UFC 118 is Saturday.  Let’s make some picks.

I tried to spruce these up a bit, let me know what you think…

1) Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

How we got here:

After an impressive UFC welterweight debut against Rory Markham, Nate Diaz was ready for a bigger test and Marcus Davis is the man to give it to him.

Davis fell on hard times a few fights back, but recently returned to the win column with a victory over Jonathan ‘Glass Joe’ Goulet.  It’s now time for Marcus to try his luck against a big name opponent.

I also feel like there was some name calling that spawned this match-up, but I may just be imagining that given a Diaz is involved.

What’s at stake:

A win for Nate solidifies him as a legitimate player at 170 and may end his days at lightweight.

For Marcus, a victory puts him back in the middle of the pack where he was for the majority of 2006-2008.

The breakdown:

Despite what some are saying, I do not believe Nate holds an advantage wherever this fight goes.  Marcus is by far the superior boxer and should get the better of the stand-up, reach disadvantage notwithstanding.

On the ground, this is no contest.  While Davis has shown himself to be slippery on the canvas, he is not in Nate’s league.  Diaz’s main objective should be to shoot, trip or throw the Hand Grenade to the ground however he can.

I say:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

2) Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

How we got here:

Demian was originally scheduled to face Alan Belcher in the next Fight Night Main event, but injury sidelined the Mississippian.

Joe Silva did some shuffling and Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares is the Fight Night feature bout and Miranda was matched up with Maia.

What’s at stake:

Maia needs this win after getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva in the infamous UFC 112 main event.  He absolutely cannot afford to lose this fight to a relatively no-name fighter or he risks falling off the map.

Miranda on the other hand can go into this fight with nothing to lose.  Despite a UFC win and an impressive 10-1 record, very few fans know who Mario is.  He now has a chance to pull off the upset and make his presence known.

The breakdown:

Miranda has the striking edge, but Maia has shown improving hands as of late.  Enough to keep him out of trouble.

On the ground, Maia vs. Miranda is roughly equivalent to me vs. a 4-year-old.

I say:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

3) Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

How we got here:

This time last year Kenny Florian was getting trounced by B.J. Penn in his second lightweight title fight.  Since then, he has dominated Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi.  He is now one win away from his third shot at gold.

After his stint on TUF5, Gary Maynard has gone 7-0-1 in the UFC.  Credentials like that usually give a fighter a title shot, but lackluster decision wins have caused the Bully to take the long road to the championship and a fight against Kenny.

What’s at stake:

The next UFC lightweight title shot.

The breakdown:

Can Ken-Flo beat an elite wrestler?  The age-old question will get answered Saturday.

If Gray is smart he takes this to the ground quick and often.  Kenny’s stand-up has been on fire lately and Maynard would be smart to avoid it.

On the ground, Gray has shown the ability to stay out of subs with his smothering style.  It may not be the most exciting, but he is undefeated.  He will need to employ this to get the win – no matter how ugly it may look.

For Kenny, expect him to show the boxing which has looked so good in recent fights.  I don’t think he will be busting out those muay-thai kicks and risk getting taken to the ground.

If Maynard leaves even the slightest of openings for Kenny to score a takedown you can expect the Flo to go for it.  He has not been afraid to test his wrestling skills in the past.  Sometimes he’s successful – Guida.  And sometimes he’s not – Penn.  One thing is for sure, if Gray finds himself on the bottom at any point of this fight he is in deep, deep trouble.

I say:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Randy Couture vs. James Toney

How we got here:

A few months back, James Toney chased Dana White across the country until he got a contract.

Randy got here because he is a big name and probably one of the worst match-ups for the boxing champion.

What’s at stake:

Given how the UFC has promoted this as MMA vs. boxing, the legitimacy of the sport is somewhat on-the-line.  If the Natural gets knocked out, it fuels the fire of boxing fans who in the last 3 or 4 years have had very little to defend their dying sport with against MMA.

No pressure Randy…

The breakdown:

It doesn’t get much more academic than this:

If this fight stays standing longer than 3 minutes: Randy gets the lights turned off.
If this fight stays on the ground for longer than 3 minutes: Toney gets pounded out.

Simple.

I say:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

5) Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

How we got here:

Back at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, Frankie Edgar did the unthinkable when he outlasted then champion B.J. Penn to capture the UFC lightweight title.

The result was controversial so we are now running this thing back in Boston.

What’s at stake:

For B.J.: The opportunity to reclaim his place as the lightweight king.

For Frankie: The opportunity to show the world Abu Dhabi was no fluke.

For both: The UFC lightweight title.

