You know, about a week ago I was ready to write this card off completely.  As usual though, I’ve talked myself into it being a barn-burner event with a ton of competitive fights.  I am a puppet and Dana is the puppeteer.

I’m skipping the prelims this time around because, well, I completely forgot to do them.  Much love to C.B. Dollaway though – haters gonna hate, son.

Here are my picks…

1) Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens

How we got here:

I forget who, but someone called someone out in this one. I think it may have been Stephens calling out Guillard after the Stout fight – but I could be wrong.

In any event, Joe Silva thought putting two exciting bangers against each other was a fine idea – so here we are. There has also been quite a bit of trash talk among these two going into Saturday. Pretty sure we can expect fireworks.

What’s at stake:

Both fighters are on a two-fight win streak against mediocre competition. The implications of this fight are identical for both men: Win and stay on the main card and get labeled a ‘contender’. Lose and it’s back to the prelims and continue to look like a fighter who chokes in big spots.

The breakdown:

If you’re a fan of grappling, you may want to run out for some dip during this one. This hits the canvas only because one man falls there as a result of losing touch with consciousness.

The funny thing is that trying to take this fight to the ground would be a sound strategy for both guys. I don’t see either being able to do much off their backs and whoever was on top would have a chance at some lethal ground ‘n pound.

Alas, such logic is beyond these two and we will instead see a highly entertaining brawl with each man swinging for the fences. We know they both have power and are planning on using it.

I say:

This is a tough one to call, but in the end I see Melvin landing something that puts Jeremy to bed.

Stephens is coming off a big win over the more technical Sam Stout, but the Canadian didn’t possess the power that Lil’ Heathen will be facing Saturday night. I think his time with Greg Jackson has helped Melvin seal up some of his deficiencies in his boxing and he should be able to avoid the heavy shots from Jeremy. Look for the Young Assassin to use his speed and catch the Iowa native in the second with a hook and follow up with punches on the ground to end it.

Prediction: Guillard, TKO, Rd. 2

2) Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

How we got here:

Evan Dunham has been on an absolute tear taking out four straight UFC opponents in impressive fashion. He is 11-0 and is in need of a top-level name.

Enter Sean Sherk who has not been seen in over a year since being shocked by now UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar.

What’s at stake:

For Dunham, a win would mean just one or two more victories until he challenges for the gold.

For Sherk, defeating Dunham would show the world that the 37-year-old still has something left in the gas tank and has what it takes to challenge the young lions who are quickly filling up the division.

The breakdown:

Evan will have an enormous reach advantage which will be a problem for Sherk who has favored his boxing in recent years. On the wrestling front, Sean should have the advantage. However, putting Dunham on his back is always a scary thought given his grappling prowess.

Injuries are a huge question for the Muscle Shark. He has pulled out of three consecutive fights due to injury and if he is not 100% on Saturday he has virtually no chance.

I say:

I don’t know why I keep picking the old guys in these ‘grizzled vet vs. young gun’ fights, but I’m going to do it again. Look for some old-school Sherk who repeatedly double legs Dunham and shows vintage top control in route to a decision win.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

3) Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

How we got here:

These two fought four years ago to a controversial decision in the finals of TUF4. Serra was given the nod in a fight where there wasn’t a clear cut winner. The decision would end up changing the UFC Welterweight division forever. (I won’t get into details since as far as I’m concerned TUF4 never happened.)

Anyway, both are coming off wins and since there isn’t much else for them to do at the moment, the UFC decided to run a rematch. Not a bad idea.

What’s at stake:

Not a whole lot to be terribly honest.

I think both men are winding down their careers and we know where both stand at this point. Lytle will be an experienced gamer for years to come. He will put up a fight against anyone in the division and make a nice living off ‘…of the night’ bonus checks. Serra will be a part-time fighter who has a chance no matter who he’s in there with thanks to heavy hands and top-level BJJ. He’s also going to give great sound bites for as long as he’s involved in the sport.

Still, a win or loss here isn’t going to change either man’s standing in the division. If nothing else, at least it will give some closure to a decision that left a bad taste in a lot of fans mouths four years ago.

