You know, about a week ago I was ready to write this card off completely.  As usual though, I’ve talked myself into it being a barn-burner event with a ton of competitive fights.  I am a puppet and Dana is the puppeteer.

I’m skipping the prelims this time around because, well, I completely forgot to do them.  Much love to C.B. Dollaway though – haters gonna hate, son.

Here are my picks…

1) Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens

How we got here:

I forget who, but someone called someone out in this one. I think it may have been Stephens calling out Guillard after the Stout fight – but I could be wrong.

In any event, Joe Silva thought putting two exciting bangers against each other was a fine idea – so here we are. There has also been quite a bit of trash talk among these two going into Saturday. Pretty sure we can expect fireworks.

What’s at stake:

Both fighters are on a two-fight win streak against mediocre competition. The implications of this fight are identical for both men: Win and stay on the main card and get labeled a ‘contender’. Lose and it’s back to the prelims and continue to look like a fighter who chokes in big spots.

The breakdown:

If you’re a fan of grappling, you may want to run out for some dip during this one. This hits the canvas only because one man falls there as a result of losing touch with consciousness.

The funny thing is that trying to take this fight to the ground would be a sound strategy for both guys. I don’t see either being able to do much off their backs and whoever was on top would have a chance at some lethal ground ‘n pound.

Alas, such logic is beyond these two and we will instead see a highly entertaining brawl with each man swinging for the fences. We know they both have power and are planning on using it.

I say:

This is a tough one to call, but in the end I see Melvin landing something that puts Jeremy to bed.

Stephens is coming off a big win over the more technical Sam Stout, but the Canadian didn’t possess the power that Lil’ Heathen will be facing Saturday night. I think his time with Greg Jackson has helped Melvin seal up some of his deficiencies in his boxing and he should be able to avoid the heavy shots from Jeremy. Look for the Young Assassin to use his speed and catch the Iowa native in the second with a hook and follow up with punches on the ground to end it.

Prediction: Guillard, TKO, Rd. 2

2) Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

How we got here:

Evan Dunham has been on an absolute tear taking out four straight UFC opponents in impressive fashion. He is 11-0 and is in need of a top-level name.

Enter Sean Sherk who has not been seen in over a year since being shocked by now UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar.

What’s at stake:

For Dunham, a win would mean just one or two more victories until he challenges for the gold.

For Sherk, defeating Dunham would show the world that the 37-year-old still has something left in the gas tank and has what it takes to challenge the young lions who are quickly filling up the division.

The breakdown:

Evan will have an enormous reach advantage which will be a problem for Sherk who has favored his boxing in recent years. On the wrestling front, Sean should have the advantage. However, putting Dunham on his back is always a scary thought given his grappling prowess.

Injuries are a huge question for the Muscle Shark. He has pulled out of three consecutive fights due to injury and if he is not 100% on Saturday he has virtually no chance.

I say:

I don’t know why I keep picking the old guys in these ‘grizzled vet vs. young gun’ fights, but I’m going to do it again. Look for some old-school Sherk who repeatedly double legs Dunham and shows vintage top control in route to a decision win.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

3) Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

How we got here:

These two fought four years ago to a controversial decision in the finals of TUF4. Serra was given the nod in a fight where there wasn’t a clear cut winner. The decision would end up changing the UFC Welterweight division forever. (I won’t get into details since as far as I’m concerned TUF4 never happened.)

Anyway, both are coming off wins and since there isn’t much else for them to do at the moment, the UFC decided to run a rematch. Not a bad idea.

What’s at stake:

Not a whole lot to be terribly honest.

I think both men are winding down their careers and we know where both stand at this point. Lytle will be an experienced gamer for years to come. He will put up a fight against anyone in the division and make a nice living off ‘…of the night’ bonus checks. Serra will be a part-time fighter who has a chance no matter who he’s in there with thanks to heavy hands and top-level BJJ. He’s also going to give great sound bites for as long as he’s involved in the sport.

Still, a win or loss here isn’t going to change either man’s standing in the division. If nothing else, at least it will give some closure to a decision that left a bad taste in a lot of fans mouths four years ago.

The breakdown:

Given there is little on the line here as opposed to last time, you can expect both men to open up a bit more this time around. It should lead to an entertaining scrap.

Lytle is the more technical boxer of the two and will likely look to overwhelm Serra on the feet. Chris is a black belt in BJ, but not at the level of Matt. He would be a fool to want to take his chances on the ground with The Terror.

