UFC 118 is in the books; let’s see how the fights went down and how my picks went.

Note: The grades are based on how well I picked the fight and NOT on how good the fight was.

1) Nate Diaz defeats Marcus Davis via submission, Rd. 3

I said:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

Nate actually got the better of Marcus on the feet thanks to his reach.  Other than that though, I was pretty damn close outside of the round.  Let’s keep it high.  Grade: B+

Nate looked sensational here taking the fight right to Marcus and using some patented Diaz-brothers striking in the process.  Once he got things to the ground, it was academic as he locked in the choke.  Davis was game, but he was no match for the Stockton native who appears to really be coming into his own these days.  All he needs to do is to improve his wrestling and he could be a real player.

Next for Davis:  I’ve always been a fan of the Hand Grenade and I hope he gets one more shot inside the Octagon.  How about a fight with Matt Brown?  Loser leaves town.

Next for Diaz:  The biggest question here is will Nate stay at welterweight or move back down to lightweight.  If he stays, I wouldn’t mind seeing him try to avenge his brother’s loss to Diego Sanchez.  If he goes back down, I think a fight with my main man Joe Lauzon (who looked awesome Saturday) could be a main event for a Fight Night – maybe even the next TUF finale.

2) Gray Maynard defeats Kenny Florian via decision

I said:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

Damn.  Grade: F

Given my love for Kenny Florian and the role he’s played in my passion for the sport, this one was tough to watch.  Maynard came and did exactly what he needed to do – all the props in the world to him.  Kenny had no answer for Gray’s wrestling and it’s going to be a long way back to the top of the ladder.

Next for Florian:  Kenny is no spring chicken and if he ever wants to get another title shot he will have to go on a run starting right now.  I imagine he jumps right back into a fight against a top guy next time out.  The winner of Sherk/Dunham wouldn’t be bad.

Next for Maynard: A well-deserved lightweight title shot and rematch with Frankie Edgar.

3) Demian Maia defeats Mario Miranda via decision

I said:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

Maia did everything but finish the fight.  While I was wrong that this would be quick, it still was complete domination.  So I’ll call it decent.  Grade: B

Demian put on a clinic in this one, unfortunately, he really could have used a finish to cement his status as being back.  It seemed like he was tapping people with ease back when he first arrived in the UFC.  Of course, to be fair, Miranda’s ground game is better than he was getting credit for – including from yours truly.

Next for Miranda: A prelim fight - perhaps against Tim Creuder.

Next for Maia: I think a fight with the Chris Leben would make sense for both guys.  It’s a classic striker vs. grappler match-up and whichever guy wins will most likely be in the top-5 contenders in the middleweight division.

4) Randy Couture defeats James Toney via submission Rd. 1

I said:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

I actually had the means of victory wrong so let’s call it right below perfect.  Grade: A-

(Not that I’m tooting my own horn – after all, Stevie Wonder saw this coming.  By the way, why can’t Stevie Wonder see his friends?

Because he’s married…  Thank you, thank you – try the veal.)

This whole thing was absurd.  Only thing I can really say is the low single-leg was pretty cool.  Also, Dana can no longer claim he never puts on freak show fights.  Double negative, whatevs I do what I want.

Next for Toney: Maybe a fight in Strikeforce against Brett Rogers.

Next for Couture:  This is a tough call.  I know there is a lot of talk of returning to light-heavyweight and fights with the winner of Machida/Rampage or Anderson Silva but I’d like to see him stay at heavyweight and fight the winner of Mir/Cro-Cop.

5) Frankie Edgar defeats B.J. Penn via decision

I said:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I don’t usually toot my own horn – but, toot! toot!  You don’t hit the nail on the head on an upset call much harder than that.  Grade: A

We saw the end of an era Saturday as the little guy from Toms River took it to the once invincible Hawaiian warrior.  Frankie won in every aspect and I was particularly impressed with the amount of shots he landed on the feet and significant damage he did on the ground.  B.J. was a broken man by the third.  The win was picture perfect.

Next for Penn: A lot of soul-searching.  In the end, I think he makes a cameo in the welterweight division – maybe against Jon Fitch – but after mixed results announces his retirement from the sport.

Next for Frankie: A tangle with a Bully by the bike racks after school.

Going to be a busy one, but I’ll try to get a few more updates in before the week is over.

Stay lucky,
Ken

UFC 118 is Saturday.  Let’s make some picks.