The breakdown:

Given there is little on the line here as opposed to last time, you can expect both men to open up a bit more this time around. It should lead to an entertaining scrap.

Lytle is the more technical boxer of the two and will likely look to overwhelm Serra on the feet. Chris is a black belt in BJ, but not at the level of Matt. He would be a fool to want to take his chances on the ground with The Terror.

Matty is no slouch in the boxing department himself and probably has the heavier hands of the two. He looked great in knocking out Frank Trigg, but my instincts tell me he would rather get this to the canvas to give himself a better chance at victory. I just hope that strategy doesn’t lead to 100 foot stomps like last time did.

I say:

Finishing Chris Lytle is about as hopeless an endeavor as it gets, but I think Serra can grind a decision. Lytle will get the better of the stand-up and after not finding his home run shot, Serra will look to take things to the ground. My fellow Islander will get things to the ground easier this time around and grind to a decision.

Prediction: Serra, Decision

Fun Fact: Number of Fights since the TUF4 Finale – Lytle 11, Serra 4

4) Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

How we got here:

After an impressive knockout of Keith Jardine, Ryan Bader was in need of a ‘next step’ fight.

Perennial top-ten light-heavyweight Lil’ Nog will give him this fight. Antonio is coming off an uninspired performance against Jason Brilz where he scored a decision win in a fight that many people say he lost. He will look to re-cement himself as a contender in this bout.

What’s at stake:

The winner will most likely fight Jon ‘Bones’ Jones.

If Bader wins, a Jones vs. Darth fight would showcase two of the hottest young talents in the sport. And, if Nog is victorious, a clash with Greg Jackson’s star pupil will mark the biggest test for Jones to date.

Most importantly, a battle with Angry Jonny would likely be a #1 contender’s fight.

The breakdown:

Nogueira has the more technical boxing of the two, but Bader could put you to sleep at any time. Ryan is also improving his stand-up with each fight – the same can’t be said for the Brazilian.

The wrestling advantage will go to the All-American from ASU. He should be able to take Nog down at will, but playing on the mat with a Nogueira Brother is always a dangerous proposition.

It will be interesting to see where Bader decides he has a better chance of winning.

I say:

In the end, I think Ryan decides he would rather win this on the canvas than on the feet. He will bring down Rogerio early using his superior wrestling to score the takedowns along with his strength and underrated BJJ to stay out of submission attempts. Look for this to go on the full 15. Darth will apply some serious ground ‘n pound throughout as he notches his biggest win to date and announces his presence to the division with authority.

Prediction: Bader, Decision (Listen for the bell, Bonesy. It told for thee.)

5) Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipovic

How we got here:

This one was originally scheduled to be Frank Mir vs. Big Nog which would have given me a chance at vindication. Unfortunately, an injury to Antonio forced him to pull out of this fight.

Joe Silva put in a collect call to Croatia and got everyone’s favorite politician/fighter, Mirko CroCop, to step up to the plate. (Note: it’s not that hard to get that title when your only competition is Matt Lindland and Chael Sonnen.)

What’s at stake:

Surprisingly a lot.

It’s arguable that whoever wins could be set-up for a number one contender fight to be third in line after Cain and JDS.

The loser, however, will find themselves at a crossroads of their career. If Mirko loses, I can’t imagine him fighting again. And if Mir goes down, it will be a long time before he has another relevant fight.

The breakdown:

CroCop wants this on the feet at all costs. Finding himself on his back with Mir on top is basically a death sentence. He hasn’t been as sharp as he once was, but Mirko is still dangerous with his hands and I’m willing to bet the left-high kick still packs a wallop.

Mir has a bit more versatility on where he can be in this fight. While being on the ground would give him a decided advantage, he has shown some pretty good stand-up skills lately. Given that we are looking at an older, more injured CroCop, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Frank can hang with him standing.