Matty is no slouch in the boxing department himself and probably has the heavier hands of the two. He looked great in knocking out Frank Trigg, but my instincts tell me he would rather get this to the canvas to give himself a better chance at victory. I just hope that strategy doesn’t lead to 100 foot stomps like last time did.

I say:

Finishing Chris Lytle is about as hopeless an endeavor as it gets, but I think Serra can grind a decision. Lytle will get the better of the stand-up and after not finding his home run shot, Serra will look to take things to the ground. My fellow Islander will get things to the ground easier this time around and grind to a decision.

Prediction: Serra, Decision

Fun Fact: Number of Fights since the TUF4 Finale – Lytle 11, Serra 4

4) Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

How we got here:

After an impressive knockout of Keith Jardine, Ryan Bader was in need of a ‘next step’ fight.

Perennial top-ten light-heavyweight Lil’ Nog will give him this fight. Antonio is coming off an uninspired performance against Jason Brilz where he scored a decision win in a fight that many people say he lost. He will look to re-cement himself as a contender in this bout.

What’s at stake:

The winner will most likely fight Jon ‘Bones’ Jones.

If Bader wins, a Jones vs. Darth fight would showcase two of the hottest young talents in the sport. And, if Nog is victorious, a clash with Greg Jackson’s star pupil will mark the biggest test for Jones to date.

Most importantly, a battle with Angry Jonny would likely be a #1 contender’s fight.

The breakdown:

Nogueira has the more technical boxing of the two, but Bader could put you to sleep at any time. Ryan is also improving his stand-up with each fight – the same can’t be said for the Brazilian.

The wrestling advantage will go to the All-American from ASU. He should be able to take Nog down at will, but playing on the mat with a Nogueira Brother is always a dangerous proposition.

It will be interesting to see where Bader decides he has a better chance of winning.

I say:

In the end, I think Ryan decides he would rather win this on the canvas than on the feet. He will bring down Rogerio early using his superior wrestling to score the takedowns along with his strength and underrated BJJ to stay out of submission attempts. Look for this to go on the full 15. Darth will apply some serious ground ‘n pound throughout as he notches his biggest win to date and announces his presence to the division with authority.

Prediction: Bader, Decision (Listen for the bell, Bonesy. It told for thee.)

5) Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipovic

How we got here:

This one was originally scheduled to be Frank Mir vs. Big Nog which would have given me a chance at vindication. Unfortunately, an injury to Antonio forced him to pull out of this fight.

Joe Silva put in a collect call to Croatia and got everyone’s favorite politician/fighter, Mirko CroCop, to step up to the plate. (Note: it’s not that hard to get that title when your only competition is Matt Lindland and Chael Sonnen.)

What’s at stake:

Surprisingly a lot.

It’s arguable that whoever wins could be set-up for a number one contender fight to be third in line after Cain and JDS.

The loser, however, will find themselves at a crossroads of their career. If Mirko loses, I can’t imagine him fighting again. And if Mir goes down, it will be a long time before he has another relevant fight.

The breakdown:

CroCop wants this on the feet at all costs. Finding himself on his back with Mir on top is basically a death sentence. He hasn’t been as sharp as he once was, but Mirko is still dangerous with his hands and I’m willing to bet the left-high kick still packs a wallop.

Mir has a bit more versatility on where he can be in this fight. While being on the ground would give him a decided advantage, he has shown some pretty good stand-up skills lately. Given that we are looking at an older, more injured CroCop, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Frank can hang with him standing.

I say:

I’m looking for some Croatian violence in this one. Mir will get cute with his stand-up early on to show he can go toe-to-toe with the most feared striker in MMA history. This will get him in trouble as CroCop finds a home for his left hand on Frank’s cranium in the second round. From there, Mir will realize he needs to get things to the mat, but it will be too little too late as a now confident Mirko stuffs a takedown and gives a brutal stand-up beating to end things. And, for old time’s sake, let’s say he finishes with his patented LHK.

Prediction: CroCop, TKO, Rd. 2

Enjoy Saturday everyone!

Stay lucky,
Ken

We had a couple of fights announced for UFC 119 recently that I wanted to touch on:

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader

I tell you what, for an undefeated, TUF winner Ryan Bader really flies under the radar.

Seriously, he is a well-spoken, seemingly good dude with top-notch wrestling and improving hands. I’ve thought he is the next big thing for awhile, but the guy seems to get no publicity. I think some of it has to do with the rise of Jon Jones who has taken all the ‘future champ’ talk in the light-heavyweight division.

