You know, about a week ago I was ready to write this card off completely.  As usual though, I’ve talked myself into it being a barn-burner event with a ton of competitive fights.  I am a puppet and Dana is the puppeteer.

I’m skipping the prelims this time around because, well, I completely forgot to do them.  Much love to C.B. Dollaway though – haters gonna hate, son.

Here are my picks…

1) Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens

How we got here:

I forget who, but someone called someone out in this one. I think it may have been Stephens calling out Guillard after the Stout fight – but I could be wrong.

In any event, Joe Silva thought putting two exciting bangers against each other was a fine idea – so here we are. There has also been quite a bit of trash talk among these two going into Saturday. Pretty sure we can expect fireworks.

What’s at stake:

Both fighters are on a two-fight win streak against mediocre competition. The implications of this fight are identical for both men: Win and stay on the main card and get labeled a ‘contender’. Lose and it’s back to the prelims and continue to look like a fighter who chokes in big spots.

The breakdown:

If you’re a fan of grappling, you may want to run out for some dip during this one. This hits the canvas only because one man falls there as a result of losing touch with consciousness.

The funny thing is that trying to take this fight to the ground would be a sound strategy for both guys. I don’t see either being able to do much off their backs and whoever was on top would have a chance at some lethal ground ‘n pound.

Alas, such logic is beyond these two and we will instead see a highly entertaining brawl with each man swinging for the fences. We know they both have power and are planning on using it.

I say:

This is a tough one to call, but in the end I see Melvin landing something that puts Jeremy to bed.

Stephens is coming off a big win over the more technical Sam Stout, but the Canadian didn’t possess the power that Lil’ Heathen will be facing Saturday night. I think his time with Greg Jackson has helped Melvin seal up some of his deficiencies in his boxing and he should be able to avoid the heavy shots from Jeremy. Look for the Young Assassin to use his speed and catch the Iowa native in the second with a hook and follow up with punches on the ground to end it.

Prediction: Guillard, TKO, Rd. 2

2) Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

How we got here:

Evan Dunham has been on an absolute tear taking out four straight UFC opponents in impressive fashion. He is 11-0 and is in need of a top-level name.

Enter Sean Sherk who has not been seen in over a year since being shocked by now UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar.

What’s at stake:

For Dunham, a win would mean just one or two more victories until he challenges for the gold.

For Sherk, defeating Dunham would show the world that the 37-year-old still has something left in the gas tank and has what it takes to challenge the young lions who are quickly filling up the division.

The breakdown:

Evan will have an enormous reach advantage which will be a problem for Sherk who has favored his boxing in recent years. On the wrestling front, Sean should have the advantage. However, putting Dunham on his back is always a scary thought given his grappling prowess.

Injuries are a huge question for the Muscle Shark. He has pulled out of three consecutive fights due to injury and if he is not 100% on Saturday he has virtually no chance.

I say:

I don’t know why I keep picking the old guys in these ‘grizzled vet vs. young gun’ fights, but I’m going to do it again. Look for some old-school Sherk who repeatedly double legs Dunham and shows vintage top control in route to a decision win.

Prediction: Sherk, Decision

3) Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

How we got here:

These two fought four years ago to a controversial decision in the finals of TUF4. Serra was given the nod in a fight where there wasn’t a clear cut winner. The decision would end up changing the UFC Welterweight division forever. (I won’t get into details since as far as I’m concerned TUF4 never happened.)

Anyway, both are coming off wins and since there isn’t much else for them to do at the moment, the UFC decided to run a rematch. Not a bad idea.

What’s at stake:

Not a whole lot to be terribly honest.

I think both men are winding down their careers and we know where both stand at this point. Lytle will be an experienced gamer for years to come. He will put up a fight against anyone in the division and make a nice living off ‘…of the night’ bonus checks. Serra will be a part-time fighter who has a chance no matter who he’s in there with thanks to heavy hands and top-level BJJ. He’s also going to give great sound bites for as long as he’s involved in the sport.