I tried to spruce these up a bit, let me know what you think…

1) Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

How we got here:

After an impressive UFC welterweight debut against Rory Markham, Nate Diaz was ready for a bigger test and Marcus Davis is the man to give it to him.

Davis fell on hard times a few fights back, but recently returned to the win column with a victory over Jonathan ‘Glass Joe’ Goulet.  It’s now time for Marcus to try his luck against a big name opponent.

I also feel like there was some name calling that spawned this match-up, but I may just be imagining that given a Diaz is involved.

What’s at stake:

A win for Nate solidifies him as a legitimate player at 170 and may end his days at lightweight.

For Marcus, a victory puts him back in the middle of the pack where he was for the majority of 2006-2008.

The breakdown:

Despite what some are saying, I do not believe Nate holds an advantage wherever this fight goes.  Marcus is by far the superior boxer and should get the better of the stand-up, reach disadvantage notwithstanding.

On the ground, this is no contest.  While Davis has shown himself to be slippery on the canvas, he is not in Nate’s league.  Diaz’s main objective should be to shoot, trip or throw the Hand Grenade to the ground however he can.

I say:

Davis will get the better of the stand-up, but it will not be enough to put the Stockton native away.  As we get a little later into the fight, young Diaz will finally secure a takedown and work towards a submission win.

Prediction: Diaz, Submission, Rd. 2

2) Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

How we got here:

Demian was originally scheduled to face Alan Belcher in the next Fight Night Main event, but injury sidelined the Mississippian.

Joe Silva did some shuffling and Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares is the Fight Night feature bout and Miranda was matched up with Maia.

What’s at stake:

Maia needs this win after getting embarrassed by Anderson Silva in the infamous UFC 112 main event.  He absolutely cannot afford to lose this fight to a relatively no-name fighter or he risks falling off the map.

Miranda on the other hand can go into this fight with nothing to lose.  Despite a UFC win and an impressive 10-1 record, very few fans know who Mario is.  He now has a chance to pull off the upset and make his presence known.

The breakdown:

Miranda has the striking edge, but Maia has shown improving hands as of late.  Enough to keep him out of trouble.

On the ground, Maia vs. Miranda is roughly equivalent to me vs. a 4-year-old.

I say:

Maia is going to waste little time taking this to the ground.  Once there, it’s sayonara as Demian reminds us what he is all about.

Prediction: Maia, Submission, Rd. 1

3) Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

How we got here:

This time last year Kenny Florian was getting trounced by B.J. Penn in his second lightweight title fight.  Since then, he has dominated Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi.  He is now one win away from his third shot at gold.

After his stint on TUF5, Gary Maynard has gone 7-0-1 in the UFC.  Credentials like that usually give a fighter a title shot, but lackluster decision wins have caused the Bully to take the long road to the championship and a fight against Kenny.

What’s at stake:

The next UFC lightweight title shot.

The breakdown:

Can Ken-Flo beat an elite wrestler?  The age-old question will get answered Saturday.

If Gray is smart he takes this to the ground quick and often.  Kenny’s stand-up has been on fire lately and Maynard would be smart to avoid it.

On the ground, Gray has shown the ability to stay out of subs with his smothering style.  It may not be the most exciting, but he is undefeated.  He will need to employ this to get the win – no matter how ugly it may look.

For Kenny, expect him to show the boxing which has looked so good in recent fights.  I don’t think he will be busting out those muay-thai kicks and risk getting taken to the ground.

If Maynard leaves even the slightest of openings for Kenny to score a takedown you can expect the Flo to go for it.  He has not been afraid to test his wrestling skills in the past.  Sometimes he’s successful – Guida.  And sometimes he’s not – Penn.  One thing is for sure, if Gray finds himself on the bottom at any point of this fight he is in deep, deep trouble.

I say:

Do you really need to ask?

Kenny has more ways to win this fight, is always improving and, oh yea, it’s in Beantown baby.  Beantown!

I think Maynard finds taking down Kenny is no easy task and after a few unsuccessful he is forced to stand and trade.  Kenny gets comfortable and in the second round starts to open up.  He clips the Bully and then gets the big guy down ala the Guida fight.  From there, he works for mount and pounds his way to a win and another title shot.

Prediction: Florian, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Randy Couture vs. James Toney

How we got here:

A few months back, James Toney chased Dana White across the country until he got a contract.

Randy got here because he is a big name and probably one of the worst match-ups for the boxing champion.

