The main card for UFC 121 has been announced and it’s a doozy.

Let’s take a look:
Date: Saturday, Oct. 23, 2010
Location: Honda Center in Anaheim, California

265 lbs.: Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez
205 lbs.: Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz
265 lbs.: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub
170 lbs.: Martin Kampmann vs. Jake Shields
170 lbs.: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago

Brock vs. Cain is huge. I was one of the first people on the Velasquez bandwagon when he arrived and it’s been a joy to watch him develop these last two and a half years. He started as a mammoth wrestler and has grown into a mammoth wrestler with serious ground ‘n pound and improving strikes. On the other hand, I love Brock too and want him to develop a great legacy in the sport – so I will officially be torn on this one. I probably wont know who I want until the bell sounds.

Tell you one thing, I like Velasquez’s chances. I think his boxing, though not as powerful, is more technical than Carwin’s. If he can stuff a takedown or two from Lesnar he can catch the champ with a punch and then probably learn from Shane’s mistake and meticulously work for a finish - instead of unloading wild punches and gassing… Wait, I mean, unloading wild punches and getting Lactic Acidosis. My mistake.

Of course, Brock is going to have twenty pounds on him so stuffing a takedown will be easier said than done – but we’ll see.

Tito vs. Hamill will mark the first time a TUF coach has fought one of his own fighters. I have no clue how this is going to go. Ortiz’s stand-up is probably more technical than Matt’s, but Matt’s is more powerful – ugliness notwithstanding. I don’t see Hamill wanting to take this to the ground and I don’t think Tito will get the big fella down – so I’d say we’re in for an entertaining 15-minute train wreck.

I realize Gabriel just got knocked on his ass by Junior two Saints, but I still think this may be too big a step up for Schaub. Still, Brendan has been knocking kids out and when your chin is as glass as Napao’s has been lately you always have to be cautious. A win for Schaub propels him to the next level and a win for Gabe gives him some momentum after a crushing defeat.

The UFC Welcome Committee President, Martin Kampmann, will introduce the company’s new prize-possession Jake Shields to the Octagon. I know it’s hard to bet against Jake after that dominating performance over Dan Henderson, but don’t sleep on Marty. If Shields doesn’t bring his ‘A’ game he’s walking out with the loser’s share.

Diego vs. Paulo will send one man back to relevancy and one man into deep, deep trouble. Personally, I think Paulo has been overrated from the start and Sanchez will show some new life now that he’s back with Greg Jackson – but we’ll have to wait and see.

Overall, this looks great on paper. The queso dip and wings will be flowing at my place come the 23rd of October.

Stay lucky.
Ken

UFC 95 is in the books.  Let’s take a look at how smart/stupid I am and also give some thoughts.

The Undercard:

I said:

Paul Kelly vs. Troy Mandaloniz:
Prediction: Kelly, TKO, Rd. 2 – Kelly is going to eat him on the ground.

Per Eklund vs. Evan Dunham:
Prediction: Eklund, Decision – why not?

Mike Ciesnolevicz vs. Neil Grove:
Prediction: Grove, TKO, Rd. 2 – I have no idea and I don’t want to type the other guy’s last name again.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Sefan Struve:
Prediction: Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 1 – Have I ever mentioned how I predicted Dos Santos knocking out Werdum?

Terry Etim vs. Brian Cobb:
Prediction: Etim, Submission, Rd. 2 – I’m using the “British fighter set-up for a win on his home turf” logic on this one.

I had Kelly winning, but didn’t have it going to a decision.

Way off on Per Eklund and Grove.

Right on the money with Dos Santos.  The dude has hands.

Had Etim and the round, but not the means of victory.  Etim looked great, by the way.

Overall, I was hit or miss, but I hit more than missed.  Let’s go above average.  Grade: B+ (3.3)

The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

I said:

I feel a stand-up battle in this one. People say Josh may take it to the ground because he doesn’t want to trade with an unknown fighter, but I say he keeps it standing because he doesn’t want to test the submission skills of an unknown fighter. Look for Josh to control things on the feet and eventually catch Paulo with a big punch. From there, he goes to the ground and finishes with ground and pound.

