UFC 118 is in the books; let’s see how the fights went down and how my picks went.

Note: The grades are based on how well I picked the fight and NOT on how good the fight was.

1) Nate Diaz defeats Marcus Davis via submission, Rd. 3

I said:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

Nate actually got the better of Marcus on the feet thanks to his reach.  Other than that though, I was pretty damn close outside of the round.  Let’s keep it high.  Grade: B+

Nate looked sensational here taking the fight right to Marcus and using some patented Diaz-brothers striking in the process.  Once he got things to the ground, it was academic as he locked in the choke.  Davis was game, but he was no match for the Stockton native who appears to really be coming into his own these days.  All he needs to do is to improve his wrestling and he could be a real player.

Next for Davis:  I’ve always been a fan of the Hand Grenade and I hope he gets one more shot inside the Octagon.  How about a fight with Matt Brown?  Loser leaves town.

Next for Diaz:  The biggest question here is will Nate stay at welterweight or move back down to lightweight.  If he stays, I wouldn’t mind seeing him try to avenge his brother’s loss to Diego Sanchez.  If he goes back down, I think a fight with my main man Joe Lauzon (who looked awesome Saturday) could be a main event for a Fight Night – maybe even the next TUF finale.

2) Gray Maynard defeats Kenny Florian via decision

I said:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

Damn.  Grade: F

Given my love for Kenny Florian and the role he’s played in my passion for the sport, this one was tough to watch.  Maynard came and did exactly what he needed to do – all the props in the world to him.  Kenny had no answer for Gray’s wrestling and it’s going to be a long way back to the top of the ladder.

Next for Florian:  Kenny is no spring chicken and if he ever wants to get another title shot he will have to go on a run starting right now.  I imagine he jumps right back into a fight against a top guy next time out.  The winner of Sherk/Dunham wouldn’t be bad.

Next for Maynard: A well-deserved lightweight title shot and rematch with Frankie Edgar.

3) Demian Maia defeats Mario Miranda via decision

I said:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

Maia did everything but finish the fight.  While I was wrong that this would be quick, it still was complete domination.  So I’ll call it decent.  Grade: B

Demian put on a clinic in this one, unfortunately, he really could have used a finish to cement his status as being back.  It seemed like he was tapping people with ease back when he first arrived in the UFC.  Of course, to be fair, Miranda’s ground game is better than he was getting credit for – including from yours truly.

Next for Miranda: A prelim fight - perhaps against Tim Creuder.

Next for Maia: I think a fight with the Chris Leben would make sense for both guys.  It’s a classic striker vs. grappler match-up and whichever guy wins will most likely be in the top-5 contenders in the middleweight division.

4) Randy Couture defeats James Toney via submission Rd. 1

I said:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

I actually had the means of victory wrong so let’s call it right below perfect.  Grade: A-

(Not that I’m tooting my own horn – after all, Stevie Wonder saw this coming.  By the way, why can’t Stevie Wonder see his friends?

Because he’s married…  Thank you, thank you – try the veal.)

This whole thing was absurd.  Only thing I can really say is the low single-leg was pretty cool.  Also, Dana can no longer claim he never puts on freak show fights.  Double negative, whatevs I do what I want.

Next for Toney: Maybe a fight in Strikeforce against Brett Rogers.

Next for Couture:  This is a tough call.  I know there is a lot of talk of returning to light-heavyweight and fights with the winner of Machida/Rampage or Anderson Silva but I’d like to see him stay at heavyweight and fight the winner of Mir/Cro-Cop.

5) Frankie Edgar defeats B.J. Penn via decision

I said:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I don’t usually toot my own horn – but, toot! toot!  You don’t hit the nail on the head on an upset call much harder than that.  Grade: A

We saw the end of an era Saturday as the little guy from Toms River took it to the once invincible Hawaiian warrior.  Frankie won in every aspect and I was particularly impressed with the amount of shots he landed on the feet and significant damage he did on the ground.  B.J. was a broken man by the third.  The win was picture perfect.