Still, a win or loss here isn’t going to change either man’s standing in the division. If nothing else, at least it will give some closure to a decision that left a bad taste in a lot of fans mouths four years ago.

The breakdown:

Given there is little on the line here as opposed to last time, you can expect both men to open up a bit more this time around. It should lead to an entertaining scrap.

Lytle is the more technical boxer of the two and will likely look to overwhelm Serra on the feet. Chris is a black belt in BJ, but not at the level of Matt. He would be a fool to want to take his chances on the ground with The Terror.

Matty is no slouch in the boxing department himself and probably has the heavier hands of the two. He looked great in knocking out Frank Trigg, but my instincts tell me he would rather get this to the canvas to give himself a better chance at victory. I just hope that strategy doesn’t lead to 100 foot stomps like last time did.

I say:

Finishing Chris Lytle is about as hopeless an endeavor as it gets, but I think Serra can grind a decision. Lytle will get the better of the stand-up and after not finding his home run shot, Serra will look to take things to the ground. My fellow Islander will get things to the ground easier this time around and grind to a decision.

Prediction: Serra, Decision

Fun Fact: Number of Fights since the TUF4 Finale – Lytle 11, Serra 4

4) Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

How we got here:

After an impressive knockout of Keith Jardine, Ryan Bader was in need of a ‘next step’ fight.

Perennial top-ten light-heavyweight Lil’ Nog will give him this fight. Antonio is coming off an uninspired performance against Jason Brilz where he scored a decision win in a fight that many people say he lost. He will look to re-cement himself as a contender in this bout.

What’s at stake:

The winner will most likely fight Jon ‘Bones’ Jones.

If Bader wins, a Jones vs. Darth fight would showcase two of the hottest young talents in the sport. And, if Nog is victorious, a clash with Greg Jackson’s star pupil will mark the biggest test for Jones to date.

Most importantly, a battle with Angry Jonny would likely be a #1 contender’s fight.

The breakdown:

Nogueira has the more technical boxing of the two, but Bader could put you to sleep at any time. Ryan is also improving his stand-up with each fight – the same can’t be said for the Brazilian.

The wrestling advantage will go to the All-American from ASU. He should be able to take Nog down at will, but playing on the mat with a Nogueira Brother is always a dangerous proposition.

It will be interesting to see where Bader decides he has a better chance of winning.

I say:

In the end, I think Ryan decides he would rather win this on the canvas than on the feet. He will bring down Rogerio early using his superior wrestling to score the takedowns along with his strength and underrated BJJ to stay out of submission attempts. Look for this to go on the full 15. Darth will apply some serious ground ‘n pound throughout as he notches his biggest win to date and announces his presence to the division with authority.

Prediction: Bader, Decision (Listen for the bell, Bonesy. It told for thee.)

5) Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipovic

How we got here:

This one was originally scheduled to be Frank Mir vs. Big Nog which would have given me a chance at vindication. Unfortunately, an injury to Antonio forced him to pull out of this fight.

Joe Silva put in a collect call to Croatia and got everyone’s favorite politician/fighter, Mirko CroCop, to step up to the plate. (Note: it’s not that hard to get that title when your only competition is Matt Lindland and Chael Sonnen.)

What’s at stake:

Surprisingly a lot.

It’s arguable that whoever wins could be set-up for a number one contender fight to be third in line after Cain and JDS.

The loser, however, will find themselves at a crossroads of their career. If Mirko loses, I can’t imagine him fighting again. And if Mir goes down, it will be a long time before he has another relevant fight.

The breakdown:

CroCop wants this on the feet at all costs. Finding himself on his back with Mir on top is basically a death sentence. He hasn’t been as sharp as he once was, but Mirko is still dangerous with his hands and I’m willing to bet the left-high kick still packs a wallop.