I say:

I’m looking for some Croatian violence in this one. Mir will get cute with his stand-up early on to show he can go toe-to-toe with the most feared striker in MMA history. This will get him in trouble as CroCop finds a home for his left hand on Frank’s cranium in the second round. From there, Mir will realize he needs to get things to the mat, but it will be too little too late as a now confident Mirko stuffs a takedown and gives a brutal stand-up beating to end things. And, for old time’s sake, let’s say he finishes with his patented LHK.

Prediction: CroCop, TKO, Rd. 2

Enjoy Saturday everyone!

Stay lucky,
Ken

UFC Fight Night 17: Lauzon vs. Stephens is in the books so let’s take a look at how the night, and my predictions, went.

The Undercard:

I said:

Steve Bruno vs. Matt Riddle: Riddle, decision. Got to love the Riddle – I’m banking on some nice progression to his game.

Nick Catone vs. Derek Downey: Catone, decision. No freaking clue.

Gleison Tibau vs. Rich Clementi: Clementi, decision. Here we go, Rich.

Matt Grice vs. Matt Veach: Veach, Submission, Rd. 2. Not positive, but Veach may be the first fighter from Matt Hughes’s HIT Squad in the UFC since Tommy Spear.

Dan Miller vs. Jake Rosholt: Rosholt, TKO, Rd. 2. Rosholt’s a beast – keep an eye on him.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Rob Emerson: Pellegrino, Sub, Rd. 1. Emerson is perhaps my least favorite fighter in MMA – and it doesn’t help his cause that he’s fighting a guy I like. Let’s go Kurt.

I was dead-on with Riddle. I will probably be paying the $2 to order that fight on UFC On-Demand because word is he looked great.

I had Catone winning, but was off on how it would go down. Ditto for Veach.

I was way off on both Clementi/Tibau and Miller/Rosholt.

And I had Pellegrino/Emerson correct with the winner and means of victory.

Overall, not a bad showing – but not spectacular. Let’s keep it moderate. Grade: B (3.0)

Luigi Fioravanti vs. Anthony Johnson

I said:

Unlike most of his fights, Luigi will be the smaller man here. He doesn’t want to stand with Johnson, but he’ll be forced to since “Rumble” has both a wrestling and reach advantage. It’s going to be another addition to the Johnson highlight reel as he catches Luigi late in the second with strikes to drop him for the win.

Prediction: Johnson, TKO, Rd. 2

It was late in the first not the second, but I was pretty damn accurate otherwise. Grade: A- (3.7)

Johnson still looks green at times, but man, he’s impressive. The power is obviously there to go along with his great wrestling that, to this point, has been used as a defense mechanism. He is a super-explosive athlete and at age 24 the sky is the limit.

I don’t think the UFC is ready to put him against the elite just yet – which is smart. His next fight will be a guy with some name value in the middle of the pack. Matt Brown is coming to mind for some reason. Lytle wouldn’t be bad either and would give Anthony a pretty good test.

Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer

I said:

Anyway, this should be good. Both are well-rounded with a ton of fights and are desperate for a win. Danzig gets it after a stand-up fight by securing the takedown and working in a submission in the 2^nd.

Prediction: Danzig, Sud, Rd.2

I had the round and means of victory correct – which, of course, means jack squat because I picked the wrong guy. Still, I had the “this should be good” part right. Grade: C- (1.7)

This was a fun fight with both guys connecting on some strikes and having some spirited tussles on the ground. In the end, Neer was just slicker with that triangle – don’t really know what else to say.

I tell you, Neer really rubs me the wrong way. I’ve never liked him and this fight helped me realize why. His taunting and other shenanigans were annoying as hell. He’s not bad though, I’ll give him that. His striking looked good and ground and pound was vicious - he also ended with a submission which drives home just how well-rounded his skills are.

Fighting Nate Diaz and Danzig in back-to-back fights gives Josh some name recognition and the victory Saturday was pretty huge. He will get a main card fight in his next bout. I could see him being matched-up with Clay Guida.

Mac, Mac, Mac. That’s a 1-2 record now since winning TUF6. He hasn’t looked good for a guy who many had high expectations for after winning the show. There isn’t anything wrong with losing to Guida and Neer, but you got to figure Danzig is as good as he’s going to get. The guy has been around a long time and I don’t see him improving much more from this point on, so if he can’t beat those two there isn’t much hope for him against the division’s elite.