Next for Penn: A lot of soul-searching.  In the end, I think he makes a cameo in the welterweight division – maybe against Jon Fitch – but after mixed results announces his retirement from the sport.

Next for Frankie: A tangle with a Bully by the bike racks after school.

Going to be a busy one, but I’ll try to get a few more updates in before the week is over.

Stay lucky,
Ken

UFC 118 is Saturday.  Let’s make some picks.

I tried to spruce these up a bit, let me know what you think…

1) Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

How we got here:

After an impressive UFC welterweight debut against Rory Markham, Nate Diaz was ready for a bigger test and Marcus Davis is the man to give it to him.

Davis fell on hard times a few fights back, but recently returned to the win column with a victory over Jonathan ‘Glass Joe’ Goulet.  It’s now time for Marcus to try his luck against a big name opponent.

I also feel like there was some name calling that spawned this match-up, but I may just be imagining that given a Diaz is involved.

What’s at stake:

A win for Nate solidifies him as a legitimate player at 170 and may end his days at lightweight.

For Marcus, a victory puts him back in the middle of the pack where he was for the majority of 2006-2008.

The breakdown:

Despite what some are saying, I do not believe Nate holds an advantage wherever this fight goes.  Marcus is by far the superior boxer and should get the better of the stand-up, reach disadvantage notwithstanding.

On the ground, this is no contest.  While Davis has shown himself to be slippery on the canvas, he is not in Nate’s league.  Diaz’s main objective should be to shoot, trip or throw the Hand Grenade to the ground however he can.

I say:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

2) Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

How we got here:

Demian was originally scheduled to face Alan Belcher in the next Fight Night Main event, but injury sidelined the Mississippian.

Joe Silva did some shuffling and Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares is the Fight Night feature bout and Miranda was matched up with Maia.

What’s at stake:

Maia needs this win after getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva in the infamous UFC 112 main event.  He absolutely cannot afford to lose this fight to a relatively no-name fighter or he risks falling off the map.

Miranda on the other hand can go into this fight with nothing to lose.  Despite a UFC win and an impressive 10-1 record, very few fans know who Mario is.  He now has a chance to pull off the upset and make his presence known.

The breakdown:

Miranda has the striking edge, but Maia has shown improving hands as of late.  Enough to keep him out of trouble.

On the ground, Maia vs. Miranda is roughly equivalent to me vs. a 4-year-old.

I say:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

3) Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

How we got here:

This time last year Kenny Florian was getting trounced by B.J. Penn in his second lightweight title fight.  Since then, he has dominated Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi.  He is now one win away from his third shot at gold.

After his stint on TUF5, Gary Maynard has gone 7-0-1 in the UFC.  Credentials like that usually give a fighter a title shot, but lackluster decision wins have caused the Bully to take the long road to the championship and a fight against Kenny.

What’s at stake:

The next UFC lightweight title shot.

The breakdown:

Can Ken-Flo beat an elite wrestler?  The age-old question will get answered Saturday.

If Gray is smart he takes this to the ground quick and often.  Kenny’s stand-up has been on fire lately and Maynard would be smart to avoid it.

On the ground, Gray has shown the ability to stay out of subs with his smothering style.  It may not be the most exciting, but he is undefeated.  He will need to employ this to get the win – no matter how ugly it may look.

For Kenny, expect him to show the boxing which has looked so good in recent fights.  I don’t think he will be busting out those muay-thai kicks and risk getting taken to the ground.

If Maynard leaves even the slightest of openings for Kenny to score a takedown you can expect the Flo to go for it.  He has not been afraid to test his wrestling skills in the past.  Sometimes he’s successful – Guida.  And sometimes he’s not – Penn.  One thing is for sure, if Gray finds himself on the bottom at any point of this fight he is in deep, deep trouble.

I say:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Randy Couture vs. James Toney

How we got here:

A few months back, James Toney chased Dana White across the country until he got a contract.

Randy got here because he is a big name and probably one of the worst match-ups for the boxing champion.

