You know, about a week ago I was ready to write this card off completely.  As usual though, I’ve talked myself into it being a barn-burner event with a ton of competitive fights.  I am a puppet and Dana is the puppeteer.

I’m skipping the prelims this time around because, well, I completely forgot to do them.  Much love to C.B. Dollaway though – haters gonna hate, son.

Here are my picks…

1) Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens

How we got here:

I forget who, but someone called someone out in this one. I think it may have been Stephens calling out Guillard after the Stout fight – but I could be wrong.

In any event, Joe Silva thought putting two exciting bangers against each other was a fine idea – so here we are. There has also been quite a bit of trash talk among these two going into Saturday. Pretty sure we can expect fireworks.

What’s at stake:

Both fighters are on a two-fight win streak against mediocre competition. The implications of this fight are identical for both men: Win and stay on the main card and get labeled a ‘contender’. Lose and it’s back to the prelims and continue to look like a fighter who chokes in big spots.

The breakdown:

If you’re a fan of grappling, you may want to run out for some dip during this one. This hits the canvas only because one man falls there as a result of losing touch with consciousness.

The funny thing is that trying to take this fight to the ground would be a sound strategy for both guys. I don’t see either being able to do much off their backs and whoever was on top would have a chance at some lethal ground ‘n pound.

Alas, such logic is beyond these two and we will instead see a highly entertaining brawl with each man swinging for the fences. We know they both have power and are planning on using it.

I say:

This is a tough one to call, but in the end I see Melvin landing something that puts Jeremy to bed.

Stephens is coming off a big win over the more technical Sam Stout, but the Canadian didn’t possess the power that Lil’ Heathen will be facing Saturday night. I think his time with Greg Jackson has helped Melvin seal up some of his deficiencies in his boxing and he should be able to avoid the heavy shots from Jeremy. Look for the Young Assassin to use his speed and catch the Iowa native in the second with a hook and follow up with punches on the ground to end it.

Prediction: Guillard, TKO, Rd. 2

2) Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

How we got here:

Evan Dunham has been on an absolute tear taking out four straight UFC opponents in impressive fashion. He is 11-0 and is in need of a top-level name.

Enter Sean Sherk who has not been seen in over a year since being shocked by now UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar.

What’s at stake:

For Dunham, a win would mean just one or two more victories until he challenges for the gold.

For Sherk, defeating Dunham would show the world that the 37-year-old still has something left in the gas tank and has what it takes to challenge the young lions who are quickly filling up the division.

The breakdown:

Evan will have an enormous reach advantage which will be a problem for Sherk who has favored his boxing in recent years. On the wrestling front, Sean should have the advantage. However, putting Dunham on his back is always a scary thought given his grappling prowess.

Injuries are a huge question for the Muscle Shark. He has pulled out of three consecutive fights due to injury and if he is not 100% on Saturday he has virtually no chance.

I say:

I don’t know why I keep picking the old guys in these ‘grizzled vet vs. young gun’ fights, but I’m going to do it again. Look for some old-school Sherk who repeatedly double legs Dunham and shows vintage top control in route to a decision win.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

3) Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

How we got here:

These two fought four years ago to a controversial decision in the finals of TUF4. Serra was given the nod in a fight where there wasn’t a clear cut winner. The decision would end up changing the UFC Welterweight division forever. (I won’t get into details since as far as I’m concerned TUF4 never happened.)

Anyway, both are coming off wins and since there isn’t much else for them to do at the moment, the UFC decided to run a rematch. Not a bad idea.

What’s at stake:

Not a whole lot to be terribly honest.

I think both men are winding down their careers and we know where both stand at this point. Lytle will be an experienced gamer for years to come. He will put up a fight against anyone in the division and make a nice living off ‘…of the night’ bonus checks. Serra will be a part-time fighter who has a chance no matter who he’s in there with thanks to heavy hands and top-level BJJ. He’s also going to give great sound bites for as long as he’s involved in the sport.

Still, a win or loss here isn’t going to change either man’s standing in the division. If nothing else, at least it will give some closure to a decision that left a bad taste in a lot of fans mouths four years ago.

