UFC 118 is Saturday.  Let’s make some picks.

I tried to spruce these up a bit, let me know what you think…

1) Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

How we got here:

After an impressive UFC welterweight debut against Rory Markham, Nate Diaz was ready for a bigger test and Marcus Davis is the man to give it to him.

Davis fell on hard times a few fights back, but recently returned to the win column with a victory over Jonathan ‘Glass Joe’ Goulet.  It’s now time for Marcus to try his luck against a big name opponent.

I also feel like there was some name calling that spawned this match-up, but I may just be imagining that given a Diaz is involved.

What’s at stake:

A win for Nate solidifies him as a legitimate player at 170 and may end his days at lightweight.

For Marcus, a victory puts him back in the middle of the pack where he was for the majority of 2006-2008.

The breakdown:

Despite what some are saying, I do not believe Nate holds an advantage wherever this fight goes.  Marcus is by far the superior boxer and should get the better of the stand-up, reach disadvantage notwithstanding.

On the ground, this is no contest.  While Davis has shown himself to be slippery on the canvas, he is not in Nate’s league.  Diaz’s main objective should be to shoot, trip or throw the Hand Grenade to the ground however he can.

I say:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

2) Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

How we got here:

Demian was originally scheduled to face Alan Belcher in the next Fight Night Main event, but injury sidelined the Mississippian.

Joe Silva did some shuffling and Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares is the Fight Night feature bout and Miranda was matched up with Maia.

What’s at stake:

Maia needs this win after getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva in the infamous UFC 112 main event.  He absolutely cannot afford to lose this fight to a relatively no-name fighter or he risks falling off the map.

Miranda on the other hand can go into this fight with nothing to lose.  Despite a UFC win and an impressive 10-1 record, very few fans know who Mario is.  He now has a chance to pull off the upset and make his presence known.

The breakdown:

Miranda has the striking edge, but Maia has shown improving hands as of late.  Enough to keep him out of trouble.

On the ground, Maia vs. Miranda is roughly equivalent to me vs. a 4-year-old.

I say:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

3) Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

How we got here:

This time last year Kenny Florian was getting trounced by B.J. Penn in his second lightweight title fight.  Since then, he has dominated Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi.  He is now one win away from his third shot at gold.

After his stint on TUF5, Gary Maynard has gone 7-0-1 in the UFC.  Credentials like that usually give a fighter a title shot, but lackluster decision wins have caused the Bully to take the long road to the championship and a fight against Kenny.

What’s at stake:

The next UFC lightweight title shot.

The breakdown:

Can Ken-Flo beat an elite wrestler?  The age-old question will get answered Saturday.

If Gray is smart he takes this to the ground quick and often.  Kenny’s stand-up has been on fire lately and Maynard would be smart to avoid it.

On the ground, Gray has shown the ability to stay out of subs with his smothering style.  It may not be the most exciting, but he is undefeated.  He will need to employ this to get the win – no matter how ugly it may look.

For Kenny, expect him to show the boxing which has looked so good in recent fights.  I don’t think he will be busting out those muay-thai kicks and risk getting taken to the ground.

If Maynard leaves even the slightest of openings for Kenny to score a takedown you can expect the Flo to go for it.  He has not been afraid to test his wrestling skills in the past.  Sometimes he’s successful – Guida.  And sometimes he’s not – Penn.  One thing is for sure, if Gray finds himself on the bottom at any point of this fight he is in deep, deep trouble.

I say:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Randy Couture vs. James Toney

How we got here:

A few months back, James Toney chased Dana White across the country until he got a contract.

Randy got here because he is a big name and probably one of the worst match-ups for the boxing champion.

What’s at stake:

Given how the UFC has promoted this as MMA vs. boxing, the legitimacy of the sport is somewhat on-the-line.  If the Natural gets knocked out, it fuels the fire of boxing fans who in the last 3 or 4 years have had very little to defend their dying sport with against MMA.

No pressure Randy…

The breakdown:

It doesn’t get much more academic than this:

If this fight stays standing longer than 3 minutes: Randy gets the lights turned off.
If this fight stays on the ground for longer than 3 minutes: Toney gets pounded out.