Prediction: Koscheck, TKO, Rd. 2

I’m pretty pissed at myself for not smelling one of my patented “trap-fight upsets.”  Oh well.  Grade: F (0.0)

Dammit, Josh.  That’s not what you needed.  He was throwing some real bombs and it was a matter of time before he connected.  Too bad Thiago connected first (with the only good punch he threw the entire fight.)  Next time out, Kos will go back to his wrestling and get a win.  His stand-up is ten times better than it used to be, but it still has holes as evident on Saturday.

He will stay on the main card for his next bout.  I would like to see Karo fight Fitch, but Karo/Koscheck would work too.  Parisyan is getting a beatdown either way - that’s all that really matters.

Welome to the UFC Paulo Thiago.  I don’t really know what to make of that debut.  His stand-up looked horrible and then he ends it with a knockout – go figure.  This guy is all about submissions so I’m interested to see what he’s got on the ground.  Unfortunately, he will get booted to the prelims for his next fight and I smell Akihiro Gono in his future.

And for the record, I thought the stoppage was a tad too early, but I will never knock a ref for doing that.  Their job is harder than I could ever imagine and all they do is get criticized. Talk about thankless work.

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

I said:

This will be Sonnen’s only chance – he needs to use his superior wrestling to keep it standing and wear Demian out. It won’t happen. Maia will find a way to bring Chael down, even if it means pulling the former WEC champion on top of him. From there its academic as one of the best BJJ practitioners in the world seals the victory with a submission.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

I was spot on here. Grade: A (4.0)

How long is it going to take before someone gets on top of Maia and just stands up? Seriously, what was Sonnen doing? I know it wasn’t what caused the end of the fight, but still, he was playing around too much on the ground – there were a few different times when his move should have been to back off and get to his feet and instead he sat around in an open guard.

As I said, it wasn’t what ended the fight. Maia’s takedown, which kicked 20 different kinds of ass, was what did it. As a fan that has always been partial to watching great BJJ, it is a treat every time I get to see this guy fight. That was another beautiful submission.

I’ll have more on these guy’s next opponents in a bit.

Nathan Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia

I said:

In any case, Wilson’s tank won’t be an issue Saturday. He will be ready to roll and I see him scoring the mild upset. Marquardt will look for the takedown early, but not get it. Wilson will chop away at his legs and eventually slow Marquardt’s relentless onslaught. From there Nate will be a sitting duck for one of the bricks Gouveia carries around with him. Wilson catches him and The Great is out cold.

Prediction: Gouveia, TKO, Rd. 2

I’m looking for any kind of credit to give myself on this one, but can’t find it. Grade: F (0.0)

A great performance by Nate. Wilson really had nothing for him outside of a guillotine attempt and a few hard punches that he was never able to follow up on. Marquardt dominated every aspect and finally ended with some moves straight out of Mortal Kombat. Kudos, sir.

So Nate says he is ready for, and deserves, another title shot. In the words of Judas Priest “you got another thing coming.” He has gone 3-1 since losing to Silva, but needs another big win to earn a shot. The solution is to put him against Maia with the winner earning a chance at the gold.

Of course, you still have the winner of Bisping/Henderson likely gaining a crack at the champ too. Plus, there is always my main man Yushin Okami who I fear is getting lost in the shuffle. Needless to say, there is no shortage of people to get added to the Anderson Silva highlight reel – some for their second time.

As for Sonnen, the UFC will pull the old winner vs. winner/loser vs. loser and put him up against Gouveia in what would be a pretty good fight.

Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham

I said:

Look for Hardy to be the more technical of the two and pick Markham apart and eventually drop him with strikes in the second.

Did you smell my conviction in that pick?

Prediction: Hardy, TKO, Rd. 2

I had the winner and means of victory. Wrong round, though. Let’s keep it moderate since I really didn’t have strong feeling either way. Grade: B+ (3.3)

Terrible mohawk aside, I like Hardy. I don’t know why exactly, just seems like a cool guy. I don’t think he’s particularly good or anything, but he has the right attitude. He also hits pretty hard, apparently.