The breakdown:

This is pretty similar to the first fight in the sense that it would appear B.J. is better in all aspects.

So how did Frankie win the first fight?

He won by sticking and moving.  He went inside and was out before B.J. could get a word in edgewise.  He mixed in some well-timed takedowns to score points and was the more aggressive fighter.  Basically, he made it appear like he was the winner and fought the perfect fight.

It will be tough to do that again.

I say:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I will be watching this one in Baltimore with 14 of my peeps after our fantasy football draft.  Big fight atmosphere baby!

Enjoy the fights all.

Stay lucky,
Ken

Edit: I just want to point out that the use of the word “Post-Mortem” and the “what’s next for (insert fighter)” feature pre-dates the column Sherdog now puts out. I’m certainly not saying they stole my idea or anything like that — but, I do want to make sure that everyone knows that I’m not ripping them off.

Let’s see how Fight Night 19 turned out. As always, the grades are based on how I predicted things, not the quality of the fight.

Nate Diaz defeats Melvin Guillard via guillotine in the second.

I said:

It’s going to be tough for Guillard to knockout Nate, which is his only chance to win this fight. As soon as it hits the ground, even with Melvin on top, it’s over. Look for Diaz to get it to the ground midway through the first and lock in the sub.

Prediction: Diaz, Sub, Rd. 1

It wasn’t the correct round and Melvin did a little better on the ground than I thought he would by getting back to his feet in the first round. Still, it was tough to KO Diaz as I predicted – Gulliard rocked him in the first and couldn’t finish – and Nate ended with a sub. So, I’m going high on this.

Ken’s Grade: A- (3.7)

A really fun fight while it lasted. I was very impressed with Melvin in the first. He was playing it smart with his combos and getting to his feet as soon as he would hit the ground. He even had a nice throw towards the end of the round.

In classic Nate fashion, he started slow and ended with a sub. He really needed the win because dropping three in a row would have been rough. That guillotine was as slick as it gets – I don’t know if Guillard was trying a rope-a-dope or something with his shot, but it backfired bit time.

- Melvin’s next fight should be: Chris Lytle on a PPV prelim. That could be a great one.

- Nate’s next fight should be: The loser of Franca/Griffin at 103. He either gets to squash his beef with Tyson or try to avenge an early career loss to Hermes.

Gray Maynard defeats Roger Huerta via split decision

I said:

Maynard will consistently take this to the mat and smother Huerta for 15 minutes. He will work in a decent amount of ground n’ pound, but it won’t be enough to finish the tough-as-nails Matador.

Prediction: Maynard, Decision

I had the result correct, but Maynard really didn’t work in his wrestling until the last frame. I won’t go full monty because of this.

Ken’s Grade: A- (3.7)

How in God’s name did Huerta not tap?!?!?!! That was tough to watch.

I’ve never been a big fan of Huerta, but I ended up cheering for him last night. He showed a lot of heart and looked crisp in his stand-up. If this is his last UFC fight, it wasn’t a bad one to go out on, even if he lost.

I was also impressed with Maynard. He showed solid stand-up and when he finally worked in his wrestling, he was dominant. I also like the submission attempt as it showed he is, in fact, trying to finish fights despite was detractors say.

- Roger’s next fight should be: Jim Miller – though, I fear Huerta’s next payday is in a low-budget - and likely awful - movie.

- Gray’s next fight should be: Sean Sherk – a win there and its hard to argue against Maynard as being the number 1 contender.

Carlos Condit defeats Jake Ellenberger via split decision

I said:

Anyway, Carlos dominates this one with a well-rounded game and finishes with a sub in the second.

Prediction: Condit, Sub, Rd. 2

I had the winner, but not the means of victory. Jake also put up much tougher a fight than I expected. Let’s keep it moderate.

Ken’s grade: B (3.0)

Just like the judges, most people are split on how they scored this fight. The difference in opinions stems from the close second round in which Ellenberger had top position for the first three minutes with Carlos making a comeback in the last two.

Personally, I think Condit clearly took the round. He had a tight Kimura which was the most significant damage of the round, had mount twice, landed the more significant ground and poind, and even when he was on the bottom he scored more strikes than Jake did.

The only thing I can see an argument for would be a 28-28 draw with Ellenberger being given a 10-8 first round. He had Carlos dropped and in a fetal position twice. I don’t know how Condit was able to fight out of it.

In any event, Carlos showed he was the more well-rounded fighter and I’m glad he got the win.

- Jake’s next fight should be: Mike Pyle. The good showing definitely earned Ellenberger another fight in the UFC.

- Carlos next fight should be: The winner of Johnson/Yoshida at 104.