In any case, for his next fight I expect him to be on a PPV prelim against an opponent he can’t possibly lose to. It will probably be an imported fighter that we haven’t seen before. A TUF winner has never dropped three UFC fights in a row – Mac is dangerously close to being the first.

Cain Velasquez vs. Denis Stojnic

I said:

As for this fight, there is no reason to believe that it won’t be a severe mauling of Mr. Stojnic. Cain has said that he may want to test his stand-up against the kickboxer, but smarter heads will prevail. Stojnic goes on his back early in this one and get pounded out in epic fashion.

Prediction: Velasquez, TKO, Rd. 1

It was a beatdown and I had the correct means of victory, but the round was off and I didn’t envision Cain standing that long. Can’t go too high. Grade. B+ (3.3)

I guess Cain really did want to test the waters standing with a good striker and he passed with flying colors. Of course, this all depends on finding out just how good of a striker Stojnic really is – which probably won’t happen since I imagine he gets shown the door after this mauling. Where was I? Oh right, Cain’s stand-up. It looked great. He was hitting solid punches, mixing it up with knees from the clinch and even threw a high-kick or two. When his chance came, he took the fight to the ground and pounded out a victory. It was another great performance by a guy who seems to be picking up the MMA game with ease.

That now makes five career fights for Velasquez which is still such a small amount. I think the UFC can go either way right now. They may give him one more baby fight to let him score another win. Or they could let him test the waters against a veteran like Heath Herring – which would be another win anyway. Right now, I would bank on the former happening.

Joe Lauzon vs. Jeremy Stephens

Look for a stand-up exchange in the beginning with Joe unsuccessfully working for a takedown. In the second, he finally gets to the ground and goes to work. He rains down punches and eventually passes guard where he gets a submission.

Prediction: Lauzon, Sub, Rd. 2

Nicely done, Ken. A Full Monty to close out the card. Grade: A (4.0)

This was another good fight that came down to Joe being the far superior grappler. Stephens had me worried for a bit because he was punching Lauzon hard as hell on the ground. Joe stayed cool under fire though and eventually scored the submission. My favorite part was his transitions on the canvas. His final mount was lightning fast.

Lauzon continues to roll and has now won two in a row since his setback against Kenny Florian. There are a ton of great fights for his next bout: Diaz, Guida, Neer, Danzig, Pellegrino, Franca – the list is endless. I’m interested to see what route the UFC takes.

Ken’s GPA: 3.14 (B) Not bad at all.

Overall, this was a fun card that showcased a bunch of future stars and two of my favorite fighters won impressively. I can’t complain.

Anyone else have thoughts on the night?

-Ken
http//:www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Let’s do it right this time and get the picks in before the event. Post-Mortem to follow Monday-ish.

Undercard:

Steve Bruno vs. Matt Riddle: Riddle, decision. Got to love the Riddle – I’m banking on some nice progression to his game.

Nick Catone vs. Derek Downey: Catone, decision. No freaking clue.

Gleison Tibau vs. Rich Clementi: Clementi, decision. Here we go, Rich.

Matt Grice vs. Matt Veach: Veach, Submission, Rd. 2. Not positive, but Veach may be the first fighter from Matt Hughes’s HIT Squad in the UFC since Tommy Spear.

Dan Miller vs. Jake Rosholt: Rosholt, TKO, Rd. 2. Rosholt’s a beast – keep an eye on him.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Rob Emerson: Pellegrino, Sub, Rd. 1. Emerson is perhaps my least favorite fighter in MMA – and it doesn’t help his cause that he’s fighting a guy I like. Let’s go Kurt.

Main Card:

Luigi Fioravanti vs. Anthony Johnson

One of the most exciting welterweights in UFC takes on one of the blandest. I’ll leave it up to you to decide which is which.

Unlike most of his fights, Luigi will be the smaller man here. He doesn’t want to stand with Johnson, but he’ll be forced to since “Rumble” has both a wrestling and reach advantage. It’s going to be another addition to the Johnson highlight reel as he catches Luigi late in the second with strikes to drop him for the win.