The breakdown:

Given there is little on the line here as opposed to last time, you can expect both men to open up a bit more this time around. It should lead to an entertaining scrap.

Lytle is the more technical boxer of the two and will likely look to overwhelm Serra on the feet. Chris is a black belt in BJ, but not at the level of Matt. He would be a fool to want to take his chances on the ground with The Terror.

Matty is no slouch in the boxing department himself and probably has the heavier hands of the two. He looked great in knocking out Frank Trigg, but my instincts tell me he would rather get this to the canvas to give himself a better chance at victory. I just hope that strategy doesn’t lead to 100 foot stomps like last time did.

I say:

Finishing Chris Lytle is about as hopeless an endeavor as it gets, but I think Serra can grind a decision. Lytle will get the better of the stand-up and after not finding his home run shot, Serra will look to take things to the ground. My fellow Islander will get things to the ground easier this time around and grind to a decision.

Prediction: Serra, Decision

Fun Fact: Number of Fights since the TUF4 Finale – Lytle 11, Serra 4

4) Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

How we got here:

After an impressive knockout of Keith Jardine, Ryan Bader was in need of a ‘next step’ fight.

Perennial top-ten light-heavyweight Lil’ Nog will give him this fight. Antonio is coming off an uninspired performance against Jason Brilz where he scored a decision win in a fight that many people say he lost. He will look to re-cement himself as a contender in this bout.

What’s at stake:

The winner will most likely fight Jon ‘Bones’ Jones.

If Bader wins, a Jones vs. Darth fight would showcase two of the hottest young talents in the sport. And, if Nog is victorious, a clash with Greg Jackson’s star pupil will mark the biggest test for Jones to date.

Most importantly, a battle with Angry Jonny would likely be a #1 contender’s fight.

The breakdown:

Nogueira has the more technical boxing of the two, but Bader could put you to sleep at any time. Ryan is also improving his stand-up with each fight – the same can’t be said for the Brazilian.

The wrestling advantage will go to the All-American from ASU. He should be able to take Nog down at will, but playing on the mat with a Nogueira Brother is always a dangerous proposition.

It will be interesting to see where Bader decides he has a better chance of winning.

I say:

In the end, I think Ryan decides he would rather win this on the canvas than on the feet. He will bring down Rogerio early using his superior wrestling to score the takedowns along with his strength and underrated BJJ to stay out of submission attempts. Look for this to go on the full 15. Darth will apply some serious ground ‘n pound throughout as he notches his biggest win to date and announces his presence to the division with authority.

Prediction: Bader, Decision (Listen for the bell, Bonesy. It told for thee.)

5) Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipovic

How we got here:

This one was originally scheduled to be Frank Mir vs. Big Nog which would have given me a chance at vindication. Unfortunately, an injury to Antonio forced him to pull out of this fight.

Joe Silva put in a collect call to Croatia and got everyone’s favorite politician/fighter, Mirko CroCop, to step up to the plate. (Note: it’s not that hard to get that title when your only competition is Matt Lindland and Chael Sonnen.)

What’s at stake:

Surprisingly a lot.

It’s arguable that whoever wins could be set-up for a number one contender fight to be third in line after Cain and JDS.

The loser, however, will find themselves at a crossroads of their career. If Mirko loses, I can’t imagine him fighting again. And if Mir goes down, it will be a long time before he has another relevant fight.

The breakdown:

CroCop wants this on the feet at all costs. Finding himself on his back with Mir on top is basically a death sentence. He hasn’t been as sharp as he once was, but Mirko is still dangerous with his hands and I’m willing to bet the left-high kick still packs a wallop.

Mir has a bit more versatility on where he can be in this fight. While being on the ground would give him a decided advantage, he has shown some pretty good stand-up skills lately. Given that we are looking at an older, more injured CroCop, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Frank can hang with him standing.

I say:

I’m looking for some Croatian violence in this one. Mir will get cute with his stand-up early on to show he can go toe-to-toe with the most feared striker in MMA history. This will get him in trouble as CroCop finds a home for his left hand on Frank’s cranium in the second round. From there, Mir will realize he needs to get things to the mat, but it will be too little too late as a now confident Mirko stuffs a takedown and gives a brutal stand-up beating to end things. And, for old time’s sake, let’s say he finishes with his patented LHK.