Simple.

I say:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

5) Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

How we got here:

Back at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, Frankie Edgar did the unthinkable when he outlasted then champion B.J. Penn to capture the UFC lightweight title.

The result was controversial so we are now running this thing back in Boston.

What’s at stake:

For B.J.: The opportunity to reclaim his place as the lightweight king.

For Frankie: The opportunity to show the world Abu Dhabi was no fluke.

For both: The UFC lightweight title.

The breakdown:

This is pretty similar to the first fight in the sense that it would appear B.J. is better in all aspects.

So how did Frankie win the first fight?

He won by sticking and moving.  He went inside and was out before B.J. could get a word in edgewise.  He mixed in some well-timed takedowns to score points and was the more aggressive fighter.  Basically, he made it appear like he was the winner and fought the perfect fight.

It will be tough to do that again.

I say:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I will be watching this one in Baltimore with 14 of my peeps after our fantasy football draft.  Big fight atmosphere baby!

Enjoy the fights all.

Stay lucky,
Ken

What better way to erase the memory of the Belmont than with some MMA goodness?

Here are some thoughts:

- Werdum defeats Vera Rd1. via TKO

Huge win for Werdum who now has to be considered next in line for a title shot after this Nog/Mir bullshit. Fabricio will get this shot after Nog and Mir coach TUF8 and then fight. So expect a Nog/Werdum showdown in early 2012.

I like Vera but I thought that stoppage was fine. You can’t go into a fetal position with one of the best BJJ practitioners in the world mounted on top of you and then complain when it gets stopped. I was the first person to give Mirgliotta shit after the Kimbo fight, but he did a good job in this one.

- Leites defeats Marquardt via decision

This was a bizarre, though highly entertaining, fight.

The first point deduction on Marquardt was clear. I was actually surprised the fight wasn’t called off at that point since Thales was in la-la land after it. That knee greatly affected his performance. The second deduction for an elbow to the back of the head was a bad call since the strikes were clearly to the side. What can you do?

Don’t look now, but Thales is inching closer to being the next addition to the Anderson Silva highlight reel.

- Swick defeats Davis via decision

I was very dissapointed with my main man Marcus Davis. He never got in a rythm and basically got bullied around by Swick. Its a shame too because he was really starting to get some recognition in that division.

Mike is now 2-0 at welterweight and 7-1 in the UFC. While I’ve never been all that impressed with Swick, 7-1 in the UFC is nothing to sneeze at. How about Swick vs. George Sotiropoulos?

- Bisping defeats Day Rd. 1 via mauling

Wow, Bisping had his fighting shoes on Saturday. He jumped all over Day and never let up. He’s now a very impressive 2-0 at 185. It is clearly where he belongs as he looks much faster.

I smell Bisping vs. Leites on the horizon.

- Alves defeats Hughes Rd. 2 via TKO

Thiago looked impressive in this one. He did a pretty good job avoiding the takedowns and was landing heavy shots. The flying knee that finished things was beautiful.

He now has to be next in line after GSP tears into Fitch. Honestly, I think the heavy-handed Alves poses a bigger threat to Georges just because he has the ability to end things with one strike.

I will never be a big fan of Hughes but he has done some great things recently. He took the fight with GSP after Serra got hurt which he didn’t have to do, he didn’t complain when Alves failed to make weight and he gave Thiago serious props after their fight. Very classy.

I think the old dog has one fight left before calling it a career. This time last year I would be all over the Serra bandwagon, but now I’m not so sure. Between the noble moves by Hughes and the constant, idiotic shit-talking from Serra, I’m going to have a tough time choosing a side. Serra and his brother are starting to become a real embarrasement to the Island.

Prelims:

I just want to note that in the prelims Martin Kampmann made a great return by submitting Jorge Rivera. You got to love a highly-regarded kickboxer who on more than one occasion has shown some slick ground skills. I am a big fan.

Overall:

I was more than happy with this event given the ungodly amount of complications they had putting this card together. Some KO’s, some good fights, a bunch of prelims = solid night in my book.