It looks like with the help of some friendly trash-talking he has set himself up for a showdown with Marcus Davis. Marcus can’t be happy about this since the guy has been itching to get a crack at a top welterweight. If this fight does go down I cant see it being too competitive. If he is smart, Marcus will take it to the ground and easily submit Dan, who is just a Blue Belt. On the feet, Davis would still win – but it wouldn’t be as easy.

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

I said:

Sanchez will come out like a mad-man, as always, and apply the early pressure. He gets the better of the stand-up with his reach advantage and eventually scores the takedown. He won’t finish it in the first, but Stevenson will be hurt. When the second starts, Nightmare gets the early takedown and eventually pounds out the win.

Prediction: Sanchez, TKO, Rd. 2

I had the winner, but gave Diego a little too much credit. We’ll stay moderate. Grade: B (3.0)

I hear a lot of people calling this fight boring, but I thought it was a decent scrap. The second round, in particular, had some good action.

Diego just outclassed him, though he didn’t look spectacular doing it. I hope it was because of the weight cut because I was really looking forward to a re-energized Nightmare at lightweight. He didn’t look “bad” on Saturday by any means, but it wasn’t what I was hoping for.

For his next fight, Sanchez can take on anyone in the lightweight division and have it be a fresh match-up - so take your pick. I wouldn’t mind seeing him fight Josh Neer. That could headline a Fight Night easy.

Welcome to the Gate Joe - keep it well.

I touched on this in my last Reader Response post and Rogan talked about it during the fight – Joe still fights the same way he did on TUF2. Given how long he has been around, you got to figure he is as good as he will ever be – and that is a solid lightweight who will never be champion.

His role as a gatekeeper will be an upper-echelon one. If you want a title shot, you got to go through Daddy. Unlike a guy like Clementi, who was a gatekeeper for the up-and-comers.

Before he assumes this role, Joe will get a nice rebound fight. It will probably be an import fighter that Joe will welcome to the UFC on a prelim.

Ken’s GPA: C (2.22) That’s actually not as bad as I expected.

Overall, a super-fun show. Some sweet KO’s, some slick submissions and one awesome fight (Marquardt/Gouveia). You really cant ask for more on a free show. Plus, we saw like 9 fights – that’s unprecedented.

A great effort from all involved.

Anyone else have some thoughts?

-Ken
http//:www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

UFC 95 is tomorrow night so let’s try to figure out the card. Post-Mortem to follow Monday-ish.

The Undercard:

Paul Kelly vs. Troy Mandaloniz:

Prediction: Kelly, TKO, Rd. 2 – Kelly is going to eat him on the ground.

Per Eklund vs. Evan Dunham:

Prediction: Eklund, Decision – why not?

Mike Ciesnolevicz vs. Neil Grove:

Prediction: Grove, TKO, Rd. 2 – I have no idea and I don’t want to type the other guy’s last name again.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Sefan Struve:

Prediction: Dos Santos, TKO, Rd. 1 – Have I ever mentioned how I predicted Dos Santos knocking out Werdum?

Terry Etim vs. Brian Cobb:

Prediction: Etim, Submission, Rd. 2 – I’m using the “British fighter set-up for a win on his home turf” logic on this one.

Good Lord, this has to be one of the worst prelims in a long time. On any undercard there is usually one or two – maybe three if it’s an England show – guys that I know nothing about, but there are about six on this one. Oh well, it is the undercard after all and with all the Brits on it I’m sure we’ll see some spirited battles.

The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

Some people have been complaining about Kos fighting an unknown, but take a look at his last 6 fights: Sanchez, GSP, Hazelett, Lytle, Alves and Yoshida. Good grief, the guys deserves a lay-up fight.

Of course, with an unknown fighter, such as Paulo Thiago, you never know if you’re getting a lay-up. Thiago apparently has submissions and is currently undefeated. Still, Kos has got this. Josh has really been fighting well, even in his loss to Alves he put up a fight and showed some real toughness.