What’s at stake:

Given how the UFC has promoted this as MMA vs. boxing, the legitimacy of the sport is somewhat on-the-line.  If the Natural gets knocked out, it fuels the fire of boxing fans who in the last 3 or 4 years have had very little to defend their dying sport with against MMA.

No pressure Randy…

The breakdown:

It doesn’t get much more academic than this:

If this fight stays standing longer than 3 minutes: Randy gets the lights turned off.
If this fight stays on the ground for longer than 3 minutes: Toney gets pounded out.

Simple.

I say:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

5) Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

How we got here:

Back at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, Frankie Edgar did the unthinkable when he outlasted then champion B.J. Penn to capture the UFC lightweight title.

The result was controversial so we are now running this thing back in Boston.

What’s at stake:

For B.J.: The opportunity to reclaim his place as the lightweight king.

For Frankie: The opportunity to show the world Abu Dhabi was no fluke.

For both: The UFC lightweight title.

The breakdown:

This is pretty similar to the first fight in the sense that it would appear B.J. is better in all aspects.

So how did Frankie win the first fight?

He won by sticking and moving.  He went inside and was out before B.J. could get a word in edgewise.  He mixed in some well-timed takedowns to score points and was the more aggressive fighter.  Basically, he made it appear like he was the winner and fought the perfect fight.

It will be tough to do that again.

I say:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I will be watching this one in Baltimore with 14 of my peeps after our fantasy football draft.  Big fight atmosphere baby!

Enjoy the fights all.

Stay lucky,
Ken

Going to be a bit strapped for time this week so I just wanted to throw these vids up real quick.

I had no idea they existed, but here are two videos of Frankie Edgar’s family and friends reacting to his victory over B.J. Penn a few months ago.

That’s some genuine joy right there. I can’t wait for the rematch this Saturday - picks to come later this week.

Stay lucky,
Ken

Note: I had about a 1,500 word predictions post ready to roll and lost the entire thing last night around 11pm. I am so freaking frustrated by the whole thing that I can’t bring myself to type it all again and will instead do abbreviated picks. Just thinking about this is making me want to throw a brick through my computer… Always periodically save your work kids.

Not since UFC 85 has a card been as injury-prone as UFC 98. However, unlike 85 where the whole thing felt slapped together at the last second, 98 still looks like an awesome event – injuries be damned.

Lets give out some predictions and be sure to check back Monday for a Post-Mortem to see how I did.

The Undercard:

- George Roop def. Dave Kaplan via decision: I honestly don’t see myself ever being less interested in a fight for as long as I live.

- Yoshiyuki Yoshida def. Brandon Wolff via submission, Rd. 2: Good to see Yoshida back. He outclasses Wolff in this one.

- Krzysztof Soszynski def. Andre Gusmao via TKO, Rd. 2: I’m becoming a big fan of Krzysztof.

- Phillipe Nover def. Kyle Bradley via submission, Rd. 1: Phillipe was supposed to win TUF8, but Efrain had other plans. Still, Nover will start a very successful post-TUF career on Saturday.

- Pat Barry def. Tim Hague via TKO Rd. 1: Barry looks legit.

- Chris Wilson def. Brock Larson via decision: Just a feeling.

Main Card:

Frankie Edgar vs. Sean Sherk

Frankie is a bit too small, but has heart for days – watch Tyson Griffin put him in a kneebar for 30 seconds during their fight if you don’t believe me. A move to the WEC 145-division may be forthcoming.

Sherk is one of the best lightweight in the world no matter what anyone thinks – ‘nuf said.

I’m going to be boring and say that Sherk wins a somewhat lopsided decision through an aggressive top game and more technical boxing when things are standing.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen

Miller is an excellent grappler and has a 3-0 UFC record in less than a year with the company. The signing of the Miller brothers was a great move.

I am in no way sold on Sonnen being anything special. The only win he has against a top guy was a decision over a clearly imbalanced Paulo Filho.

It will be a stalemate on the feet and eventually Sonnen scores a takedown. This will prove fatal as the spry guard of Miller catches him in a submission.

