchez, TKO, Rd. 2

There you go. Not an amazing card, but if you look at it as a Fight Night since it’s free (in the States) you can appreciate it for a nice, inexpensive Saturday night.

Enjoy all, and check back here for a Post-Mortem

-Ken

http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com