Nate Quarry defeats Tim Credeur via unanimous decision

I said:

I think he’s (Timmy) is in over his head here, though. Quarry is coming off a big win over Jason MacDonald. Look for the heavy-handed Nate to land midway through the second and end things.

Prediction: Quarry, TKO, Rd. 2

I had the winner, but not the means of victory. Quarry did tag him a few times, though. Let’s keep it in the middle.

Ken’s grade: B (3.0)

An sweet fight to start the night between two grizzled-vets.

I was surprised with the combos that Tim was able to land on. He looked pretty good, but still left his chin open and Quarry took advantage twice. The two knockdowns by Nate were what really decided the fight.

I’ll tell you one thing; Tim did more for his name value with this loss and post-fight speech than he has done in his previous three wins.

- Tim’s next fight should be: Kendall Grove – feels like an intriguing fight for some reason.

- Nate’s next fight should be: C.B. Dollaway – I get the feeling this bout gets made.

Ken’s GPA: B+ (3.35) – a solid effort.

Overall, an awesome free night of fights. Between last night and UFC 102, we are officially on a hot streak of great cards.

Here’s hoping it continues into Saturday. Check back for picks tomorrow.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Many apologies for the lack of action around here. The Man has been keeping me down, but I’m back and this time I got some friends with me…

Anyway, Fight Night 19 is upon us, lets get to some picks…

Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard

This is an important fight for both men in terms of staying relevant in the division. The winner will be back on the main card while the loser will find themselves on the prelims – in Guillard’s case, possibly on the unemployment line.

It’s going to be tough for Guillard to knockout Nate, which is his only chance to win this fight. As soon as it hits the ground, even with Melvin on top, it’s over. Look for Diaz to get it to the ground midway through the first and lock in the sub.

Prediction: Diaz, Sub, Rd. 1

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta

It’s been over a year since Roger stepped inside the cage and he is going to run into a buzzsaw in what could be his last UFC appearance.

Maynard will consistently take this to the mat and smother Huerta for 15 minutes. He will work in a decent amount of ground n’ pound, but it won’t be enough to finish the tough-as-nails Matador.

Prediction: Maynard, Decision

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

I admit, I know very little of Ellenberger, but a quick look at his record shows all of his losses are to men Condit would beat (except possibly Hieron, though I think Carlos has that one).

Anyway, Carlos dominates this one with a well-rounded game and finishes with a sub in the second.

Prediction: Condit, Sub, Rd. 2

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

I have become a huge fan of Timmy since TUF7. He seems like a cool dude with a good ground game.

I think he’s in over his head here, though. Quarry is coming off a big win over Jason MacDonald. Look for the heavy-handed Nate to land midway through the second and end things.

Prediction: Quarry, TKO, Rd. 2

That’s it. Check back Thursday for afterthoughts and some UFC 103 picks.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Things have been quiet over here thanks to a week at work that didn’t see me get home before 2:30am on any night - and had me actually sleep at the office one night.

Still, I wanted to get these picks up before the show - no matter how abbreviated they are.  I’m also happy to have picks from my main man - and person somewhat responsible for my terrible week at work - Nick.  This will hopefully be Nick’s first of many contributions to Intelligently Defending.

Here we go…

Ken’s Picks

MAIN CARD

• Quinton Jackson (205) vs. Keith Jardine (204)  Jackson, TKO, Rd. 2
• Shane Carwin (259.5) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (257.5) Carwin, TKO, Rd. 3
• Matt Brown (170.5) vs. Pete Sell (170) Sell, Submission, Rd. 2
• Matt Hamill (205) vs. Mark Munoz (204.5) Hamill, Decision
• Gray Maynard (155) vs. Jim Miller (154.5) Maynard, Decision

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Ryan Madigan (169) vs. Tamdan McCrory (170) McCrory, TKO, Rd. 2
• Jason Day (184.5) vs. Kendall Grove (185) Grove TKO, Rd. 2
• Tim Boetsch (205) vs. Jason Brilz (204) Boetsch, TKO, Rd. 1
• Michael Patt (204.5) vs. Brandon Vera (205) Vera,TKO, Rd. 1
  
• Shane Nelson (155) vs. Aaron Riley (155) Riley, Decision

Nick’s Picks

MAIN CARD

• Quinton Jackson (205) vs. Keith Jardine (204)  Jardine, Split Decision
• Shane Carwin (259.5) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (257.5) Gonzaga, Submission, Rd. 2
• Matt Brown (170.5) vs. Pete Sell (170) Matt Brown, Split Decision
• Matt Hamill (205) vs. Mark Munoz (204.5) Matt Hamill, TKO, Rd. 3
• Gray Maynard (155) vs. Jim Miller (154.5) Maynard, Unanimous Decision