Prediction: CroCop, TKO, Rd. 2

Enjoy Saturday everyone!

Stay lucky,
Ken

So here is the story…

About a month ago I started project managing the new season of Entourage at work and it consumed my life.  So, during that time, there weren’t any new posts - which is f’ing disgraceful given the fact that it was UFC 100 time and I also had the UFC 100 Dream Card Contest going on.

Speaking of the contest, thank you to everyone who submitted an entry.  The winner has been notified and will be receiving their prizes shortly.

I’m going to ease back into regularly scheduled posting and just give some quick thoughts on the mammoth UFC 100 card from last Saturday…

- I gave Belcher the fight with Akiyama, but I can’t say the decision was robbery.  My scorecard had rounds round 1 and 3 for Alan and round 2 for Yoshihiro.  It was razor thin though and could have gone either way.

- Overall, I wasn’t all that impressed by Akiyama – other than his entrance which kicked ass, as always.  I’m not sure if he took Belcher lightly or what, but he took a beating in this fight.  Perhaps I’m just underestimating Alan Belcher, who is getting a well-deserved reputation for coming to fight every time he enters the octagon.

- A solid win for Fitch as per usual.  It must be terrible having to fight after the main event.  The only other time I remember that happening was UFC 73 when Kenny Florian vs. Alvin Robinson took place after Silva/Marquardt.  That was the same night Kenny said he wanted to beat everyone until there was no doubt who the #1 contender was.  Funny how that turned out…

- Anyway, back to Fitch.  He is in such a weird spot because he can beat anyone in that division except the champ.  It’s like Rich Franklin at MW a few years ago.  For now, he has to hope this talk of GSP moving to 185 is true.  Until then, I expect a Fitch vs. Matt Hughes showdown.

- Henderson vs. Bisping was brutal.  From the start it was clear the Count was outmatched.  As old as Hendo is, he still seems to be at the same level he always was.  The knockout was brutal and brings me to my next point…

- I have no respect for “class act” Dan Henderson after what he did Saturday.  “I’ve been doing this a long time and I know when someone is out.  I knew he was out, that last shot was to shut him up.”  What a terrible, terrible thing to do to someone.  You can say ‘it was legal because the ref hadn’t stopped it yet’ all you want and you would be correct.  It may not have neen against the rules of MMA, but it was certainly against the rules of human decency.  To do that to another fighter who is going out there trying to feed his family is despicable – I don’t care how much trash Bisping talked.  I was terrified to see Bisping lying there unconscious as the replay of a flying forearm that could have been avoided got shown over and over again.  It stunk when Lawler did it to Trigg in Hawaii a few years ago – and it stinks now.

- GSP is the best fighter on the planet.  I become more confident in making this statement with each fight that passes.  His ability to control where the bout goes is uncanny.  That was a complete blowout of the supposed #2 fighter in the division.  There is really nothing left for him at 170.  Swick is solid, but stands no chance.  I guess it couldn’t hurt to have GSP fight him just to make sure there is no doubt.  Of course, Swick has to get by my main man Marty Kampmann first.

- I’m not a big Alves fan but he was game on Saturday.  Despite not having GSP in any trouble, at any point in the fight, he was a worthy adversary.  Kudos…

- That was an epic beat down that Brock laid upon Mir.  Frank’s face looked like raw hamburger meat afterwards.  I’m not sure if there is anything keeping Lesnar from doing that to the entire division.  Carwin is the only one I can see matching up well with him, but I don’t think he has the necessary speed or wrestling ability to win.  If Shane gets by Cain, we will see what happens.

- As for Brock’s post-fight comments, I could have done without them.  However, this article from MMAmania defending the champ made some really good points and I highly recommend it.

- At 41-years-old, Sable is every bit the babe that she was in her wrestling days.

That’s it for today.  Keep checking back for regularly scheduled posts.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

We’ve had some comments over here and at 411mania so lets take a look at a few:

1) In my UFC 92 Post-Mortem, Carminooch wrote:

A few people that I spoke too agreed with me in observing that Nog looked really out of shape. I haven’t seen it publicized anywhere that he looked pudgy except for a fleeting mention in one article. He also looked totally lost and unprepared once the fight started. This is all just speculation I know, but is there any reason to suspect Nog took this fight lightly?