What’s at stake:

Given how the UFC has promoted this as MMA vs. boxing, the legitimacy of the sport is somewhat on-the-line.  If the Natural gets knocked out, it fuels the fire of boxing fans who in the last 3 or 4 years have had very little to defend their dying sport with against MMA.

No pressure Randy…

The breakdown:

It doesn’t get much more academic than this:

If this fight stays standing longer than 3 minutes: Randy gets the lights turned off.
If this fight stays on the ground for longer than 3 minutes: Toney gets pounded out.

Simple.

I say:

Toney is on his back within the first 30 seconds and it’s over soon after.

Prediction: Couture, TKO, Rd. 1

5) Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

How we got here:

Back at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi, Frankie Edgar did the unthinkable when he outlasted then champion B.J. Penn to capture the UFC lightweight title.

The result was controversial so we are now running this thing back in Boston.

What’s at stake:

For B.J.: The opportunity to reclaim his place as the lightweight king.

For Frankie: The opportunity to show the world Abu Dhabi was no fluke.

For both: The UFC lightweight title.

The breakdown:

This is pretty similar to the first fight in the sense that it would appear B.J. is better in all aspects.

So how did Frankie win the first fight?

He won by sticking and moving.  He went inside and was out before B.J. could get a word in edgewise.  He mixed in some well-timed takedowns to score points and was the more aggressive fighter.  Basically, he made it appear like he was the winner and fought the perfect fight.

It will be tough to do that again.

I say:

While it will be tough to do it again – do it again he will.

Call this a gut instinct, but I think an even better Frankie Edgar comes in for this fight and this time wins things outright with no controversy.  I expect much of the same with Frankie moving in and out of range, scoring a few takedowns and being able to do more damage on both fronts this time around.

Someone call up the Situation, Snooki, JWOWW and the rest of the gang down at Seaside because Frankie is having his victory party at Karma - with Pauly D. on the 1’s and 2’s.

Prediction: Edgar, Decision

I will be watching this one in Baltimore with 14 of my peeps after our fantasy football draft.  Big fight atmosphere baby!

Enjoy the fights all.

Stay lucky,
Ken

UFC 118 is a few days away so let’s take a quick look at the prelims:

Spike TV Prelims

1) Nik Lentz vs. Andre Winner

Lentz has the wrestling advantage for sure coming out of Minnesota Martial Arts Academy. Winner will be the better striker, but his problems will be keeping the fight upright.

In the end, Lentz grinds to a decision.

Prediction: Lentz, Decision

2) Gabe Reudiger vs. Joe Lauzon

I’m pumped for this one as my maaaaain man Joe Lauzon makes his return to the Octagon to take on Gabe Reudiger who hasn’t fought in the UFC in four years. Unless you count his stint on TUF5 – which I’m sure Gabe tries to forget everyday.

Joe took a beating at the hands of Sam Stout in his last fight, but I am confident he will be much better in his second bout back after a year on the shelf due to injury. Gabe has won six in a row in the minor leagues, but he will not be able to handle Joe’s grappling in this one.

Prediction: Lauzon, submission, Rd. 2

By the way, this card has four TUF5 fighters (Lauzon, Reudiger, Maynard and Diaz) and one TUF5 coach (Penn). That might be a record for a PPV– though I am too lazy to research it.

Under card

3) Nick Osipczak vs. Greg Soto

Osipczak – though a complete dick – isn’t half bad. He gave Matt Riddle his only loss and took the highly touted Rick Story to a split decision.

I see the Brit outclassing Soto wherever the fight goes and eventually ending things with some dynamic striking and ground ‘n pound.

Prediction: Osipczak, TKO, Rd. 2

4) Dan Miller vs. John Salter

After 3 straight victories to start his UFC career, Miller has dropped a trio of fights. This is do or die time for the Dirty Jerz native. If he losses this one, the pink slip will be waiting in the locker room.

And you know what? I think Salter has got this.

These will be two similar styles, but Salter will get the better of what turns into an ugly kickboxing match to score the decision.

Prediction: Salter, Decision

5) Amilcar Alves vs. Mike Pierce

I really don’t know a lot about either guy, but Pierce put up a helluva fight against Jon Fitch in December and then beat Julio Paulino next time out.

So I’ll go with the American to use his wrestling to win the decision. Even though I think he may be the underdog according to Vegas.

Prediction: Pierce, Decision

Check back tomorrow for some new and improved main card picks.

Stay lucky,
Ken