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Ryan Madigan (169) vs. Tamdan McCrory (170) McCrory, Submission, Rd. 2
• Jason Day (184.5) vs. Kendall Grove (185) Grove TKO, Rd. 2
• Tim Boetsch (205) vs. Jason Brilz (204) Boetsch, TKO, Rd. 1
  
• Michael Patt (204.5) vs. Brandon Vera (205) Vera, Unanimous Decision
  
• Shane Nelson (155) vs. Aaron Riley (155) Riley Submission, Rd. 1

I’ve criticized this show in the past, but I’ll be watching like a good fanboy should.  Maybe it will surprise me.

Come back for the Post-Mortem Monday-ish.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

If you read this blog, odds are you have realized that I have a strong allegiance to the UFC. They were the reason I got into MMA and I will usually defend them to the death. On the Sherdog forums I would be referred to as a “UFC nuthugger” - so its a good thing that I would rather drink bleach than ever go to those forums.

With all that said, I can’t defend UFC 96. It looks terrible and I think its outrageous that we are expected to pay for this event.

Let’s take a look…

Main event:

205 lbs.: Quinton Jackson (29-7) vs. Keith Jardine (14-4-1)

I don’t buy this as a main event for a second.

I know Jardine has beat Chuck and Forrest, but I still don’t see him as a main eventer. His performance against Vera was average and he was demolished by both Wanderlei and Houston Alexander. What other headliners have lost two fights in under a minute like that?

Besides all that, if Keith wins – which ain’t happening, but for arguments sake - he doesn’t gain anything except a little more notoriety. He won’t get a title shot like Rampage will because Rashad and he are training partners. There is something about a guy winning a main event and being in the same spot he started at that really bothers me.

At least if The Dean pulls it out, Machida will get his crack at the gold.

Main card (Televised):

205 lbs.: Matt Hamill (5-2) vs. Mark Munoz (5-0)

This is just awful. A co-main event between a guy who was last seen beating Reese Andy and a guy from the WEC? Come on. I know Hamill is from Ohio, but I highly doubt that the locals want this as their co-main event.

Amazing wrestlers or not, neither has shown the prowess inside the Octagon to warrant this spot on the card. Hell, 95% of the audience isn’t even going to know who Munoz is. And don’t tell me it has the potential to be a fun fight because this has snoozer written all over it. God help us all if wrestling gets cancelled out and we are treated to a stand-up war between these two.

And for the record, I like both guys.

265 lbs.: Shane Carwin (10-0) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (10-3)

An awesome fight and the REAL co-main event. Is Carwin for real? Or is Gabriel back?

If I cave at the last second and order this card – which, lets face it, is probably going to happen – it will be because of this fight.

155 lbs.: Jim Miller (13-1) vs. Gray Maynard (6-0)

A legit main card fight – I really can’t bitch much about this one. I like Maynard more than most people and Miller is a very solid fighter. Should be interesting.

170 lbs.: Pete Sell (8-4) vs. Matt Brown (8-7)

OK, I try not to swear too much on this blog because I think it’s a cheap way to write – but are you fucking kidding me?!?!?!

Goddamn, this fight isn’t even worth a main card slot on a Fight Night. Sell vs. Brown on a PPV main card. Really? I mean, REALLY? I don’t bust my ass working for the man so I can pay for this garbage.

Sell is 1-4 in his last 5 UFC fights. 1-4!!! And Brown has an 8-7 record according to Sherdog. This boggles my mind.

Will it be an entertaining slugfest where Goldberg will mention ten billion times how “these guys don’t want to go to the ground, they want to bang”? Sure. But who cares? The winner will slide into about the #18 spot in the welterweight rankings. Sorry if that doesn’t excite me.

Under card (May not be broadcast):

185 lbs.: Kendall Grove (9-5) vs. Jason Day (17-7)
205 lbs.: Tim Boetsch (8-2) vs. Jason Brilz (16-1-1)
205 lbs.: Brandon Vera (9-3) vs. Mike Patt (12-3)
170 lbs.: Ryan Madigan (5-0) vs. Tamdan McCrory
155 lbs.: Aaron Riley (27-10-1) vs. Shane Nelson (11-3)

A pretty standard undercard. I’m really surprised to see Kendall not televised and it will be interesting to see where the Brandon Vera saga goes next.

Overall, it’s just a piss-poor card that I can’t get excited over for the life of me. Of course, the cards you don’t expect to be good sometimes turn out to be great – so here’s hoping.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com