In any event, this is Bader’s official ‘next level’ fight. Despite his awful performance against Jason Brilz, Lil’ Nog is still a top-flight fighter and if Bader is gets past him he will officially crack the upper-echelon of that division.

Early thoughts are that Bader is in for a monster performance and takes this home.

Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

I didn’t see this rematch coming, but I don’t mind it.

These two squared off at the TUF4 finale in a terrible stalemate that saw Serra foot-stomp Lights Out roughly 4,322 times. I actually think Lytle won the decision, but the judges saw otherwise. The rest is history.

Think of the possibilities had had Lytle won that fight. Does he go on to beat GSP as well? Is GSP quicker to take him to the ground and control him ala Matt Hughes – thus never losing his title? If GSP defeated Chris, would he have eventually got knocked out by someone else - causing him to develop the grapple first, strike second style that he employs now? We will never know.

Anyway, this fight is as close as the first time. Hopefully, it is more entertaining than the original.

Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk

Here we have another underrated fighter in Evan Dunham taking on the old-vet in Sean Sherk.

This may be the Muscle Shark’s last stand. We haven’t seen him over a year when Frankie Edgar shocked the MMA world with a win over the former champ. Sherk, who was thought to be the second-best fighter in the division not long ago, is suddenly old and appears to be vulnerable.

If Dunham pulls off the win it will be consecutive victories over Efrain Escudero, Tyson Griffin and Sherk. That’s quite a resume and will put the young upstart right in the thick of things. Though, I think the Shark has some tricks up his sleeve.

-Ken
http://IntelligentlyDefending.com

Note: I had about a 1,500 word predictions post ready to roll and lost the entire thing last night around 11pm. I am so freaking frustrated by the whole thing that I can’t bring myself to type it all again and will instead do abbreviated picks. Just thinking about this is making me want to throw a brick through my computer… Always periodically save your work kids.

Not since UFC 85 has a card been as injury-prone as UFC 98. However, unlike 85 where the whole thing felt slapped together at the last second, 98 still looks like an awesome event – injuries be damned.

Lets give out some predictions and be sure to check back Monday for a Post-Mortem to see how I did.

The Undercard:

- George Roop def. Dave Kaplan via decision: I honestly don’t see myself ever being less interested in a fight for as long as I live.

- Yoshiyuki Yoshida def. Brandon Wolff via submission, Rd. 2: Good to see Yoshida back. He outclasses Wolff in this one.

- Krzysztof Soszynski def. Andre Gusmao via TKO, Rd. 2: I’m becoming a big fan of Krzysztof.

- Phillipe Nover def. Kyle Bradley via submission, Rd. 1: Phillipe was supposed to win TUF8, but Efrain had other plans. Still, Nover will start a very successful post-TUF career on Saturday.

- Pat Barry def. Tim Hague via TKO Rd. 1: Barry looks legit.

- Chris Wilson def. Brock Larson via decision: Just a feeling.

Main Card:

Frankie Edgar vs. Sean Sherk

Frankie is a bit too small, but has heart for days – watch Tyson Griffin put him in a kneebar for 30 seconds during their fight if you don’t believe me. A move to the WEC 145-division may be forthcoming.

Sherk is one of the best lightweight in the world no matter what anyone thinks – ‘nuf said.

I’m going to be boring and say that Sherk wins a somewhat lopsided decision through an aggressive top game and more technical boxing when things are standing.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen

Miller is an excellent grappler and has a 3-0 UFC record in less than a year with the company. The signing of the Miller brothers was a great move.

I am in no way sold on Sonnen being anything special. The only win he has against a top guy was a decision over a clearly imbalanced Paulo Filho.

It will be a stalemate on the feet and eventually Sonnen scores a takedown. This will prove fatal as the spry guard of Miller catches him in a submission.

Prediction: Miller, Submission, Rd. 2

Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Something-Pookam

I care so little about this fight that I’m not even going to find Xavier’s last name so I can paste it in. Nover or Barry should be on the main card instead.

I’ll say, for no particularly good reason, that McFedries scores the TKO in the second while getting the better of the stand-up throughout.

Prediction: McFedries, TKO, Rd. 2

Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra

In one corner, a loud-mouth from Long Island. In the other, a farmboy from Illinois. Both are former champs and they are the only two men to hold victories over the greatest fighter in the world today.

Call me crazy, but I think Serra takes it. I can see Hughes having taken him lightly and not coming in on top of his game. His knee that he had surgery on will not be at 100% and his takedowns will be affected because of it. Serra drops him with a haymaker in the second and gets a submission from the top.