Prediction: Johnson, TKO, Rd. 2

Mac Danzig vs. Josh Neer

I tell you, Danzig has not been handed anything since winning TUF6 - Mark Bocek, Clay Guida and now Neer. That’s a tough line to tow. It’s understandable though, Mac was a seasoned veteran after winning the show and the UFC typically throws those guys right into the mix. Joe Stevenson, for example, had Neer, Yves Edwards and Dokonjonosuke Mishima in his first 3 fights off the show.

Anyway, this should be good. Both are well-rounded with a ton of fights and are desperate for a win. Danzig gets it after a stand-up fight by securing the takedown and working in a submission in the 2^nd.

Prediction: Danzig, Sud, Rd.2

Cain Velasquez vs. Denis Stojnic

Oh baby! My main man Cain Velasquez is back in action.

The guy is a monster and the hype is well-deserved. The UFC seems to be perfectly happy with bringing him along slowly. Shane Carwin came in at the same time as Velasquez and is already fighting Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96 which has raised the ire of some – but not me. Carwin, another absolute beast, is much older and more experienced than Cain so let him get the big spots now and let Velasquez build his name on Fight Nights.

As for this fight, there is no reason to believe that it won’t be a severe mauling of Mr. Stojnic. Cain has said that he may want to test his stand-up against the kickboxer, but smarter heads will prevail. Stojnic goes on his back early in this one and get pounded out in epic fashion.

Prediction: Velasquez, TKO, Rd. 1

Joe Lauzon vs. Jeremy Stephens

Are you telling me I get my main man Cain Velasquez, followed by my main man Joe Lauzon in back-to-back fights? This is going to be a nice little Saturday.

I’m not going to lie: if this were Lauzon vs. Hermes Franca I would have been scared. Joe isn’t ready for a veteran with the grappling prowess of Franca. But, Lauzon vs. Stephens? Fuhgeddaboutit. J-Lau has got this one.

I’ve said before that I think Jeremy is a bit overrated and my opinion hasn’t changed. He may have a power advantage on the feet, but from a technical standpoint I don’t see that as much of a mismatch. On the ground, Joe has a decided advantage and will control the fight once it reaches the canvas.

Look for a stand-up exchange in the beginning with Joe unsuccessfully working for a takedown. In the second, he finally gets to the ground and goes to work. He rains down punches and eventually passes guard where he gets a submission.

Prediction: Lauzon, Sub, Rd. 2

Injuries to Amir Sadollah and Hermes Franca have really taken this card down a few pegs in terms of star power. As I said though, two of my guys are on it so I’m looking forward to it.

Enjoy!

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Myth: Efrain Escudero is going to suffer a loss at the hands of Jeremy Stephens at UFC Fight Night 18.

Reality: Escudero will have little trouble with the somewhat overrated Stephens.

It was recently found out that my main man, and TUF8 lightweight winner, Efrain Escudero will take on Jeremy Stephens in April at Fight Night 18 in his first bout since defeating Phillipe Nover at TUF8 finale.

As soon as this bout was announced, the message boards lit up with talks of “wow, they gave Efrain a tough fight,” “man, they must be mad at Escudero for beating Nover,” and “Stephens is going to maul him.”

Am I missing something here? This is a win for Efrain – and a pretty easy one at that.

It all goes back to the fact that in MMA and sports in general, fans tend to remember someone for their latest actions rather than their entire body of work. In the case of Stephens we have a fighter coming off one of the most brutal KO’s of 2008 when he smashed Rafael dos Anjos with a gnarly uppercut at UFC 91. The punch was spectacular, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that before this Jeremy had a bland 2-2 UFC record and was on his way to a decision loss to dos Anjos.   He has had his chances to break into the next tier in the lightweight division and has failed. 

Efrain will take this fight to the ground whenever he wants and probably work in a submission just like he has done in 9 of his 11 victories. (He damn well better because the Mythbusters feature is on life-support after the Mir/Nog debacle.)

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com