No reason I can see, Carm.

Nog has never been known to have a great physique so I wouldn’t look too much into him being out of shape. I heard Dana White say that he was recovering from staph infection that he got during camp so that may have had something to do with his performance. Other than that though, it just looks like Minotauro had an off night and Mir didn’t.

2) In response to my Mythbusters: Nogueira vs. Mir, Mark wrote:

yes, Nog has been considered the #2 HW fighter in the world. But I have to ask, why?
Because his fight record?
Lets see who he has beat:

David DODD
Nate SCHROEDER
Valentijn OVEREEM
Iour KOTCHKINE
Jeremy HORN
Andrei KOPYLOV
Achmed LABASANOV
Kiyoshi TAMURA
Volk HAN
Hiromitsu KANAHARA
Gary GOODRIDGE
Mark COLEMAN
Heath HERRING
Enson INOUE
Sane Kikura
Bob SAPP
Semmy SCHILT
Dan HENDERSON
Rico RODRIGUEZ
CROCOP
Hirotaka YOKOI
Pawel NASTULA
Josh BARNETT
Tim SYLVIA

Aside from Sylvia , Henderson (who he has also lost to), Barnett (who he has also lost to), Ricco Rodriguez, it’s not an impressive group he has defeated.

Coleman was past his prime when Nog beat him, SAPP is huge but skill wise nothing special. CROCOP has no ground skills and was dominating the fight, but got taken down and was submitted.

Why is he ranked the #2 HW? The majority of his wins sure didn’t come through opponents who were impressive.

Goodridge was a straight kickboxer I believe and Heath is not a top level fighter although he is well known. Inoue is a decent fighter I guess but not top level either.

Thanks for the comment, Mark.

Nog’s resume is well-behind Fedor’s and is probably not as amazing as people make it out to be. Still, I think his ranking of #2 in the world was well-deserved.

Before breaking it down I just want to point out that your list is missing a few wins – most notably, his victories over Fabricio Werdum and Sergei Kharitonov which are both very good triumphs.

Since his first loss to Fedor, which is when I’m assuming he lot his status as #1 in the world even though I’m not 100% sure, Nog went 12-2-1 while considered the #2 heavyweight. His notable wins were against a still relevant Ricco Rodriguez, CroCop, Herring (2x), Kharitonov, Tamura, Werdum, Barnett and Sylvia. His losses were to Fedor and Barnett which he avenged. That’s pretty solid.

Apart from this, I don’t know who else you could put ahead of him. The only person I could see was Barnett, but he had too many losses to CroCop to be considered ahead of Nog.

3) Over at my New Years Resolution column at 411mania, Kevin wrote:

Chuck Liddell hasn’t become a “punching bag” at all. He was winning the Rashad fight and then Rashad landed a perfect powerful punch. Anybody that doesn’t want to see the iceman slug it out with anybody anymore aren’t true fans of the sport and it’s sad. Win or lose he is still one of the most exciting fighters around. Also, Chuck has earned the right to fight until whenever he wants. He’s won 7 in a row in the UFC twice. His legacy isn’t going anywhere mister writer / fake mma fan.

You’re right, Chuck has earned the right to fight as long as he wants. And for that matter, so has Ken Shamrock. Are people going to remember Ken Shamrock as an early pioneer of the sport or the complete joke that cut himself the day of a fight with Kimbo Slice? Brett Favre has earned the right to throw passes for as long as he wants – but, are people going to remember him as the Super Bowl XXXI champion or the jerk that kept causing a media circus with retirement talks every year?

We see legacy’s get tarnished time and time again with pro athletes that can’t decide when its time to walk away. Is Chuck one of these athletes? Not to this point, but he will be if things keep going the way they are. He has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and was knocked senseless in two of them. Everyone has figured out the secret to beating him is to not chase him and make him come to you – that’s a major problem since it’s too late for Liddell to learn new ways to win at age 39.

If not wanting to watch a second-rate Chuck Liddell continue to lose makes me a fake fan – then you are correct in your assessment.

Ken

http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com