Prediction: Miller, Submission, Rd. 2

Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Something-Pookam

I care so little about this fight that I’m not even going to find Xavier’s last name so I can paste it in. Nover or Barry should be on the main card instead.

I’ll say, for no particularly good reason, that McFedries scores the TKO in the second while getting the better of the stand-up throughout.

Prediction: McFedries, TKO, Rd. 2

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra

In one corner, a loud-mouth from Long Island. In the other, a farmboy from Illinois. Both are former champs and they are the only two men to hold victories over the greatest fighter in the world today.

Call me crazy, but I think Serra takes it. I can see Hughes having taken him lightly and not coming in on top of his game. His knee that he had surgery on will not be at 100% and his takedowns will be affected because of it. Serra drops him with a haymaker in the second and gets a submission from the top.

I know, logic says otherwise, but sometimes you need to go out on a limb.

Prediction: Serra, Submission, Rd. 2

Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida

This is going to be great – no matter what anyone says. I see it being like a great defensive battle in football. Significant offense will be at a premium and the person who makes the first mistake will likely lose.

Machida has been invincible so far and I see it continuing. He will frustrate Rashad for the first two rounds and the champ will resort to his wrestling without success. As the fight continues Machida starts pouring on the offense and eventually scores a late stoppage.

Prediction: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Rd. 4

Here are some picks from my maaaaain man, Nick:

PRELIMINARY CARD

- Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson - Larson, TKO, Rd 1
- Pat Barry vs. Tim Hague - Barry, TKO, Rd. 2
- Kyle Bradley vs. Phillipe Nover - Nover, UD
- Andre Gusmao vs. Krzysztof Soszynski - KS, submission (kimura), Rd. 1
- Brandon Wolff vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - NC. Double Knockout, Round 2
- David Kaplan vs. George Roop - Roop, TKO, Rd. 2

Main Card:

- Frank Edgar vs. Sean Sherk - I’d love to pick Edgar here, he’s one of my faves, but common sense tells me Sherk by UD

- Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen - Miller by UD

- Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs. Drew McFedries - I don’t know enough about XFP, I just don’t think D-Mac has been right his last few fights.

- Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra - I love Matt Serra’s personality. He’s still an average welterweight and isn’t explosive enough to TKO Hughes. Hughes, by an ugly UD

- Champ Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida (for light-heavyweight title) - So, so tough. I think Machida is too smart. I see him winning a very, very close decision. Machida by SD, new champion.

Nick picking the double knockout in Yoshida/Wolff — we like to live dangerously here at Intelligently Defending, folks!

Enjoy what should be a great card!

Check out the UFC 100 Dream Card Contest to win an MMA prize package.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Summer is quickly approaching and the world of MMA is heating up. (See what I did there?)

There are still plenty of awesome fights yet to happen before we reach the official first day of summer on June 21st – so here now are five fights I’m looking forward to before then.

Note: I tried to steer clear of main events just because they were obvious choices.

Honorable Mention: Ray Mercer vs. Tim Sylvia (boxing match): Adrenaline MMA III -June 13

Before you ask, yes, I’m serious.

I know it’s a boxing match and not an MMA fight, but whatever – I can’t wait to see the tape of this. You realize they had to go to Alabama to have this fight because New Jersey thought it was too absurd to sanction? This is going to be great.

I’m also very interested to see how much of the Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex Arena they fill for this thing. It’s a decent size venue that will play host to WWE Raw and a Jonas Brothers concert in the coming months. I would be shocked if they get a quarter of capacity to see Timmy and Ray.

Did I mention this boxing match is going to be held inside an MMA cage? Unreal.

5) Phil Baroni vs. Joe Riggs: Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields - June 6

My main man Phil Baroni has been on a roll since dropping to welterweight and winning three straight fights. Say what you will about his cardio and skills – but, the man never quits and gives it his all every time. I am a huge fan.