I know, logic says otherwise, but sometimes you need to go out on a limb.

Prediction: Serra, Submission, Rd. 2

Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida

This is going to be great – no matter what anyone says. I see it being like a great defensive battle in football. Significant offense will be at a premium and the person who makes the first mistake will likely lose.

Machida has been invincible so far and I see it continuing. He will frustrate Rashad for the first two rounds and the champ will resort to his wrestling without success. As the fight continues Machida starts pouring on the offense and eventually scores a late stoppage.

Prediction: Lyoto Machida, TKO, Rd. 4

Here are some picks from my maaaaain man, Nick:

PRELIMINARY CARD

- Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson - Larson, TKO, Rd 1
- Pat Barry vs. Tim Hague - Barry, TKO, Rd. 2
- Kyle Bradley vs. Phillipe Nover - Nover, UD
- Andre Gusmao vs. Krzysztof Soszynski - KS, submission (kimura), Rd. 1
- Brandon Wolff vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - NC. Double Knockout, Round 2
- David Kaplan vs. George Roop - Roop, TKO, Rd. 2

Main Card:

- Frank Edgar vs. Sean Sherk - I’d love to pick Edgar here, he’s one of my faves, but common sense tells me Sherk by UD

- Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen - Miller by UD

- Xavier Foupa-Pokam vs. Drew McFedries - I don’t know enough about XFP, I just don’t think D-Mac has been right his last few fights.

- Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra - I love Matt Serra’s personality. He’s still an average welterweight and isn’t explosive enough to TKO Hughes. Hughes, by an ugly UD

- Champ Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida (for light-heavyweight title) - So, so tough. I think Machida is too smart. I see him winning a very, very close decision. Machida by SD, new champion.

Nick picking the double knockout in Yoshida/Wolff — we like to live dangerously here at Intelligently Defending, folks!

Enjoy what should be a great card!

Check out the UFC 100 Dream Card Contest to win an MMA prize package.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Poor time management on my part has kept me from making a post today, but for your reading pleasure I am going to post a column I wrote last August for MMArated regarding Hughes vs. Serra.

Note: This was originally written when these two were supposed to fight in January.

Originally published 8/17/08

by Ken Kobel, MMARated.com

So, Matt Hughes recently announced that his long-awaited fight with Matt Serra will happen around January.

Oh baby, it’s going down! Hughes…Serra…Let’s settle this thing!

Um, wasn’t that fight supposed to happen a year ago? Hmmm, not exactly compelling stuff.

It’s no one’s fault, by the way. Injuries happen in this sport and sometimes you have to make due with the hand you’re dealt. However, when Matt Serra went down with a back injury before UFC 79 all the sizzle this fight ever had went out the window. In its place will be an overhyped grudge match between two fighters that fans care less and less about as each day passes.

Let’s recap what led us to this point:

1) Serra goes down with a back injury and withdraws from his scheduled title fight against Hughes at UFC 79. GSP fills in for the champ.

2) GSP manhandles Matt Hughes in one of the single greatest performances in MMA history.

3) At UFC 83, St-Pierre pummels Serra who puts up as much resistance as Glass Joe. Serra loses the welterweight title and has cork firmly stuffed into his never-shutting mouth. Notions of him being a one-hit wonder are cemented in the minds of many.

4) In a noble display, Hughes tries to salvage the injury-ridden UFC 85 by agreeing to fight Thiago Alves in the main event. For his efforts, Matt is thoroughly battered and tears his MCL as he gets knocked out. See what happens when you try to be a nice guy, Matt?

So, here we are today. In one corner, a loudmouth from Long Island who, despite being a better fighter than most give him credit, has only beaten one top fighter in his career. In the other corner, the greatest welterweight of all-time who, unfortunately, has looked like a shell of his former self in his last two fights. Can you feel the drama?

I understand that this fight isn’t about titles or being the number one contender. It’s about the rivalry, but, really, does anyone even care about that anymore? TUF 6 will have been completed for over a year by the time this bout happens. It was a terrible season that, in the end, produced only two solid fighters (Mac Danzig and George Sotiropoulos).

If nothing else, at least this whole episode showed the UFC that sometimes things don’t go as planned and, because of this, it isn’t smart to put belts on hold for extended periods of time just to film a season of “The Ultimate Fighter.”

Oh wait…

For the record, as we draw closer, I am excited for this fight - along with the rest of UFC 98. Also, I would add Ben Saunders to the list of solid TUF6 products.

Potpourri tomorrow.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com