Mir has a bit more versatility on where he can be in this fight. While being on the ground would give him a decided advantage, he has shown some pretty good stand-up skills lately. Given that we are looking at an older, more injured CroCop, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Frank can hang with him standing.

I say:

I’m looking for some Croatian violence in this one. Mir will get cute with his stand-up early on to show he can go toe-to-toe with the most feared striker in MMA history. This will get him in trouble as CroCop finds a home for his left hand on Frank’s cranium in the second round. From there, Mir will realize he needs to get things to the mat, but it will be too little too late as a now confident Mirko stuffs a takedown and gives a brutal stand-up beating to end things. And, for old time’s sake, let’s say he finishes with his patented LHK.

Prediction: CroCop, TKO, Rd. 2

Enjoy Saturday everyone!

Stay lucky,
Ken

Edit: I just want to point out that the use of the word “Post-Mortem” and the “what’s next for (insert fighter)” feature pre-dates the column Sherdog now puts out. I’m certainly not saying they stole my idea or anything like that — but, I do want to make sure that everyone knows that I’m not ripping them off.

Let’s see how Fight Night 19 turned out. As always, the grades are based on how I predicted things, not the quality of the fight.

Nate Diaz defeats Melvin Guillard via guillotine in the second.

I said:

It’s going to be tough for Guillard to knockout Nate, which is his only chance to win this fight. As soon as it hits the ground, even with Melvin on top, it’s over. Look for Diaz to get it to the ground midway through the first and lock in the sub.

Prediction: Diaz, Sub, Rd. 1

It wasn’t the correct round and Melvin did a little better on the ground than I thought he would by getting back to his feet in the first round. Still, it was tough to KO Diaz as I predicted – Gulliard rocked him in the first and couldn’t finish – and Nate ended with a sub. So, I’m going high on this.

Ken’s Grade: A- (3.7)

A really fun fight while it lasted. I was very impressed with Melvin in the first. He was playing it smart with his combos and getting to his feet as soon as he would hit the ground. He even had a nice throw towards the end of the round.

In classic Nate fashion, he started slow and ended with a sub. He really needed the win because dropping three in a row would have been rough. That guillotine was as slick as it gets – I don’t know if Guillard was trying a rope-a-dope or something with his shot, but it backfired bit time.

- Melvin’s next fight should be: Chris Lytle on a PPV prelim. That could be a great one.

- Nate’s next fight should be: The loser of Franca/Griffin at 103. He either gets to squash his beef with Tyson or try to avenge an early career loss to Hermes.

Gray Maynard defeats Roger Huerta via split decision

I said:

Maynard will consistently take this to the mat and smother Huerta for 15 minutes. He will work in a decent amount of ground n’ pound, but it won’t be enough to finish the tough-as-nails Matador.

Prediction: Maynard, Decision

I had the result correct, but Maynard really didn’t work in his wrestling until the last frame. I won’t go full monty because of this.

Ken’s Grade: A- (3.7)

How in God’s name did Huerta not tap?!?!?!! That was tough to watch.

I’ve never been a big fan of Huerta, but I ended up cheering for him last night. He showed a lot of heart and looked crisp in his stand-up. If this is his last UFC fight, it wasn’t a bad one to go out on, even if he lost.

I was also impressed with Maynard. He showed solid stand-up and when he finally worked in his wrestling, he was dominant. I also like the submission attempt as it showed he is, in fact, trying to finish fights despite was detractors say.

- Roger’s next fight should be: Jim Miller – though, I fear Huerta’s next payday is in a low-budget - and likely awful - movie.

- Gray’s next fight should be: Sean Sherk – a win there and its hard to argue against Maynard as being the number 1 contender.

Carlos Condit defeats Jake Ellenberger via split decision

I said:

Anyway, Carlos dominates this one with a well-rounded game and finishes with a sub in the second.