Joe Riggs is a solid striker who loves to bang. Look for fireworks in this fight

By the way, any mention of Baroni is a nice opportunity to show this clip:

“I’m da best eva!” – Phil Baroni, UFC 39

4) Ronaldo Souza vs. Jason Miller (for vacant middleweight title): Dream 9 – May 26

In all honesty, I don’t know a whole lot about Souza other than his BJJ is not to be messed with. I do know that Miller is an exciting fighter that always brings the goods

These two fought back in June with Ronaldo getting the decision win with a dominant ground performance. The first go around was an entertaining bout and I expect the second to be the same.

Miller has gone on record as saying “he will not play Souza’s game” this time around which, assumingly, means he won’t go to the ground. If that’s the case, he better have some improved takedown defense this time around.

3) Heath Herring vs. Cain Velasquez: UFC 99 – June 13

The last time we saw Herring he was a mess after going 15 minutes with Brock Lesnar back at UFC 87. I’m not really a fan, but you got to respect the toughness he displayed in that fight. In fact, thinking about it, that PPV had two of the gutsiest performances in recent memory between Heath and Jon Fitch in the main event vs. GSP.

Anyway, I do believe Herring is in for another mugging at the hands of my main man Cain Velasquez who has looked like a beast thus far in the UFC. In all likelihood this will be Cain’s coming out party.

Still, Heath is a gamer and has tons more experience than his much younger rival. You never know what can happen in this sport.

2) Frankie Edgar vs. Sean Sherk: UFC 98 – May 23

I had a dream about this fight the other night and, in it, Frankie wins a convincing decision in which Sherk looks like he has become over the hill. I’m not saying its going to happen – and I don’t think it will – but, if it does, you will most likely be hearing me toot the horn of my psychic powers for months to come.

Anyway, this is a good match-up between a top level lightweight and one of the younger up-and-comers of the division. A win will go a long way on either one’s resume by making a case for Sherk to get another title shot or catapulting Edgar into the upper tier.

1) Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith: Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields - June 6

This was just announced a few days ago and will serve as an excellent co-main event to Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields. The phrase ‘tough-as-nails’ was invented for fighters like this and there should be fireworks on the 6th as both men are coming off huge wins at the last Strikeforce event.

It should be a great fight.

That’s it for today’s list. Feel free to use the comments section to let everyone know which upcoming fights you can’t wait to see.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

I heard Velasquez vs. O’Brien was made official on UFC.com so I ventured over to confirm. Sure enough, it was – which is bad news for O’Brien. Anyway, I decided to click around on the fighter profiles and found some good tidbits on what the fighters on the card think of their opponents.

Here are some of the better quotes:

James Irvin on Anderson Silva:

“I have so much respect for Anderson Silva. I consider it an honor to fight him.”

As I said in an earlier post, Irvin seems like a classy guy.

Brandon Vera on Reese Andy:

“I know he’s a three-time All-American. I see Reese Andy taking me down, and me getting back up. Him taking me down, and me getting back up and then submitting him. That’s how I see it going down. The only thing that makes me nervous about Reese is that he has nothing to lose, and sometimes that’s all somebody needs to make them get to the next level.”

Three-time All-American?!? Hmm, Vera may be in a little deeper than I thought. I knew Andy was somewhat legit, but I had no idea he had those wrestling credentials. His discipline is Greco-Roman which translates well to MMA. This fight just got a little more interesting in my book.

Hermes Franca on Frankie Edgar:

“He’s a great fighter, and a good wrestler. Now that he is training with Ricardo Almeida, I have to be 200% for this fight.”

It’s not like Frankie can develop Almeida’s skills by the 19th, but it’s an interesting tidbit. This is going to be a good one. I wonder if Frankie is going to be willing to keep it standing against the ass-ugly, yet powerful punches of Hermes.

I also noticed that it appears 6 fights are guaranteed to get broadcast – they are really coming out with guns blazing against Affliction. It’s a damn good card for free TV.

Still, I haven’t made up my mind about which event I’ll be watching. I really want to see Fedor vs. Sylvia live, but saving $40 and watching it on the internet while watching the great UFC card for free is mighty tempting.

I’ll tell you one thing – this sure is a sweet dilemma to have.