I feel a stand-up battle in this one. People say Josh may take it to the ground because he doesn’t want to trade with an unknown fighter, but I say he keeps it standing because he doesn’t want to test the submission skills of an unknown fighter. Look for Josh to control things on the feet and eventually catch Paulo with a big punch. From there, he goes to the ground and finishes with ground and pound.

Prediction: Koscheck, TKO, Rd. 2

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

This is a rough return to the UFC for Chael Sonnen. Maia has been unstoppable thus far in his, and Sonnen has been tapped by far less caliber of grapplers. No matter, feeding Sonnen to the lions isn’t a big deal because I personally don’t think he’s that good to begin with. Yeah, he beat Paulo Filho, but that wasn’t Paulo Filho he was fighting – it was a nutjob.

The only time Maia has looked human thus far was against Ed Herman of all people. Herman won the first round if memory serves correct and Maia was gassed by the second. Of course, he still found a way to tap Short Fuse, but it wasn’t easy.

This will be Sonnen’s only chance – he needs to use his superior wrestling to keep it standing and wear Demian out. It won’t happen. Maia will find a way to bring Chael down, even if it means pulling the former WEC champion on top of him. From there its academic as one of the best BJJ practitioners in the world seals the victory with a submission.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

Wilson Gouveia vs. Nate Marquardt

Super-amped for this one.

Nate is a beast and looked great in his last fight against Martin Kampmann. He is one of the best middleweights in the division and if he can string together a few more wins he will have his name right near the top of title contention.

Wilson Gouveia is a fighter I’ve always liked. He hits like a mac-truck, has awesome leg-kicks and is a Black-Belt in BJJ. That’s my kind of guy. I also loved his move to the 185lb division because it is a much better fit for him. The problem has always been his gas tank, in fact, if it weren’t for his cardio problems he probably would have beat Keith Jardine in his UFC debut and his career would have taken an entirely different path.

In any case, Wilson’s tank won’t be an issue Saturday. He will be ready to roll and I see him scoring the mild upset. Marquardt will look for the takedown early, but not get it. Wilson will chop away at his legs and eventually slow Marquardt’s relentless onslaught. From there Nate will be a sitting duck for one of the bricks Gouveia carries around with him. Wilson catches him and The Great is out cold.

Prediction: Gouveia, TKO, Rd. 2

Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham

I won’t believe that this fight is the co-main event until I see it Saturday night. I know Hardy is a local guy, but come on – he just won a split decision over Akihiro freaking Gono in his first UFC fight. Hardy’s record also includes loses to Yoshiyuki Yoshida, Forrest Petz and 2 to David Baron. As for Markham, he had that amazing head-kick against Brodie Farber, but if I remember correctly he was losing the fight to that point.

Well, in any case, this is by far the fight I’m least looking forward to on the main card. Should be a nice brawl, I guess.

Look for Hardy to be the more technical of the two and pick Markham apart and eventually drop him with strikes in the second.

Did you smell my conviction in that pick?

Prediction: Hardy, TKO, Rd. 2

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

This really isn’t main event quality, but I’m pumped for this fight.

I love Diego’s drop to lightweight and am very interested to see how he does. If the weigh-in is any indication, he should be good to go because he was ripped to shreds.

Joe is, and will continue to be, a solid lightweight - but I think he loses another in this one. He just hasn’t progressed enough since The Ultimate Fighter.

Sanchez will come out like a mad-man, as always, and apply the early pressure. He gets the better of the stand-up with his reach advantage and eventually scores the takedown. He won’t finish it in the first, but Stevenson will be hurt. When the second starts, Nightmare gets the early takedown and eventually pounds out the win.

Prediction: Sanchez, TKO, Rd. 2

There you go. Not an amazing card, but if you look at it as a Fight Night since it’s free (in the States) you can appreciate it for a nice, inexpensive Saturday night.

Enjoy all, and check back here for a Post-Mortem

-Ken

http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com