Prediction: Condit, Sub, Rd. 2

I had the winner, but not the means of victory. Jake also put up much tougher a fight than I expected. Let’s keep it moderate.

Ken’s grade: B (3.0)

Just like the judges, most people are split on how they scored this fight. The difference in opinions stems from the close second round in which Ellenberger had top position for the first three minutes with Carlos making a comeback in the last two.

Personally, I think Condit clearly took the round. He had a tight Kimura which was the most significant damage of the round, had mount twice, landed the more significant ground and poind, and even when he was on the bottom he scored more strikes than Jake did.

The only thing I can see an argument for would be a 28-28 draw with Ellenberger being given a 10-8 first round. He had Carlos dropped and in a fetal position twice. I don’t know how Condit was able to fight out of it.

In any event, Carlos showed he was the more well-rounded fighter and I’m glad he got the win.

- Jake’s next fight should be: Mike Pyle. The good showing definitely earned Ellenberger another fight in the UFC.

- Carlos next fight should be: The winner of Johnson/Yoshida at 104.

Nate Quarry defeats Tim Credeur via unanimous decision

I said:

I think he’s (Timmy) is in over his head here, though. Quarry is coming off a big win over Jason MacDonald. Look for the heavy-handed Nate to land midway through the second and end things.

Prediction: Quarry, TKO, Rd. 2

I had the winner, but not the means of victory. Quarry did tag him a few times, though. Let’s keep it in the middle.

Ken’s grade: B (3.0)

An sweet fight to start the night between two grizzled-vets.

I was surprised with the combos that Tim was able to land on. He looked pretty good, but still left his chin open and Quarry took advantage twice. The two knockdowns by Nate were what really decided the fight.

I’ll tell you one thing; Tim did more for his name value with this loss and post-fight speech than he has done in his previous three wins.

- Tim’s next fight should be: Kendall Grove – feels like an intriguing fight for some reason.

- Nate’s next fight should be: C.B. Dollaway – I get the feeling this bout gets made.

Ken’s GPA: B+ (3.35) – a solid effort.

Overall, an awesome free night of fights. Between last night and UFC 102, we are officially on a hot streak of great cards.

Here’s hoping it continues into Saturday. Check back for picks tomorrow.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com

Many apologies for the lack of action around here. The Man has been keeping me down, but I’m back and this time I got some friends with me…

Anyway, Fight Night 19 is upon us, lets get to some picks…

Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard

This is an important fight for both men in terms of staying relevant in the division. The winner will be back on the main card while the loser will find themselves on the prelims – in Guillard’s case, possibly on the unemployment line.

It’s going to be tough for Guillard to knockout Nate, which is his only chance to win this fight. As soon as it hits the ground, even with Melvin on top, it’s over. Look for Diaz to get it to the ground midway through the first and lock in the sub.

Prediction: Diaz, Sub, Rd. 1

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta

It’s been over a year since Roger stepped inside the cage and he is going to run into a buzzsaw in what could be his last UFC appearance.

Maynard will consistently take this to the mat and smother Huerta for 15 minutes. He will work in a decent amount of ground n’ pound, but it won’t be enough to finish the tough-as-nails Matador.

Prediction: Maynard, Decision

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

I admit, I know very little of Ellenberger, but a quick look at his record shows all of his losses are to men Condit would beat (except possibly Hieron, though I think Carlos has that one).

Anyway, Carlos dominates this one with a well-rounded game and finishes with a sub in the second.

Prediction: Condit, Sub, Rd. 2

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

I have become a huge fan of Timmy since TUF7. He seems like a cool dude with a good ground game.

I think he’s in over his head here, though. Quarry is coming off a big win over Jason MacDonald. Look for the heavy-handed Nate to land midway through the second and end things.

Prediction: Quarry, TKO, Rd. 2

That’s it. Check back Thursday for afterthoughts and some UFC 103 picks.

-Ken
http://www.IntelligentlyDefending.com